Daily Papers

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate invariant parts and temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt the Hodge-Laplacian operator for edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

LawZero's Scientist AI trains a Predictor toward the Bayesian posterior, with an objective that penalizes inconsistent probabilities among latent explanations. We ask whether current frontier language models, with no such training, are already consistent in this sense zero-shot: do their probability judgments satisfy the law of total probability, P(X)=sum_z P(z)P(X|z), when the latent z must be inferred from records in the context? In separate single-turn calls, models are asked for P(X), for P(z) over the latent's states, and for P(X|z); a causal family applies the same test to P(y|do(x)) and the back-door adjustment. Every query has an exact ground-truth probability, and a subset of items is asked in three wordings to separate persistent incoherence from rewording noise. Across seven models, GPT-6.1 Sol and Claude Opus 5.5 are the most coherent (mean absolute residual 0.08 and 0.12 log-odds, about 2 percentage points). Claude Haiku 5.5, Gemini 3.8 Flash and DeepSeek V4-Pro show persistent incoherence (0.27-0.35 log-odds) that is mostly item-specific rather than a shared offset. Within every model, larger residuals go with larger errors against the truth (Spearman 0.40-0.62), so the residual, which needs no ground truth, flags unreliable answers. Reasoning length does not predict coherence, across models or within a model across rewordings of the same question. Simple consistency checks pass almost everywhere; the failures are specific to reasoning through a latent variable. Code and data: https://github.com/ppotash/latent-coherence

Egocentric Referring Video Object Segmentation (Ego-RVOS) aims to segment the specific object actively involved in a human action, as described by a language query, within first-person videos. This task is critical for understanding egocentric human behavior. However, achieving such segmentation robustly is challenging due to ambiguities inherent in egocentric videos and biases present in training data. Consequently, existing methods often struggle, learning spurious correlations from skewed object-action pairings in datasets and fundamental visual confounding factors of the egocentric perspective, such as rapid motion and frequent occlusions. To address these limitations, we introduce Causal Ego-REferring Segmentation (CERES), a plug-in causal framework that adapts strong, pre-trained RVOS backbones to the egocentric domain. CERES implements dual-modal causal intervention: applying backdoor adjustment principles to counteract language representation biases learned from dataset statistics, and leveraging front-door adjustment concepts to address visual confounding by intelligently integrating semantic visual features with geometric depth information guided by causal principles, creating representations more robust to egocentric distortions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CERES achieves state-of-the-art performance on Ego-RVOS benchmarks, highlighting the potential of applying causal reasoning to build more reliable models for broader egocentric video understanding.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have emerged as a central focus in both industry and academia, but often suffer from biases introduced by visual and language priors, which can lead to multimodal hallucination. These biases arise from the visual encoder and the Large Language Model (LLM) backbone, affecting the attention mechanism responsible for aligning multimodal inputs. Existing decoding-based mitigation methods focus on statistical correlations and overlook the causal relationships between attention mechanisms and model output, limiting their effectiveness in addressing these biases. To tackle this issue, we propose a causal inference framework termed CausalMM that applies structural causal modeling to MLLMs, treating modality priors as a confounder between attention mechanisms and output. Specifically, by employing backdoor adjustment and counterfactual reasoning at both the visual and language attention levels, our method mitigates the negative effects of modality priors and enhances the alignment of MLLM's inputs and outputs, with a maximum score improvement of 65.3% on 6 VLind-Bench indicators and 164 points on MME Benchmark compared to conventional methods. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach while being a plug-and-play solution. Our code is available at: https://github.com/The-Martyr/CausalMM

Prior image-text matching methods have shown remarkable performance on many benchmark datasets, but most of them overlook the bias in the dataset, which exists in intra-modal and inter-modal, and tend to learn the spurious correlations that extremely degrade the generalization ability of the model. Furthermore, these methods often incorporate biased external knowledge from large-scale datasets as prior knowledge into image-text matching model, which is inevitable to force model further learn biased associations. To address above limitations, this paper firstly utilizes Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to illustrate how intra- and inter-modal confounders damage the image-text matching. Then, we employ backdoor adjustment to propose an innovative Deconfounded Causal Inference Network (DCIN) for image-text matching task. DCIN (1) decomposes the intra- and inter-modal confounders and incorporates them into the encoding stage of visual and textual features, effectively eliminating the spurious correlations during image-text matching, and (2) uses causal inference to mitigate biases of external knowledge. Consequently, the model can learn causality instead of spurious correlations caused by dataset bias. Extensive experiments on two well-known benchmark datasets, i.e., Flickr30K and MSCOCO, demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method.

Molecular property prediction is becoming one of the major applications of graph learning in Web-based services, e.g., online protein structure prediction and drug discovery. A key challenge arises in few-shot scenarios, where only a few labeled molecules are available for predicting unseen properties. Recently, several studies have used in-context learning to capture relationships among molecules and properties, but they face two limitations in: (1) exploiting prior knowledge of functional groups that are causally linked to properties and (2) identifying key substructures directly correlated with properties. We propose CaMol, a context-aware graph causality inference framework, to address these challenges by using a causal inference perspective, assuming that each molecule consists of a latent causal structure that determines a specific property. First, we introduce a context graph that encodes chemical knowledge by linking functional groups, molecules, and properties to guide the discovery of causal substructures. Second, we propose a learnable atom masking strategy to disentangle causal substructures from confounding ones. Third, we introduce a distribution intervener that applies backdoor adjustment by combining causal substructures with chemically grounded confounders, disentangling causal effects from real-world chemical variations. Experiments on diverse molecular datasets showed that CaMol achieved superior accuracy and sample efficiency in few-shot tasks, showing its generalizability to unseen properties. Also, the discovered causal substructures were strongly aligned with chemical knowledge about functional groups, supporting the model interpretability.

Though notable progress has been made, neural-based aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA) models are prone to learn spurious correlations from annotation biases, resulting in poor robustness on adversarial data transformations. Among the debiasing solutions, causal inference-based methods have attracted much research attention, which can be mainly categorized into causal intervention methods and counterfactual reasoning methods. However, most of the present debiasing methods focus on single-variable causal inference, which is not suitable for ABSA with two input variables (the target aspect and the review). In this paper, we propose a novel framework based on multi-variable causal inference for debiasing ABSA. In this framework, different types of biases are tackled based on different causal intervention methods. For the review branch, the bias is modeled as indirect confounding from context, where backdoor adjustment intervention is employed for debiasing. For the aspect branch, the bias is described as a direct correlation with labels, where counterfactual reasoning is adopted for debiasing. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared to various baselines on the two widely used real-world aspect robustness test set datasets.

Long-tailed learning has garnered increasing attention due to its practical significance. Among the various approaches, the fine-tuning paradigm has gained considerable interest with the advent of foundation models. However, most existing methods primarily focus on leveraging knowledge from these models, overlooking the inherent biases introduced by the imbalanced training data they rely on. In this paper, we examine how such imbalances from pre-training affect long-tailed downstream tasks. Specifically, we find the imbalance biases inherited in foundation models on downstream task as parameter imbalance and data imbalance. During fine-tuning, we observe that parameter imbalance plays a more critical role, while data imbalance can be mitigated using existing re-balancing strategies. Moreover, we find that parameter imbalance cannot be effectively addressed by current re-balancing techniques, such as adjusting the logits, during training, unlike data imbalance. To tackle both imbalances simultaneously, we build our method on causal learning and view the incomplete semantic factor as the confounder, which brings spurious correlations between input samples and labels. To resolve the negative effects of this, we propose a novel backdoor adjustment method that learns the true causal effect between input samples and labels, rather than merely fitting the correlations in the data. Notably, we achieve an average performance increase of about 1.67% on each dataset.

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries - including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment - correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

Gene expression prediction, which predicts mRNA expression levels from DNA sequences, presents significant challenges. Previous works often focus on extending input sequence length to locate distal enhancers, which may influence target genes from hundreds of kilobases away. Our work first reveals that for current models, long sequence modeling can decrease performance. Even carefully designed algorithms only mitigate the performance degradation caused by long sequences. Instead, we find that proximal multimodal epigenomic signals near target genes prove more essential. Hence we focus on how to better integrate these signals, which has been overlooked. We find that different signal types serve distinct biological roles, with some directly marking active regulatory elements while others reflect background chromatin patterns that may introduce confounding effects. Simple concatenation may lead models to develop spurious associations with these background patterns. To address this challenge, we propose Prism, a framework that learns multiple combinations of high-dimensional epigenomic features to represent distinct background chromatin states and uses backdoor adjustment to mitigate confounding effects. Our experimental results demonstrate that proper modeling of multimodal epigenomic signals achieves state-of-the-art performance using only short sequences for gene expression prediction.

Self-consistency assumes the most frequent answer among sampled reasoning traces is the most reliable, but this can fail in causal reasoning: samples often repeat the same confounding error, and votes fragment across multiple valid answers, letting an invalid answer win despite a valid minority trace. We introduce CALVER (Causal Axiom-Level VERification), a training-free symbolic verifier that scores structured traces against Pearl's causal criteria, including -separation, backdoor adjustment, and intervention, and selects the highest-scoring candidate without consulting a reference answer. On CLEAR find-one-valid queries that admit multiple graph-valid answers, CALVER reaches 42.1% where plurality, a reward model, an LLM judge, and model confidence remain near 30% on identical frozen pools. Scaling the judge to 72B does not close the gap. In an audited clean-core subset, 11 of 21 graph-valid CALVER selections differ from the benchmark's listed answer while still satisfying the requested predicate. The advantage widens with the sampling budget and reproduces across ten published Bayesian networks, a second model family, and settings where the model must build the graph from text. CALVER also improves thresholded average-treatment-effect decisions against exact ground truth, generalizes to logic under a truth-table checker, and scores each candidate in milliseconds on CPU. CALVER needs only a causal structure, supplied outright or built from the text; wherever that holds, selection can aggregate via causal validity.