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Apr 14

Physics-guided Deep Markov Models for Learning Nonlinear Dynamical Systems with Uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic physics-guided framework, termed Physics-guided Deep Markov Model (PgDMM). The framework targets the inference of the characteristics and latent structure of nonlinear dynamical systems from measurement data, where exact inference of latent variables is typically intractable. A recently surfaced option pertains to leveraging variational inference to perform approximate inference. In such a scheme, transition and emission functions of the system are parameterized via feed-forward neural networks (deep generative models). However, due to the generalized and highly versatile formulation of neural network functions, the learned latent space often lacks physical interpretation and structured representation. To address this, we bridge physics-based state space models with Deep Markov Models, thus delivering a hybrid modeling framework for unsupervised learning and identification of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed framework takes advantage of the expressive power of deep learning, while retaining the driving physics of the dynamical system by imposing physics-driven restrictions on the side of the latent space. We demonstrate the benefits of such a fusion in terms of achieving improved performance on illustrative simulation examples and experimental case studies of nonlinear systems. Our results indicate that the physics-based models involved in the employed transition and emission functions essentially enforce a more structured and physically interpretable latent space, which is essential for enhancing and generalizing the predictive capabilities of deep learning-based models.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 16, 2021

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) XIII: The Lyman-continuum emission of high-redshift galaxies

The history of reionisation is highly dependent on the ionising properties of high-redshift galaxies. It is therefore important to have a solid understanding of how the ionising properties of galaxies are linked to physical and observable quantities. In this paper, we use the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to study the Lyman-continuum (LyC, i.e. hydrogen-ionising) emission of massive (M_*>10^8,M_odot) galaxies at redshifts z=5-10. We find that the specific ionising emissivity (i.e. intrinsic ionising emissivity per unit stellar mass) decreases as stellar mass increases, due to the combined effects of increasing age and metallicity. FLARES predicts a median ionising photon production efficiency (i.e. intrinsic ionising emissivity per unit intrinsic far-UV luminosity) of log_{10}(xi_{rm ion}/erg^{-1Hz})=25.40^{+0.16}_{-0.17}, with values spanning the range log_{10}(xi_{rm ion}/erg^{-1Hz})=25-25.75. This is within the range of many observational estimates, but below some of the extremes observed. We compare the production efficiency with observable properties, and find a weak negative correlation with the UV-continuum slope, and a positive correlation with the OIII equivalent width. We also consider the dust-attenuated production efficiency (i.e. intrinsic ionising emissivity per unit dust-attenuated far-UV luminosity), and find a median of log_{10}(xi_{rm ion}/erg^{-1Hz})sim25.5. Within our sample of M_*>10^8,M_odot galaxies, it is the stellar populations in low mass galaxies that contribute the most to the total ionising emissivity. Active galactic nuclei (AGN) emission accounts for 10-20 % of the total emissivity at a given redshift, and extends the LyC luminosity function by sim0.5 dex.

  • 13 authors
·
May 29, 2023

First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) II: The Photometric Properties of High-Redshift Galaxies

We present the photometric properties of galaxies in the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES). The simulations trace the evolution of galaxies in a range of overdensities through the Epoch of Reionistion (EoR). With a novel weighting scheme we combine these overdensities, extending significantly the dynamic range of observed composite distribution functions compared to periodic simulation boxes. FLARES predicts a significantly larger number of intrinsically bright galaxies, which can be explained through a simple model linking dust-attenuation to the metal content of the interstellar medium, using a line-of-sight (LOS) extinction model. With this model we present the photometric properties of the FLARES galaxies for z in [5,10]. We show that the ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function (LF) matches the observations at all redshifts. The function is fit by Schechter and double power-law forms, with the latter being favoured at these redshifts by the FLARES composite UV LF. We also present predictions for the UV continuum slope as well as the attenuation in the UV. The impact of environment on the UV LF is also explored, with the brightest galaxies forming in the densest environments. We then present the line luminosity and equivalent widths of some prominent nebular emission lines arising from the galaxies, finding rough agreement with available observations. We also look at the relative contribution of obscured and unobscured star formation, finding comparable contributions at these redshifts.

  • 8 authors
·
Aug 13, 2020

Applying the ACE2 Emulator to SST Green's Functions for the E3SMv3 Climate Model

Green's functions are a useful technique for interpreting atmospheric state responses to changes in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST). Here we train version 2 of the Ai2 Climate Emulator (ACE2) on reference historical SST simulations of the US Department of Energy's EAMv3 global atmosphere model. We compare how well the SST Green's functions generated by ACE2 match those of EAMv3, following the protocol of the Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP). The spatial patterns of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative response from the individual GFMIP SST patch simulations are similar for ACE and the EAMv3 reference. The derived sensitivity of global net TOA radiation sensitivity to SST patch location is qualitatively similar in ACE as in EAMv3, but there are statistically significant discrepancies for some SST patches, especially over the subtropical northeast Pacific. These discrepancies may reflect insufficient diversity in the SST patterns sampled over the course of the EAMv3 AMIP simulation used for training ACE. Both ACE and EAMv3 Green's functions reconstruct the historical record of the global annual-mean TOA radiative flux from a reference EAMv3 AMIP simulation reasonably well. Notably, under our configuration and compute resources, ACE achieves these results approximately 100 times faster in wall-clock time compared to EAMv3, highlighting its potential as a powerful and efficient tool for tackling other computationally intensive problems in climate science.

  • 8 authors
·
May 13, 2025

Soft X-ray line emission from hot gas in intervening galaxy halos and diffuse gas in the cosmic web

Cosmic hot-gas emission is closely related to halo gas acquisition and galactic feedback processes. Their X-ray observations reveal important physical properties and movements of the baryonic cycle of galactic ecosystems. However, the measured emissions toward a target at a cosmological distance would always include contributions from hot gases along the entire line of sight to the target. Observationally, such contaminations are routinely subtracted via different strategies. With this work, we aim to answer an interesting theoretical question regarding the amount of soft X-ray line emissions from intervening hot gases of different origins. We tackled this problem with the aid of the TNG100 simulation. We generated typical wide-field light cones and estimated their impacts on spectral and flux measurements toward X-ray-emitting galaxy-, group- and cluster-halo targets at lower redshifts. We split the intervening hot gases into three categories; that is, the hot gas that is gravitationally bound to either star-forming or quenched galaxy halos, and the diffuse gas, which is more tenuously distributed permeating the cosmic web structures. We find that along a given line of sight, the diffuse gas that permeates the cosmic web structures produces strong oxygen and iron line emissions at different redshifts. The diffuse gas emission in the soft X-ray band can be equal to the emission from hot gases that are gravitationally bound to intervening galaxy halos. The hot-gas emission from the quiescent galaxy halos can be significantly less than that from star-forming halos along the line of sight. The fluxes from all of the line-of-sight emitters as measured in the energy band of 0.4--0.85 keV can reach ~20--200 % of the emission from the target galaxy, group, and cluster halos.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 17, 2025

PDRs4All. XII. FUV-driven formation of hydrocarbon radicals and their relation with PAHs

We present subarcsecond-resolution ALMA mosaics of the Orion Bar PDR in [CI] 609 um, C2H (4-3), and C18O (3-2) emission lines, complemented by JWST images of H2 and aromatic infrared band (AIB) emission. The rim of the Bar shows very corrugated structures made of small-scale H2 dissociation fronts (DFs). The [CI] 609 um emission peaks very close (~0.002 pc) to the main H2-emitting DFs, suggesting the presence of gas density gradients. These DFs are also bright and remarkably similar in C2H emission, which traces 'hydrocarbon radical peaks' characterized by very high C2H abundances, reaching up to several x10^-7. The high abundance of C2H and of related hydrocarbon radicals, such as CH3, CH2, and CH, can be attributed to gas-phase reactions driven by elevated temperatures, the presence of C+ and C, and the reactivity of FUV-pumped H2. The hydrocarbon radical peaks roughly coincide with maxima of the 3.4/3.3 um AIB intensity ratio, a proxy for the aliphatic-to-aromatic content of PAHs. This implies that the conditions triggering the formation of simple hydrocarbons also favor the formation (and survival) of PAHs with aliphatic side groups, potentially via the contribution of bottom-up processes in which abundant hydrocarbon radicals react in situ with PAHs. Ahead of the DFs, in the atomic PDR zone (where [H]>>[H2]), the AIB emission is brightest, but small PAHs and carbonaceous grains undergo photo-processing due to the stronger FUV field. Our detection of trace amounts of C2H in this zone may result from the photoerosion of these species. This study provides a spatially resolved view of the chemical stratification of key carbon carriers in a PDR. Overall, both bottom-up and top-down processes appear to link simple hydrocarbon molecules with PAHs in molecular clouds; however, the exact chemical pathways and their relative contributions remain to be quantified.

  • 28 authors
·
Mar 5, 2025