Daily Papers

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) substantially improves single-sample accuracy (pass@1) but causes the policy's solution space to contract, diminishing the returns of test-time scaling. In this work, we investigate where inside a reasoning trajectory this breadth is lost: does the policy fail to access a valid solution family, or does it fail to execute computation once initiated? To disentangle access from execution, we analyze the Countdown task, whose solution space can be exhaustively enumerated into discrete entrance families defined by the first operand and operator, across PPO on Qwen2.5-3B and GRPO on Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct. Across both training setups, solution coverage falls by up to 67%, halving even on problems solved across all checkpoints. We show that this contraction is heavily concentrated at the entrance: per-token likelihood shifts are 11x--16x larger prior to the first arithmetic operation than during downstream reasoning. Supplying only an unselected entrance prefix restores completion rates in low-access families by over an order of magnitude (0.018 -> 0.212 under PPO), demonstrating that alternative solutions remain executable but are no longer initiated. Guided by this localization, we find that while surface prompting fails to recover diversity, entrance-targeted interventions succeed: late-layer parameter interpolation with early checkpoints increases solution coverage by 37% at no loss in pass@1. Finally, we show that early-step entropy collapse recurs across six math benchmarks with 7B and 14B models, but is not an inevitable byproduct of reasoning optimization: an SFT baseline preserves more than double the coverage, and staged SFT--DPO--RLVR pipelines retain early-step entropy. In summary, reasoning breadth is lost at the door, not inside the room. Code: https://github.com/ershiyidian/early-branch-locking.

Masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) offer the potential for parallel token generation, but most open-source MDLMs decode fewer than 5 tokens per model forward pass even with sophisticated sampling strategies. As a result, their sampling speeds are often comparable to AR + speculative decoding schemes, limiting their advantage over mainstream autoregressive approaches. Existing distillation-based accelerators (dParallel, d3LLM) finetune MDLMs on trajectories generated by a base model, which can become off-policy during finetuning and restrict performance to the quality of the base model's samples. We propose dUltra, an on-policy reinforcement learning framework based on Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) that learns unmasking strategies for efficient parallel decoding. dUltra introduces an unmasking planner head that predicts per-token unmasking likelihoods under independent Bernoulli distributions. We jointly optimize the base diffusion LLM and the unmasking order planner using reward signals combining verifiable reward, distillation reward, and the number of unmasking steps. Across mathematical reasoning and code generation tasks, dUltra improves the accuracy--efficiency trade-off over state-of-the-art heuristic and distillation baselines, moving towards achieving ``diffusion supremacy'' over autoregressive models.

Long-context tasks require LLMs to identify and preserve answer-relevant information from large contexts. Chunk-wise memory agents address this issue by sequentially reading document chunks, updating a compact memory, and generating the final answer from the accumulated memory. However, existing RL-based chunk-wise agents either rely on sparse final-answer rewards or use lexical intermediate rewards for memory and retrieval actions. These signals supervise task success or local overlap, but do not directly evaluate whether the final memory supports the ground-truth answer. We propose InfoMem, a reward mechanism for training chunk-wise memory agents that evaluates final-memory utility using answer-conditioned information. InfoMem measures how much the final memory increases the model's per-token log-likelihood of the ground-truth answer. To stabilize RL optimization, InfoMem applies this signal only to successful trajectories and normalizes it before reward composition. Under the same GRPO framework and training budget, InfoMem improves long-context memory-agent performance over comparable memory-agent RL baselines. Analyses show that effective final-memory rewards should operate on successful trajectories, be normalized before reward composition, and be conditioned on the answer rather than the query. Our code is available at https://github.com/GenSouKa1/InfoMem.

Autoregressive perception models trained to localize visual entities under the open-vocabulary setting are mostly trained using Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with maximum likelihood, yet it optimizes a proxy objective (per-token cross-entropy) that is fundamentally misaligned with perception metrics such as precision and recall. In this paper, we explore post-training reinforcement learning (RL), specifically GRPO, to directly align these models with their evaluation metrics. Building up on the recently introduced Falcon Perception, we design an RL framework that addresses perception-specific challenges: reward design for set-structured outputs and multi-head sampling control. We discover multiple benefits from RL for perception: first, RL unlocks state-of-the-art performance in very dense scenes (up to 500 objects per scene), a regime where most existing systems degrade sharply or collapse; furthermore it fixes common issues in autoregressive perception models like mask repetitions and removes almost entirely the need for NMS and coordinate deduplication, which improve both performance and efficiency and remove the need for hyperparameters tuning; overall, we notice improvements on all levels of difficulties in referring expression segmentation (on PBench and SACO-Gold), and we find an elegant way to preserve the knowledge of whether an object exists or not (as evaluated by MCC) without training on negative samples. We show that a simple reward that penalizes false negatives and positives is sufficient. We develop two hybrid self-annotation pipelines, respectively tailored for difficult referring expressions and very dense scenes, and show their benefits on RL-training. Model weights are released as a Falcon Perception revision~https://huggingface.co/tiiuae/Falcon-Perception. Datasets will be published.

Exploration is essential in modern learning, from reinforcement learning environments with small neural policies to large language models (LLMs). Existing work, such as DPO, leverages full sequence log-likelihoods to capture an entire trajectory of the model's decisions, while methods like GRPO aggregate per-token ratios into a trajectory-level update. However, both often limit exploration on long-horizon tasks. We introduce History-Aggregated Exploratory Policy Optimization (HAEPO), a history-aware exploratory loss to combat these shortcomings. HAEPO compresses each trajectory into the sum of its logarithmic probabilities (a cumulative logarithmic likelihood), and applies a Plackett-Luce softmax across trajectories to obtain normalized weights proportional to their returns, thus encouraging broader exploration. We add entropy regularization to stabilize the aggressive updates to prevent premature collapse and a soft KL penalty relative to a frozen copy of the previous (reference) policy. Empirically, HAEPO converges fast, explores thoroughly, aligns closely with true rewards, and demonstrates robust learning behavior better or at par with PPO, GRPO, and DPO across diverse tasks. Thus, HAEPO provides a stable and interpretable framework by explicitly leveraging full-trajectory history while balancing exploration and stability.

This technical report presents our solution, EgoAdapt (Egocentric Adaptation via Category, Calibration, and Consistency), to the CVPR 2026 HD-EPIC VQA challenge. HD-EPIC evaluates whether a vision-language model can reason over realistic first-person kitchen videos, where the evidence for an answer may be a short hand-object interaction, a long recipe trajectory, a spatial relation to a fixture, or a subtle gaze cue. The benchmark contains 26K multiple-choice questions across seven macro-categories: recipe, ingredient, nutrition, fine-grained action, 3D perception, object motion, and gaze. We observe that the main difficulty is not only model capacity, but also the mismatch between a single generic inference recipe and the heterogeneous temporal, spatial, and semantic structure of the benchmark. Our method, EgoAdapt, introduces three inference-time components: (1) category-conditioned routing with per-category prompts, frame budgets, and sampling rates; (2) calibrated option scoring that evaluates all candidate answers with letter-token likelihoods and generation agreement instead of relying only on direct generation; and (3) test-time consistency adaptation that aggregates predictions across option permutations and verification-style prompts for ambiguous cases. This design substantially improves over the available HD-EPIC baselines.

Autoregressive language models (ARMs) deliver strong likelihoods, but are inherently serial: they generate one token per forward pass, which limits throughput and inflates latency for long sequences. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) parallelize across positions and thus appear promising for language generation, yet standard discrete diffusion typically needs hundreds to thousands of model evaluations to reach high quality, trading serial depth for iterative breadth. We introduce FS-DFM, Few-Step Discrete Flow-Matching. A discrete flow-matching model designed for speed without sacrificing quality. The core idea is simple: make the number of sampling steps an explicit parameter and train the model to be consistent across step budgets, so one big move lands where many small moves would. We pair this with a reliable update rule that moves probability in the right direction without overshooting, and with strong teacher guidance distilled from long-run trajectories. Together, these choices make few-step sampling stable, accurate, and easy to control. On language modeling benchmarks, FS-DFM with 8 sampling steps achieves perplexity parity with a 1,024-step discrete-flow baseline for generating 1,024 tokens using a similar-size model, delivering up to 128 times faster sampling and corresponding latency/throughput gains.

Understanding human visual attention on a scene over time has applications in domains such as interface design and inferring cognitive states. Modeling visual scanpaths has historically relied on specialized architectures with hand-crafted priors. While these architectures can model fixation sequences, their rigid structural biases restrict easy extendability and flexible conditioning. For instance, integrating task-specific instructions or adapting to distinct viewer identities requires custom, disjoint architectural additions. We frame scanpath prediction purely as a discrete sequence modeling task. By mapping coordinates into a text vocabulary, we leverage the pretrained representations of Vision-Language Models. This framing absorbs diverse factors of variation: simple prompting allows for global conditioning, such as providing viewer identities to capture personalized biases, or task-specific objectives like visual search. The framework can also integrate per-fixation attributes, such as individual fixation durations, alongside spatial locations. The autoregressive alignment enables the scalable, exact computation of per-fixation log-likelihoods, directly equivalent to the commonly used Information Gain (IG) metric. Our model, DeepGaze3.5-VL, establishes a new state-of-the-art across multiple datasets, achieving 2.18 bits of IG on MIT1003, a 46% improvement over DeepGaze III. This advantage persists even when baselines use identical high-capacity vision encoders. Beyond predictive performance, our generative framework serves as a powerful computational tool for direct behavioral interventions, allowing for controlled in-silico simulations that would be experimentally difficult or impossible to conduct in vivo. We demonstrate this ability by performing controlled interventions on the durations of pre-saccadic fixations, recovering known oculomotor phenomena purely from data.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for parallel token generation, with block-wise variants garnering significant research interest. Despite their potential, existing dLLMs typically suffer from a rigid accuracy-parallelism trade-off: increasing the number of tokens per forward (TPF) via aggressive parallel decoding often leads to performance degradation and increased generation instability. We identify that this limitation stems from the model's inability to navigate high-parallelism regimes where approximation errors and local corruptions accumulate, ultimately undermining the reliability of parallel generation. To address this, we propose LightningRL, a post-training framework designed to directly optimize the speed-quality Pareto frontier of pre-trained dLLMs. Instead of forcing uniform parallelization, our approach leverages reinforcement learning to identify and reinforce high-parallelism trajectories that maintain generation accuracy. Built upon the Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) framework, LightningRL introduces several enhancements tailored for dLLMs: (1) stabilized training via per-reward decoupled normalization; (2) token-level negative log-likelihood (NLL) regularization on correct trajectories to anchor model performance; and (3) a dynamic sampling strategy with TPF-aware filtering to enhance training efficiency. Experimental results across mathematical and coding benchmarks demonstrate that LightningRL consistently advances the Pareto frontier, achieving competitive task accuracy while significantly increasing parallelism, reaching an average TPF of 7.32 (with a peak of 11.10 on the MBPP dataset). Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DENG-Lab/LightningRL.

The problem of pre-training data detection for large language models (LLMs) has received growing attention due to its implications in critical issues like copyright violation and test data contamination. The current state-of-the-art approach, Min-K%, measures the raw token probability which we argue may not be the most informative signal. Instead, we propose Min-K%++ to normalize the token probability with statistics of the categorical distribution over the whole vocabulary, which accurately reflects the relative likelihood of the target token compared with other candidate tokens in the vocabulary. Theoretically, we back up our method by showing that the statistic it estimates is explicitly optimized during LLM training, thus serving as a reliable indicator for detecting training data. Empirically, on the WikiMIA benchmark, Min-K%++ outperforms the SOTA Min-K% by 6.2% to 10.5% in detection AUROC averaged over five models. On the more challenging MIMIR benchmark, Min-K%++ consistently improves upon Min-K% and performs on par with reference-based method, despite not requiring an extra reference model.

Recent work finds that retrieval-augmented generation with large language models is prone to be influenced by the order of retrieved documents in the context. However, the lack of in-depth analysis limits the use of this phenomenon for prompt engineering in practice. In this study, we posit that likelihoods serve as an effective gauge for language model performance. Through experiments on two question-answering datasets with a variety of state-of-the-art language models, we reveal correlations between answer accuracy and the likelihood of the question at both the corpus level and the instance level. In addition, we find that question likelihood can also indicate the position of the task-relevant information in the context. Based on these findings, we propose two methods that use question likelihood as a gauge for selecting and constructing prompts that lead to better performance. We demonstrate their effectiveness with experiments. In addition, our likelihood-based methods are efficient, as they only need to compute the likelihood of the input, requiring much fewer language model passes than heuristic prompt engineering methods that require generating responses. Our analysis deepens our understanding of how input prompts affect model performance and provides a promising direction for efficient prompt optimization.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Neural text generation is a key tool in natural language applications, but it is well known there are major problems at its core. In particular, standard likelihood training and decoding leads to dull and repetitive outputs. While some post-hoc fixes have been proposed, in particular top-k and nucleus sampling, they do not address the fact that the token-level probabilities predicted by the model are poor. In this paper we show that the likelihood objective itself is at fault, resulting in a model that assigns too much probability to sequences containing repeats and frequent words, unlike those from the human training distribution. We propose a new objective, unlikelihood training, which forces unlikely generations to be assigned lower probability by the model. We show that both token and sequence level unlikelihood training give less repetitive, less dull text while maintaining perplexity, giving superior generations using standard greedy or beam search. According to human evaluations, our approach with standard beam search also outperforms the currently popular decoding methods of nucleus sampling or beam blocking, thus providing a strong alternative to existing techniques.

Contextual entrainment, which is a newly discovered phenomenon in large language models (LLMs), refers to the tendency of a model to assign higher probabilities to tokens that appear in its context. In this work, we extend this phenomenon from the token level to the sentence level by examining the per-token mean log-probability of a sentence instead of the probabilities of individual tokens. We investigate sentence-level contextual entrainment across 26 LLMs from seven families and two datasets, which cover both subjective and objective tasks. We find that sentence-level contextual entrainment exists. This means that the sentences in the prompt (even if they are counterfactual statements) can significantly increase their probability during model inference time. As the model size increases, contextual entrainment gradually decreases. We also find that contextual entrainment is controlled by 2% to 4% of the attention heads. Turning off these attention heads can effectively mitigate contextual entrainment without hurting the model's performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely used to evaluate natural language generation tasks as automated metrics. However, the likelihood, a measure of LLM's plausibility for a sentence, can vary due to superficial differences in sentences, such as word order and sentence structure. It is therefore possible that there might be a likelihood bias if LLMs are used for evaluation: they might overrate sentences with higher likelihoods while underrating those with lower likelihoods. In this paper, we investigate the presence and impact of likelihood bias in LLM-based evaluators. We also propose a method to mitigate the likelihood bias. Our method utilizes highly biased instances as few-shot examples for in-context learning. Our experiments in evaluating the data-to-text and grammatical error correction tasks reveal that several LLMs we test display a likelihood bias. Furthermore, our proposed method successfully mitigates this bias, also improving evaluation performance (in terms of correlation of models with human scores) significantly.

State-of-the-art language models are autoregressive and operate on subword units known as tokens. Specifically, one must encode the conditioning string into a list of tokens before passing to the language models for next-token prediction. We show that popular encoding schemes, such as maximum prefix encoding (MPE) and byte-pair-encoding (BPE), induce a sampling bias that cannot be mitigated with more training or data. To counter this universal problem, for each encoding scheme above, we propose a novel algorithm to obtain unbiased estimates from any language model trained on tokenized data. Our methods do not require finetuning the model, and the complexity, defined as the number of model runs, scales linearly with the sequence length in the case of MPE. As a result, we show that one can simulate token-free behavior from a tokenized language model. We empirically verify the correctness of our method through a Markov-chain setup, where it accurately recovers the transition probabilities, as opposed to the conventional method of directly prompting tokens into the language model.

As large language models (LLMs) are pretrained on massive web corpora, careful selection of data becomes essential to ensure effective and efficient learning. While perplexity (PPL)-based filtering has shown strong performance, it suffers from drawbacks: substantial time costs and inherent unreliability of the model when handling noisy or out-of-distribution samples. In this work, we propose a simple yet powerful alternative: a prior-based data filtering method that estimates token priors using corpus-level term frequency statistics, inspired by linguistic insights on word roles and lexical density. Our approach filters documents based on the mean and standard deviation of token priors, serving as a fast proxy to PPL while requiring no model inference. Despite its simplicity, the prior-based filter achieves the highest average performance across 20 downstream benchmarks, while reducing time cost by over 1000x compared to PPL-based filtering. We further demonstrate its applicability to symbolic languages such as code and math, and its dynamic adaptability to multilingual corpora without supervision

Next token prediction paradigm has been prevailing for autoregressive models in the era of LLMs. The current default sampling choice for popular LLMs is temperature scaling together with nucleus sampling to balance diversity and coherence. Nevertheless, such approach leads to inferior performance in various NLP tasks when the model is not certain about testing questions. To this end, we propose a brand new training-free decoding strategy, dubbed as Cautious Next Token Prediction (CNTP). In the decoding process, if the model has comparatively high prediction entropy at a certain step, we sample multiple trials starting from the step independently and stop when encountering any punctuation. Then we select the trial with the lowest perplexity score viewed as the most probable and reliable trial path given the model's capacity. The trial number is negatively correlated with the prediction confidence, i.e., the less confident the model is, the more trials it should sample. This is consistent with human beings' behaviour: when feeling uncertain or unconfident, one tends to think more creatively, exploring multiple thinking paths, to cautiously select the path one feels most confident about. Extensive experiments on both LLMs and MLLMs show that our proposed CNTP approach outperforms existing standard decoding strategies consistently by a clear margin. Moreover, the integration of CNTP with self consistency can further improve over vanilla self consistency. We believe our proposed CNTP has the potential to become one of the default choices for LLM decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/wyzjack/CNTP.

Large Vision-Language Models (VLMs) enable strong multimodal reasoning but incur heavy inference costs from redundant visual tokens. Token pruning alleviates this issue, yet existing approaches face limitations. Attention-based methods rely on raw attention scores, which are often unstable across layers and heads and can lead to redundant selections. Diversity-based methods improve robustness by selecting tokens far apart in feature space but risk dropping regions needed for accurate prediction. We propose \ours, a training-free framework built on a simple intuition: tokens with higher sensitivity are more likely to influence the model's output, and they should also capture complementary visual cues rather than overlapping information. To achieve this, we estimate token sensitivity using zeroth-order perturbations at the projection layer, a shallow and computationally light component of the model. This approach measures how small random perturbations affect the projection outputs, allowing us to approximate each token's influence through lightweight forward passes without backpropagation. Extensive experiments across multiple VLMs and benchmarks show that \ours consistently outperforms prior methods, pruning up to 94.4\% of tokens while maintaining accuracy and significantly improving efficiency, achieving up to 2.30x faster end-to-end inference over the baseline.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited remarkable performance on reasoning tasks. They utilize autoregressive token generation to construct reasoning trajectories, enabling the development of a coherent chain of thought. In this work, we explore the impact of individual tokens on the final outcomes of reasoning tasks. We identify the existence of ``critical tokens'' that lead to incorrect reasoning trajectories in LLMs. Specifically, we find that LLMs tend to produce positive outcomes when forced to decode other tokens instead of critical tokens. Motivated by this observation, we propose a novel approach - cDPO - designed to automatically recognize and conduct token-level rewards for the critical tokens during the alignment process. Specifically, we develop a contrastive estimation approach to automatically identify critical tokens. It is achieved by comparing the generation likelihood of positive and negative models. To achieve this, we separately fine-tune the positive and negative models on various reasoning trajectories, consequently, they are capable of identifying identify critical tokens within incorrect trajectories that contribute to erroneous outcomes. Moreover, to further align the model with the critical token information during the alignment process, we extend the conventional DPO algorithms to token-level DPO and utilize the differential likelihood from the aforementioned positive and negative model as important weight for token-level DPO learning.Experimental results on GSM8K and MATH500 benchmarks with two-widely used models Llama-3 (8B and 70B) and deepseek-math (7B) demonstrate the effectiveness of the propsoed approach cDPO.

This paper identifies the misinterpretation of the context can be a significant issue during the reasoning process of large language models, spanning from smaller models like Llama3.2-3B-Instruct to cutting-edge ones like DeepSeek-R1. For example, in the phrase "10 dollars per kilo," LLMs might not recognize that "per" means "for each," leading to calculation errors. We introduce a novel, post-training approach called **Stick to the Facts (SIFT)** to tackle this. SIFT leverages increasing inference-time compute to ground LLM reasoning in contexts. At the core of SIFT lies the *Sticker*, which is generated by the model itself to explicitly emphasize the key information within the context. Given the curated Sticker, SIFT generates two predictions -- one from the original query and one from the query augmented with the Sticker. If they differ, the Sticker is sequentially refined via *forward* optimization (to better align the extracted facts with the query) and *inverse* generation (to conform with the model's inherent tendencies) for more faithful reasoning outcomes. Studies across diverse models (from 3B to 100B+) and benchmarks (e.g., GSM8K, MATH-500) reveal consistent performance improvements. Notably, SIFT improves the pass@1 accuracy of DeepSeek-R1 on AIME2024 from 78.33% to **85.67**%, establishing a new state-of-the-art in the open-source community. The code is available at https://github.com/zhijie-group/SIFT.

Safe deployment of large language models (LLMs) may benefit from a reliable method for assessing their generated content to determine when to abstain or to selectively generate. While likelihood-based metrics such as perplexity are widely employed, recent research has demonstrated the limitations of using sequence-level probability estimates given by LLMs as reliable indicators of generation quality. Conversely, LLMs have demonstrated strong calibration at the token level, particularly when it comes to choosing correct answers in multiple-choice questions or evaluating true/false statements. In this work, we reformulate open-ended generation tasks into token-level prediction tasks, and leverage LLMs' superior calibration at the token level. We instruct an LLM to self-evaluate its answers, employing either a multi-way comparison or a point-wise evaluation approach, with the option to include a ``None of the above'' option to express the model's uncertainty explicitly. We benchmark a range of scoring methods based on self-evaluation and evaluate their performance in selective generation using TruthfulQA and TL;DR. Through experiments with PaLM-2 and GPT-3, we demonstrate that self-evaluation based scores not only improve accuracy, but also correlate better with the overall quality of generated content.

As the probability (and thus perplexity) of a text is calculated based on the product of the probabilities of individual tokens, it may happen that one unlikely token significantly reduces the probability (i.e., increase the perplexity) of some otherwise highly probable input, while potentially representing a simple typographical error. Also, given that perplexity is a scalar value that refers to the entire input, information about the probability distribution within it is lost in the calculation (a relatively good text that has one unlikely token and another text in which each token is equally likely they can have the same perplexity value), especially for longer texts. As an alternative to scalar perplexity this research proposes a simple algorithm used to calculate vector values based on n-gram perplexities within the input. Such representations consider the previously mentioned aspects, and instead of a unique value, the relative perplexity of each text token is calculated, and these values are combined into a single vector representing the input.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

Language models strongly rely on frequency information because they maximize the likelihood of tokens during pre-training. As a consequence, language models tend to not generalize well to tokens that are seldom seen during training. Moreover, maximum likelihood training has been discovered to give rise to anisotropy: representations of tokens in a model tend to cluster tightly in a high-dimensional cone, rather than spreading out over their representational capacity. Our work introduces a method for quantifying the frequency bias of a language model by assessing sentence-level perplexity with respect to token-level frequency. We then present a method for reducing the frequency bias of a language model by inducing a syntactic prior over token representations during pre-training. Our Syntactic Smoothing method adjusts the maximum likelihood objective function to distribute the learning signal to syntactically similar tokens. This approach results in better performance on infrequent English tokens and a decrease in anisotropy. We empirically show that the degree of anisotropy in a model correlates with its frequency bias.

Language models produce a distribution over the next token; can we use this information to recover the prompt tokens? We consider the problem of language model inversion and show that next-token probabilities contain a surprising amount of information about the preceding text. Often we can recover the text in cases where it is hidden from the user, motivating a method for recovering unknown prompts given only the model's current distribution output. We consider a variety of model access scenarios, and show how even without predictions for every token in the vocabulary we can recover the probability vector through search. On Llama-2 7b, our inversion method reconstructs prompts with a BLEU of 59 and token-level F1 of 78 and recovers 27% of prompts exactly. Code for reproducing all experiments is available at http://github.com/jxmorris12/vec2text.

In this paper we introduce token time continuous diffusion (TTCD), a new diffusion language model which (a) operates in continuous space, deterministically mapping Gaussian noise to a final token canvas with no further sampling, and crucially (b) incorporates a new notion of per-token times, with some tokens proceeding from noise to token at a faster rate than others. Continuous space modeling helps TTCD avoid the parallel sampling of multiple tokens, which is a key source of inaccuracy at high speedups for models that iterate purely in discrete space. The notion of per-token times helps TTCD to better model conditional generation, allows for more sure tokens to proceed at a faster rate, and allows for differentiated inter-token influences during refinement. TTCD outperforms discrete models at high speedups. We train a 160M parameter TTCD model on OpenWebText, and then self-distill it; we find that at high speedups we are comparable in unconditional generation quality, and outperform in conditional generation, several existing models of similar size trained, on the same data, and self-distilled. We achieve similar gains in Sudoku solving as well.

Estimating uncertainty in Large Language Models (LLMs) is important for properly evaluating LLMs, and ensuring safety for users. However, prior approaches to uncertainty estimation focus on the final answer in generated text, ignoring intermediate steps that might dramatically impact the outcome. We hypothesize that there exist key forking tokens, such that re-sampling the system at those specific tokens, but not others, leads to very different outcomes. To test this empirically, we develop a novel approach to representing uncertainty dynamics across individual tokens of text generation, and applying statistical models to test our hypothesis. Our approach is highly flexible: it can be applied to any dataset and any LLM, without fine tuning or accessing model weights. We use our method to analyze LLM responses on 7 different tasks across 4 domains, spanning a wide range of typical use cases. We find many examples of forking tokens, including surprising ones such as punctuation marks, suggesting that LLMs are often just a single token away from saying something very different.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Models (LLMs) inference by using a lightweight draft model to propose candidate tokens that are verified in parallel by the target model. However, existing draft model training objectives are not directly aligned with the inference-time goal of maximizing consecutive token acceptance. To address this issue, we reformulate the draft model optimization objective, shifting the focus from token prediction accuracy to the overall acceptance length. In this paper, we build upon PARD to propose PARD-2, a dual-mode speculative decoding framework with Confidence-Adaptive Token (CAT) optimization. This approach adaptively reweights each token to better align with the verification process. Notably, PARD-2 enables a single draft model to support both target-dependent and target-independent modes. Experiments across diverse models and tasks demonstrate that PARD-2 achieves up to 6.94times lossless acceleration, surpassing EAGLE-3 by 1.9times and PARD by 1.3times on Llama3.1-8B. Our code is available at https://github.com/AMD-AGI/PARD.

While speculative decoding has recently appeared as a promising direction for accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs), the speedup and scalability are strongly bounded by the token acceptance rate. Prevalent methods usually organize predicted tokens as independent chains or fixed token trees, which fails to generalize to diverse query distributions. In this paper, we propose DySpec, a faster speculative decoding algorithm with a novel dynamic token tree structure. We begin by bridging the draft distribution and acceptance rate from intuitive and empirical clues, and successfully show that the two variables are strongly correlated. Based on this, we employ a greedy strategy to dynamically expand the token tree at run time. Theoretically, we show that our method can achieve optimal results under mild assumptions. Empirically, DySpec yields a higher acceptance rate and speedup than fixed trees. DySpec can drastically improve the throughput and reduce the latency of token generation across various data distribution and model sizes, which significantly outperforms strong competitors, including Specinfer and Sequoia. Under low temperature setting, DySpec can improve the throughput up to 9.1times and reduce the latency up to 9.4times on Llama2-70B. Under high temperature setting, DySpec can also improve the throughput up to 6.21times, despite the increasing difficulty of speculating more than one token per step for draft model.

Feature attribution methods (FAs), such as gradients and attention, are widely employed approaches to derive the importance of all input features to the model predictions. Existing work in natural language processing has mostly focused on developing and testing FAs for encoder-only language models (LMs) in classification tasks. However, it is unknown if it is faithful to use these FAs for decoder-only models on text generation, due to the inherent differences between model architectures and task settings respectively. Moreover, previous work has demonstrated that there is no `one-wins-all' FA across models and tasks. This makes the selection of a FA computationally expensive for large LMs since input importance derivation often requires multiple forward and backward passes including gradient computations that might be prohibitive even with access to large compute. To address these issues, we present a model-agnostic FA for generative LMs called Recursive Attribution Generator (ReAGent). Our method updates the token importance distribution in a recursive manner. For each update, we compute the difference in the probability distribution over the vocabulary for predicting the next token between using the original input and using a modified version where a part of the input is replaced with RoBERTa predictions. Our intuition is that replacing an important token in the context should have resulted in a larger change in the model's confidence in predicting the token than replacing an unimportant token. Our method can be universally applied to any generative LM without accessing internal model weights or additional training and fine-tuning, as most other FAs require. We extensively compare the faithfulness of ReAGent with seven popular FAs across six decoder-only LMs of various sizes. The results show that our method consistently provides more faithful token importance distributions.

A unique aspect of ColBERT is its use of [MASK] tokens in queries to score documents (query augmentation). Prior work shows [MASK] tokens weighting non-[MASK] query terms, emphasizing certain tokens over others , rather than introducing whole new terms as initially proposed. We begin by demonstrating that a term weighting behavior previously reported for [MASK] tokens in ColBERTv1 holds for ColBERTv2. We then examine the effect of changing the number of [MASK] tokens from zero to up to four times past the query input length used in training, both for first stage retrieval, and for scoring candidates, observing an initial decrease in performance with few [MASK]s, a large increase when enough [MASK]s are added to pad queries to an average length of 32, then a plateau in performance afterwards. Additionally, we compare baseline performance to performance when the query length is extended to 128 tokens, and find that differences are small (e.g., within 1% on various metrics) and generally statistically insignificant, indicating performance does not collapse if ColBERT is presented with more [MASK] tokens than expected.

In large language models (LLMs), each block operates on the residual stream to map input token sequences to output token distributions. However, most of the interpretability literature focuses on internal latent representations, leaving token-space dynamics underexplored. The high dimensionality and categoricity of token distributions hinder their analysis, as standard statistical descriptors are not suitable. We show that the entropy of logit-lens predictions overcomes these issues. In doing so, it provides a per-layer scalar, permutation-invariant metric. We introduce Entropy-Lens to distill the token-space dynamics of the residual stream into a low-dimensional signal. We call this signal the entropy profile. We apply our method to a variety of model sizes and families, showing that (i) entropy profiles uncover token prediction dynamics driven by expansion and pruning strategies; (ii) these dynamics are family-specific and invariant under depth rescaling; (iii) they are characteristic of task type and output format; (iv) these strategies have unequal impact on downstream performance, with the expansion strategy usually being more critical. Ultimately, our findings further enhance our understanding of the residual stream, enabling a granular assessment of how information is processed across model depth.

A critical component of a successful language generation pipeline is the decoding algorithm. However, the general principles that should guide the choice of decoding algorithm remain unclear. Previous works only compare decoding algorithms in narrow scenarios and their findings do not generalize across tasks. To better structure the discussion, we introduce a taxonomy that groups decoding strategies based on their implicit assumptions about how well the model's likelihood is aligned with the task-specific notion of utility. We argue that this taxonomy allows a broader view of the decoding problem and can lead to generalizable statements because it is grounded on the interplay between the decoding algorithms and the likelihood-utility misalignment. Specifically, by analyzing the correlation between the likelihood and the utility of predictions across a diverse set of tasks, we provide the first empirical evidence supporting the proposed taxonomy, and a set of principles to structure reasoning when choosing a decoding algorithm. Crucially, our analysis is the first one to relate likelihood-based decoding strategies with strategies that rely on external information such as value-guided methods and prompting, and covers the most diverse set of tasks up-to-date.

Large language models hallucinate most about entities they have never seen. We ask whether a model's activations betray entity familiarity before a single answer token is generated, and whether that signal predicts the factual reliability of the answers. On four Polish Bielik models (1.5B-11B parameters), we probe four entity domains (athletes, cities, writers, musicians), each with 42 well-known, 42 obscure-but-real, and 42 fabricated entities addressed by a one-sentence question (504 prompts per model). Two unsupervised, single-forward-pass dispersion measures over post-SwiGLU MLP activations, inverse participation ratio and spectral entropy, separate known from fabricated entities at AUROC 0.95-1.00 across all domains and scales; a supervised linear probe reaches 0.99-1.00. Both clear selection-aware permutation floors of about 0.70-0.74 (empirical p<=1e-3), survive held-out layer selection (0.93-0.99), and persist on real names (known vs. obscure-but-real: 0.96-1.00). The signal transfers across entity types (mean off-diagonal AUROC 0.92-0.99); a matched-template counterfactual shows the only large drops are template-caused, not entity-type effects, and the signal is diffuse across heads. This representational signal is already at ceiling at 1.5B, whereas behavioral factual reliability scales sharply: 0, 2, 10, and 19 of 42 known athletes are answered fully correctly by the 1.5B, 4.5B, 7B, and 11B models under a strict judge. Within known entities, separating correct from hallucinated answers is much harder (probe 0.93; dispersion no better than a first-token-entropy baseline). A five-sample semantic-entropy baseline reaches only 0.71-0.83 at 5x the inference cost. Despite this internal awareness, the models almost never abstain: an audit of 2,520 answers finds 2 refusals and 1 hedge. Entity familiarity and factual reliability are distinct phenomena on different scaling curves.

Generative spoken language models pretrained on large-scale raw audio can continue a speech prompt with appropriate content while preserving attributes like speaker and emotion, serving as foundation models for spoken dialogue. In prior literature, these models are often evaluated using ``global token perplexity'', which directly applies the text perplexity formulation to speech tokens. However, this practice overlooks fundamental differences between speech and text modalities, possibly leading to an underestimation of the speech characteristics. In this work, we propose a variety of likelihood- and generative-based evaluation methods that serve in place of naive global token perplexity. We demonstrate that the proposed evaluations more faithfully reflect perceived generation quality, as evidenced by stronger correlations with human-rated mean opinion scores (MOS). When assessed under the new metrics, the relative performance landscape of spoken language models is reshaped, revealing a significantly reduced gap between the best-performing model and the human topline. Together, these results suggest that appropriate evaluation is critical for accurately assessing progress in spoken language modeling.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically personalized via prompt engineering or parameter-efficient fine-tuning such as LoRA. However, writing style can be difficult to distill into a single prompt, and LoRA fine-tuning requires computationally intensive training and infrastructure. We investigate a possible lightweight alternative: steering a frozen LLM with n-gram style priors injected in logit space at decoding time. We train an n-gram model on stylistically distinct corpora -- including Don Quixote, CNN/DailyMail news headlines, and arXiv abstracts -- constructing an interpolated 1-to-3-gram prior over next-token probabilities. During generation we modify the LLM's logits by adding a weighted sum of style log-probabilities from each n-gram order that matches the current context, scaled by a control parameter lambda in [0, 1]. We sweep lambda and style corpora and report style perplexity under the n-gram model, base-model perplexity as a proxy for fluency, Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergence between the original and steered token distributions, and token-overlap statistics. On TinyLlama-1.1B we identify a single narrow regime (for the Don Quixote corpus at lambda=0.1) where style perplexity improves by 24.7% and base-model perplexity improves by 51.4% relative to the frozen model. Outside this regime, and for multi-author corpora such as CNN/DailyMail and arXiv abstracts, even small nonzero lambda values generally result in worse style and fluency, and larger lambda values lead to collapse with extreme perplexities and incoherent text. Logit-space injection of n-gram style priors provides lightweight, tunable style control, but it is fragile: it operates effectively only within a narrow range of low lambda values and is consistently outperformed by prompting and LoRA.

Ensembling Large Language Models (LLMs) has gained attention as a promising approach to surpass the performance of individual models by leveraging their complementary strengths. In particular, aggregating models' next-token probability distributions to select the next token has been shown to be effective in various tasks. However, while successful for short-form answers, its application to long-form generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we show that using existing ensemble methods in long-form generation requires a careful choice of ensembling positions, since the standard practice of ensembling at every token often degrades performance. We identify two key factors for determining these positions: tokenization mismatch across models and consensus in their next-token probability distributions. Based on this, we propose SAFE, (Stable And Fast LLM Ensembling), a framework that selectively ensembles by jointly considering these factors. To further improve stability, we introduce a probability sharpening strategy that consolidates probabilities spread across multiple sub-word tokens representing the same word into a single representative token. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks, including MATH500 and BBH, demonstrate that SAFE outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and efficiency, with gains achieved even when ensembling fewer than 1% of tokens.

Large language models have shown impressive capabilities across a variety of NLP tasks, yet their generating text autoregressively is time-consuming. One way to speed them up is speculative decoding, which generates candidate segments (a sequence of tokens) from a fast draft model that is then verified in parallel by the target model. However, the acceptance rate of candidate tokens receives limitations from several factors, such as the model, the dataset, and the decoding setup. This paper proposes sampling multiple candidates from a draft model and then organising them in batches for verification. We design algorithms for efficient multi-candidate verification while maintaining the distribution of the target model. Our approach shows significant improvements in acceptance rates on multiple datasets and models, consistently outperforming standard speculative decoding.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model (LLM) inference by using a small draft model to propose candidate tokens that a larger target model verifies. A critical hyperparameter in this process is the speculation length γ, which determines how many tokens the draft model proposes per step. Nearly all existing systems use a fixed γ (typically 4), yet empirical evidence suggests that the optimal value varies across task types and, crucially, depends on the compression level applied to the target model. In this paper, we present SpecKV, a lightweight adaptive controller that selects γ per speculation step using signals extracted from the draft model itself. We profile speculative decoding across 4 task categories, 4 speculation lengths, and 3 compression levels (FP16, INT8, NF4), collecting 5,112 step-level records with per-step acceptance rates, draft entropy, and draft confidence. We demonstrate that the optimal γ shifts across compression regimes and that draft model confidence and entropy are strong predictors of acceptance rate (correlation approx 0.56). SpecKV uses a small MLP trained on these signals to maximize expected tokens per speculation step, achieving a 56.0% improvement over the fixed-γ=4 baseline with only 0.34 ms overhead per decision (<0.5% of step time). The improvement is statistically significant (p < 0.001, paired bootstrap test). We release all profiling data, trained models, and notebooks as open-source artifacts.

Recent reasoning Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable problem-solving abilities but often generate long thinking traces whose utility is unclear. Our work aims to improve their efficiency, enabling them to reach high performance without overthinking. First, we analyze the entropy of token probabilities in reasoning traces. Across three models, we observe a consistent U-shaped entropy pattern: high entropy on easy problems despite high accuracy, low entropy on problems with medium difficulty, and high entropy on hard problems reflecting uncertainty. Specifically, we notice 22--25\% entropy reduction from easy to medium difficulty regions, suggesting an {overthinking} phenomenon on easy instances. Building on these insights, we introduce DiffAdapt, a lightweight framework that selects Easy/Normal/Hard inference strategies per question based on their difficulty and reasoning trace entropy. Each inference strategy consists of a fixed prompt, temperature and maximum token length. In contrast to existing efficiency optimization methods, our approach does not fine-tune base LLM but a small probe that classifies LLM's final hidden state, allowing inexpensive adaptation. We comprehensively evaluate our method on five models and eight benchmarks. Our method achieves comparable or improved accuracy while reducing token usage by up to 22.4\%, establishing a practical path toward compute-efficient reasoning.

Large language models such as GPT and Llama are trained with a next-token prediction loss. In this work, we suggest that training language models to predict multiple future tokens at once results in higher sample efficiency. More specifically, at each position in the training corpus, we ask the model to predict the following n tokens using n independent output heads, operating on top of a shared model trunk. Considering multi-token prediction as an auxiliary training task, we measure improved downstream capabilities with no overhead in training time for both code and natural language models. The method is increasingly useful for larger model sizes, and keeps its appeal when training for multiple epochs. Gains are especially pronounced on generative benchmarks like coding, where our models consistently outperform strong baselines by several percentage points. Our 13B parameter models solves 12 % more problems on HumanEval and 17 % more on MBPP than comparable next-token models. Experiments on small algorithmic tasks demonstrate that multi-token prediction is favorable for the development of induction heads and algorithmic reasoning capabilities. As an additional benefit, models trained with 4-token prediction are up to 3 times faster at inference, even with large batch sizes.

Frontier LLMs are increasingly utilised across academia, society and industry. A commonly used unit for comparing models, their inputs and outputs, and estimating inference pricing is the token. In general, tokens are used as a stable currency, assumed to be broadly consistent across tokenizers and contexts, enabling direct comparisons. However, tokenization varies significantly across models and domains of text, making naive interpretation of token counts problematic. We quantify this variation by providing a comprehensive empirical analysis of tokenization, exploring the compression of sequences to tokens across different distributions of textual data. Our analysis challenges commonly held heuristics about token lengths, finding them to be overly simplistic. We hope the insights of our study add clarity and intuition toward tokenization in contemporary LLMs.

In arbitrary-order language models, it is an open question how to sample tokens in parallel from the correct joint distribution. With discrete diffusion models, the more tokens they generate in parallel, the less their predicted distributions adhere to the originally learned data distribution, as they rely on a conditional independence assumption that only works with infinitesimally small timesteps. We find that a different class of models, any-subset autoregressive models (AS-ARMs), holds the solution. As implied by the name, AS-ARMs can generate tokens in any order, and in parallel. Moreover, AS-ARMs support parallelized joint probability density estimation, allowing them to correct their own parallel-generated token distributions, via our Any-Subset Speculative Decoding (ASSD) algorithm. ASSD provably enables generation of tokens from the correct joint distribution, with the number of neural network calls upper bounded by the number of tokens predicted. We empirically verify that ASSD speeds up language generation, without sacrificing quality. Furthermore, we provide a mathematically justified scheme for training AS-ARMs for generation, and show that AS-ARMs achieve state-of-the-art performance among sub-200M parameter models on infilling benchmark tasks, and nearly match the performance of models 50X larger on code generation. Our theoretical and empirical results indicate that the once-forgotten AS-ARMs are a promising direction of language modeling.

One of the most striking findings in modern research on large language models (LLMs) is that scaling up compute during training leads to better results. However, less attention has been given to the benefits of scaling compute during inference. This survey focuses on these inference-time approaches. We explore three areas under a unified mathematical formalism: token-level generation algorithms, meta-generation algorithms, and efficient generation. Token-level generation algorithms, often called decoding algorithms, operate by sampling a single token at a time or constructing a token-level search space and then selecting an output. These methods typically assume access to a language model's logits, next-token distributions, or probability scores. Meta-generation algorithms work on partial or full sequences, incorporating domain knowledge, enabling backtracking, and integrating external information. Efficient generation methods aim to reduce token costs and improve the speed of generation. Our survey unifies perspectives from three research communities: traditional natural language processing, modern LLMs, and machine learning systems.

Language models (LMs) commonly report perplexity on monolithic data held out from training. Implicitly or explicitly, this data is composed of domainsx2013varying distributions of language. Rather than assuming perplexity on one distribution extrapolates to others, Perplexity Analysis for Language Model Assessment (Paloma), measures LM fit to 585 text domains, ranging from nytimes.com to r/depression on Reddit. We invite submissions to our benchmark and organize results by comparability based on compliance with guidelines such as removal of benchmark contamination from pretraining. Submissions can also record parameter and training token count to make comparisons of Pareto efficiency for performance as a function of these measures of cost. We populate our benchmark with results from 6 baselines pretrained on popular corpora. In case studies, we demonstrate analyses that are possible with Paloma, such as finding that pretraining without data beyond Common Crawl leads to inconsistent fit to many domains.

Speculative decoding emerges as a pivotal technique for enhancing the inference speed of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite recent research aiming to improve prediction efficiency, multi-sample speculative decoding has been overlooked due to varying numbers of accepted tokens within a batch in the verification phase. Vanilla method adds padding tokens in order to ensure that the number of new tokens remains consistent across samples. However, this increases the computational and memory access overhead, thereby reducing the speedup ratio. We propose a novel method that can resolve the issue of inconsistent tokens accepted by different samples without necessitating an increase in memory or computing overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method can handle the situation where the prediction tokens of different samples are inconsistent without the need to add padding tokens. Sufficient experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/niyunsheng/EMS-SD.

Token embeddings, a mapping from discrete lexical symbols to continuous vectors, are at the heart of any language model (LM). However, lexical symbol meanings can also be determined and even redefined by their structural role in a long context. In this paper, we ask: is it possible for a language model to be performant without any fixed token embeddings? Such a language model would have to rely entirely on the co-occurence and repetition of tokens in the context rather than the a priori identity of any token. To answer this, we study lexinvariantlanguage models that are invariant to lexical symbols and therefore do not need fixed token embeddings in practice. First, we prove that we can construct a lexinvariant LM to converge to the true language model at a uniform rate that is polynomial in terms of the context length, with a constant factor that is sublinear in the vocabulary size. Second, to build a lexinvariant LM, we simply encode tokens using random Gaussian vectors, such that each token maps to the same representation within each sequence but different representations across sequences. Empirically, we demonstrate that it can indeed attain perplexity comparable to that of a standard language model, given a sufficiently long context. We further explore two properties of the lexinvariant language models: First, given text generated from a substitution cipher of English, it implicitly implements Bayesian in-context deciphering and infers the mapping to the underlying real tokens with high accuracy. Second, it has on average 4X better accuracy over synthetic in-context reasoning tasks. Finally, we discuss regularizing standard language models towards lexinvariance and potential practical applications.

Generative recommender systems have recently attracted attention by formulating next-item prediction as an autoregressive sequence generation task. However, most existing methods optimize standard next-token likelihood and implicitly treat all tokens as equally informative, which is misaligned with semantic-ID-based generation. Accordingly, we propose two complementary information-gain-based token-weighting strategies tailored to generative recommendation with semantic IDs. Front-Greater Weighting captures conditional semantic information gain by prioritizing early tokens that most effectively reduce candidate-item uncertainty given their prefixes and encode coarse semantics. Frequency Weighting models marginal information gain under long-tailed item and token distributions, upweighting rare tokens to counteract popularity bias. Beyond individual strategies, we introduce a multi-target learning framework with curriculum learning that jointly optimizes the two token-weighted objectives alongside standard likelihood, enabling stable optimization and adaptive emphasis across training stages. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets show that our method consistently outperforms strong baselines and existing token-weighting approaches, with improved robustness, strong generalization across different semantic-ID constructions, and substantial gains on both head and tail items. Code is available at https://github.com/CHIUWEINING/Token-Weighted-Multi-Target-Learning-for-Generative-Recommenders-with-Curriculum-Learning.

Reasoning distillation has emerged as an efficient and powerful paradigm for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, reasoning distillation may inadvertently cause benchmark contamination, where evaluation data included in distillation datasets can inflate performance metrics of distilled models. In this work, we formally define the task of distillation data detection, which is uniquely challenging due to the partial availability of distillation data. Then, we propose a novel and effective method Token Probability Deviation (TBD), which leverages the probability patterns of the generated output tokens. Our method is motivated by the analysis that distilled models tend to generate near-deterministic tokens for seen questions, while producing more low-probability tokens for unseen questions. Our key idea behind TBD is to quantify how far the generated tokens' probabilities deviate from a high reference probability. In effect, our method achieves competitive detection performance by producing lower scores for seen questions than for unseen questions. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, achieving an AUC of 0.918 and a TPR@1% FPR of 0.470 on the S1 dataset.

Verification for retrieval-augmented generation usually scores each retrieved chunk and drops the ones that fail. We show this cannot work for multi-hop questions, and show what does. Per-chunk scoring assumes one chunk is a sufficient premise for the answer. Multi-hop questions are built so that none is, and the paragraph carrying the answer is the one the question does not name. Entailment scoring reaches 0.643, 0.523 and 0.560 AUC on HotpotQA, 2WikiMultihopQA and MuSiQue, against 0.951 on single-hop SQuAD. Seven controls rule out model capacity, premise length, hypothesis template, decision threshold, retriever, answer-matching criterion and prompt. End to end across three datasets, three generator sizes and two prompts, per-chunk gating is significantly worse than not filtering at all in every cell, and its penalty grows with generator capability. The repair is to condition verification on the decomposed sub-question rather than the original query. Using MuSiQue's gold decomposition, entailment on a later hop rises from 0.546, which is chance, to 0.840, a paired lift of +0.355 with a bootstrap interval of [0.331, 0.382]. An off-the-shelf Qwen2.5-7B decomposer, given the question and the top retrieved paragraph, reaches 0.637 and captures 31% of that ceiling; decomposing without retrieval reaches 0.533, below the original question. Iterative retrieval systems already produce such decompositions and discard them before verifying.

Masked diffusion models (MDM) exhibit superior generalization when learned using a Partial masking scheme (Prime). This approach converts tokens into sub-tokens and models the diffusion process at the sub-token level. We identify two limitations of the MDM-Prime framework. First, we lack tools to guide the hyperparameter choice of the token granularity in the subtokenizer. Second, we find that the function form of the subtokenizer significantly degrades likelihood estimation when paired with commonly used Byte-Pair-Encoding (BPE) tokenizers. To address these limitations, we study the tightness of the variational bound in MDM-Prime and develop MDM-Prime-v2, a masked diffusion language model which incorporates Binary Encoding and Index Shuffling. Our scaling analysis reveals that MDM-Prime-v2 is 21.8times more compute-efficient than autoregressive models (ARM). In compute-optimal comparisons, MDM-Prime-v2 achieves 7.77 perplexity on OpenWebText, outperforming ARM (12.99), MDM (18.94), and MDM-Prime (13.41). When extending the model size to 1.1B parameters, our model further demonstrates superior zero-shot accuracy on various commonsense reasoning tasks.

Speculative decoding accelerates large language model inference by drafting multiple candidate tokens and verifying them in a single forward pass. Candidates are organized as a tree: deeper trees accept more tokens per step, but adding depth requires sacrificing breadth (fallback options) under a fixed verification budget. Existing training-free methods draft from a single token source and shape their trees without distinguishing candidate quality across origins. We observe that two common training-free token sources - n-gram matches copied from the input context, and statistical predictions from prior forward passes - differ dramatically in acceptance rate (~6x median gap, range 2-18x across five models and five benchmarks). We prove that when such a quality gap exists, the optimal tree is anisotropic (asymmetric): reliable tokens should form a deep chain while unreliable tokens spread as wide branches, breaking through the depth limit of balanced trees. We realize this structure in GOOSE, a training-free framework that builds an adaptive spine tree - a deep chain of high-acceptance context-matched tokens with wide branches of low-acceptance alternatives at each node. We prove that the number of tokens accepted per step is at least as large as that of either source used alone. On five LLMs (7B-33B) and five benchmarks, GOOSE achieves 1.9-4.3x lossless speedup, outperforming balanced-tree baselines by 12-33% under the same budget.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a strong alternative to autoregressive language models (LMs). DLMs offer comparable accuracy with faster inference speed via parallel decoding. However, standard DLM decoding strategies relying on high-confidence tokens encounter an inherent information-theoretic bottleneck that restricts decoding progress and ultimately slows generation. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that prioritizing high-confidence tokens is inherently inefficient. High-probability tokens carry negligible information and strictly relying on them limits the effective progress made in each decoding round. We prove that the number of decoding rounds must grow linearly with the sample's total information (negative log-likelihood) and inversely with the per-round information budget, establishing a bits-to-rounds principle. We also propose Explore-Then-Exploit (ETE), a training-free decoding strategy that maximizes information throughput and decoding efficiency. ETE combines cross-block decoding with targeted exploration of high-uncertainty tokens to reshape the conditional distribution and trigger cascades of confident predictions. Experiments verify our theoretical bounds and demonstrate that ETE consistently reduces the required number of decoding rounds compared to confidence-only baselines without compromising generation quality.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous decision agents in settings with asymmetric error costs: hiring (missed talent vs wasted interviews), medical triage (missed emergencies vs unnecessary escalation), and fraud detection (approved fraud vs declined legitimate payments). The dominant design queries a single LLM for a posterior over states, thresholds "confidence," and acts; we prove this is inadequate for sequential decisions with costs. We propose a Bayesian, cost-aware multi-LLM orchestration framework that treats LLMs as approximate likelihood models rather than classifiers. For each candidate state, we elicit likelihoods via contrastive prompting, aggregate across diverse models with robust statistics, and update beliefs with Bayes rule under explicit priors as new evidence arrives. This enables coherent belief updating, expected-cost action selection, principled information gathering via value of information, and fairness gains via ensemble bias mitigation. In resume screening with costs of 40000 USD per missed hire, 2500 USD per interview, and 150 USD per phone screen, experiments on 1000 resumes using five LLMs (GPT-4o, Claude 4.5 Sonnet, Gemini Pro, Grok, DeepSeek) reduce total cost by 294000 USD (34 percent) versus the best single-LLM baseline and improve demographic parity by 45 percent (max group gap 22 to 5 percentage points). Ablations attribute 51 percent of savings to multi-LLM aggregation, 43 percent to sequential updating, and 20 percent to disagreement-triggered information gathering, consistent with the theoretical benefits of correct probabilistic foundations.

The rapid growth in the parameters of large language models (LLMs) has made inference latency a fundamental bottleneck, limiting broader application of LLMs. Speculative decoding represents a lossless approach to accelerate inference through a guess-and-verify paradigm, leveraging the parallel capabilities of modern hardware. Some speculative decoding methods rely on additional structures to guess draft tokens, such as small models or parameter-efficient architectures, which need extra training before use. Alternatively, retrieval-based train-free techniques build libraries from pre-existing corpora or by n-gram generation. However, they face challenges like large storage requirements, time-consuming retrieval, and limited adaptability. Observing that candidate tokens generated during the decoding process are likely to reoccur in future sequences, we propose Token Recycling. This approach stores candidate tokens in an adjacency matrix and employs a breadth-first search (BFS)-like algorithm on the matrix to construct a draft tree. The tree is then validated through tree attention. New candidate tokens from the decoding process are then used to update the matrix. Token Recycling requires \textless2MB of additional storage and achieves approximately 2x speedup across all sizes of LLMs. It significantly outperforms existing train-free methods by 30\% and even a training method by 25\%. It can be directly applied to any existing LLMs and tasks without the need for adaptation.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is a fundamental post-training strategy to align Large Language Models (LLMs) with human intent. However, traditional SFT often ignores the one-to-many nature of language by forcing alignment with a single reference answer, leading to the model overfitting to non-core expressions. Although our empirical analysis suggests that introducing multiple reference answers can mitigate this issue, the prohibitive data and computational costs necessitate a strategic shift: prioritizing the mitigation of single-reference overfitting over the costly pursuit of answer diversity. To achieve this, we reveal the intrinsic connection between token probability and semantic importance: high-probability tokens carry the core logical framework, while low-probability tokens are mostly replaceable expressions. Based on this insight, we propose ProFit, which selectively masks low-probability tokens to prevent surface-level overfitting. Extensive experiments confirm that ProFit consistently outperforms traditional SFT baselines on general reasoning and mathematical benchmarks.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate great performance in text generation. However, LLMs are still suffering from hallucinations. In this work, we propose an inference-time method, Self-Highlighted Hesitation (SH2), to help LLMs decode more truthfully. SH2 is based on a simple fact rooted in information theory that for an LLM, the tokens predicted with lower probabilities are prone to be more informative than others. Our analysis shows that the tokens assigned with lower probabilities by an LLM are more likely to be closely related to factual information, such as nouns, proper nouns, and adjectives. Therefore, we propose to ''highlight'' the factual information by selecting the tokens with the lowest probabilities and concatenating them to the original context, thus forcing the model to repeatedly read and hesitate on these tokens before generation. During decoding, we also adopt contrastive decoding to emphasize the difference in the output probabilities brought by the hesitation. Experimental results demonstrate that our SH2, requiring no additional data or models, can effectively help LLMs elicit factual knowledge and distinguish hallucinated contexts. Significant and consistent improvements are achieved by SH2 for LLaMA-7b and LLaMA2-7b on multiple hallucination tasks.

We explore the Iterative Inference Hypothesis (IIH) within the context of transformer-based language models, aiming to understand how a model's latent representations are progressively refined and whether observable differences are present between correct and incorrect generations. Our findings provide empirical support for the IIH, showing that the nth token embedding in the residual stream follows a trajectory of decreasing loss. Additionally, we observe that the rate at which residual embeddings converge to a stable output representation reflects uncertainty in the token generation process. Finally, we introduce a method utilizing cross-entropy to detect this uncertainty and demonstrate its potential to distinguish between correct and incorrect token generations on a dataset of idioms.

Latent tokens are gaining attention for enhancing reasoning in large language models (LLMs), yet their internal mechanisms remain unclear. This paper examines the problem from a reliability perspective, uncovering fundamental weaknesses: latent tokens function as uninterpretable placeholders rather than encoding faithful reasoning. While resistant to perturbation, they promote shortcut usage over genuine reasoning. We focus on Chain-of-Continuous-Thought (COCONUT), which claims better efficiency and stability than explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) while maintaining performance. We investigate this through two complementary approaches. First, steering experiments perturb specific token subsets, namely COCONUT and explicit CoT. Unlike CoT tokens, COCONUT tokens show minimal sensitivity to steering and lack reasoning-critical information. Second, shortcut experiments evaluate models under biased and out-of-distribution settings. Results on MMLU and HotpotQA demonstrate that COCONUT consistently exploits dataset artifacts, inflating benchmark performance without true reasoning. These findings reposition COCONUT as a pseudo-reasoning mechanism: it generates plausible traces that conceal shortcut dependence rather than faithfully representing reasoning processes.

To fully understand the behavior of a large language model (LLM) requires our understanding of its input space. If this input space differs from our assumption, our understanding of and conclusions about the LLM is likely flawed, regardless of its architecture. Here, we elucidate the structure of the token embeddings, the input domain for LLMs, both empirically and theoretically. We present a generalized and statistically testable model where the neighborhood of each token splits into well-defined signal and noise dimensions. This model is based on a generalization of a manifold called a fiber bundle, so we denote our hypothesis test as the ``fiber bundle null.'' Failing to reject the null is uninformative, but rejecting it at a specific token indicates that token has a statistically significant local structure, and so is of interest to us. By running our test over several open-source LLMs, each with unique token embeddings, we find that the null is frequently rejected, and so the token subspace is provably not a fiber bundle and hence also not a manifold. As a consequence of our findings, when an LLM is presented with two semantically equivalent prompts, and if one prompt contains a token implicated by our test, that prompt will likely exhibit more output variability proportional to the local signal dimension of the token.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically motivated units (e.g., words), while pretrained language models assign probability mass to a fixed token alphabet that typically does not align with those units. As a result, surprisal-based predictors depend implicitly on ad hoc procedures that conflate two distinct modeling choices: the definition of the unit of analysis and the choice of regions of interest over which predictions are evaluated. In this paper, we disentangle these choices and give a unified framework for reasoning about surprisal over arbitrary unit inventories. We argue that surprisal-based analyses should make these choices explicit and treat tokenization as an implementation detail rather than a scientific primitive.

Multiple choice questions (MCQs) are commonly used to evaluate the capabilities of large language models (LLMs). One common way to evaluate the model response is to rank the candidate answers based on the log probability of the first token prediction. An alternative way is to examine the text output. Prior work has shown that first token probabilities lack robustness to changes in MCQ phrasing, and that first token probabilities do not match text answers for instruction-tuned models. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate the robustness of text answers. We show that the text answers are more robust to question perturbations than the first token probabilities, when the first token answers mismatch the text answers. The difference in robustness increases as the mismatch rate becomes greater. As the mismatch reaches over 50\%, the text answer is more robust to option order changes than the debiased first token probabilities using state-of-the-art debiasing methods such as PriDe. Our findings provide further evidence for the benefits of text answer evaluation over first token probability evaluation.

Unsupervised constituency parsers organize phrases within a sentence into a tree-shaped syntactic constituent structure that reflects the organization of sentence semantics. However, the traditional objective of maximizing sentence log-likelihood (LL) does not explicitly account for the close relationship between the constituent structure and the semantics, resulting in a weak correlation between LL values and parsing accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a novel objective for training unsupervised parsers: maximizing the information between constituent structures and sentence semantics (SemInfo). We introduce a bag-of-substrings model to represent the semantics and apply the probability-weighted information metric to estimate the SemInfo. Additionally, we develop a Tree Conditional Random Field (TreeCRF)-based model to apply the SemInfo maximization objective to Probabilistic Context-Free Grammar (PCFG) induction, the state-of-the-art method for unsupervised constituency parsing. Experiments demonstrate that SemInfo correlates more strongly with parsing accuracy than LL. Our algorithm significantly enhances parsing accuracy by an average of 7.85 points across five PCFG variants and in four languages, achieving new state-of-the-art results in three of the four languages.

To address this gap, our study introduces the concept of causal epistemic consistency, which focuses on the self-consistency of Large Language Models (LLMs) in differentiating intermediates with nuanced differences in causal reasoning. We propose a suite of novel metrics -- intensity ranking concordance, cross-group position agreement, and intra-group clustering -- to evaluate LLMs on this front. Through extensive empirical studies on 21 high-profile LLMs, including GPT-4, Claude3, and LLaMA3-70B, we have favoring evidence that current models struggle to maintain epistemic consistency in identifying the polarity and intensity of intermediates in causal reasoning. Additionally, we explore the potential of using internal token probabilities as an auxiliary tool to maintain causal epistemic consistency. In summary, our study bridges a critical gap in AI research by investigating the self-consistency over fine-grained intermediates involved in causal reasoning.

Subword tokenization has become the de-facto standard for tokenization, although comparative evaluations of subword vocabulary quality across languages are scarce. Existing evaluation studies focus on the effect of a tokenization algorithm on the performance in downstream tasks, or on engineering criteria such as the compression rate. We present a new evaluation paradigm that focuses on the cognitive plausibility of subword tokenization. We analyze the correlation of the tokenizer output with the response time and accuracy of human performance on a lexical decision task. We compare three tokenization algorithms across several languages and vocabulary sizes. Our results indicate that the UnigramLM algorithm yields less cognitively plausible tokenization behavior and a worse coverage of derivational morphemes, in contrast with prior work.

Large language models (LLMs) suffer from high inference latency due to the auto-regressive decoding process. Speculative decoding accelerates inference by generating multiple draft tokens using a lightweight model and verifying them in parallel. However, existing verification methods rely heavily on distributional consistency while overlooking semantic correctness, thereby limiting the potential speedup of speculative decoding. While some methods employ additional models for relaxed verification of draft tokens, they often fail to generalize effectively to more diverse or open-domain settings. In this work, we propose Reflective Verification, a training-free and semantics-aware approach that achieves a better trade-off between correctness and efficiency. Specifically, we leverage the inherent reflective capacity of LLMs to semantically assess the correctness of draft tokens in parallel during verification. Using prompt-based probing, we obtain both the original and reflective distributions of draft tokens in a single forward pass. The fusion of these distributions enables semantic-level verification of draft tokens that incorporates both consistency and correctness. Experiments across multiple domain benchmarks and model scales demonstrate that our method significantly increases the acceptance length of draft tokens without compromising model performance. Furthermore, we find that the proposed Reflective Verification is orthogonal to existing statistical verification methods, and their combination yields additional 5sim15\% improvements in decoding speed.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

Large language models (LLMs) often hallucinate and lack the ability to provide attribution for their generations. Semi-parametric LMs, such as kNN-LM, approach these limitations by refining the output of an LM for a given prompt using its nearest neighbor matches in a non-parametric data store. However, these models often exhibit slow inference speeds and produce non-fluent texts. In this paper, we introduce Nearest Neighbor Speculative Decoding (NEST), a novel semi-parametric language modeling approach that is capable of incorporating real-world text spans of arbitrary length into the LM generations and providing attribution to their sources. NEST performs token-level retrieval at each inference step to compute a semi-parametric mixture distribution and identify promising span continuations in a corpus. It then uses an approximate speculative decoding procedure that accepts a prefix of the retrieved span or generates a new token. NEST significantly enhances the generation quality and attribution rate of the base LM across a variety of knowledge-intensive tasks, surpassing the conventional kNN-LM method and performing competitively with in-context retrieval augmentation. In addition, NEST substantially improves the generation speed, achieving a 1.8x speedup in inference time when applied to Llama-2-Chat 70B.

The dominant approach to generating from language models subject to some constraint is locally constrained decoding (LCD), incrementally sampling tokens at each time step such that the constraint is never violated. Typically, this is achieved through token masking: looping over the vocabulary and excluding non-conforming tokens. There are two important problems with this approach. (i) Evaluating the constraint on every token can be prohibitively expensive -- LM vocabularies often exceed 100,000 tokens. (ii) LCD can distort the global distribution over strings, sampling tokens based only on local information, even if they lead down dead-end paths. This work introduces a new algorithm that addresses both these problems. First, to avoid evaluating a constraint on the full vocabulary at each step of generation, we propose an adaptive rejection sampling algorithm that typically requires orders of magnitude fewer constraint evaluations. Second, we show how this algorithm can be extended to produce low-variance, unbiased estimates of importance weights at a very small additional cost -- estimates that can be soundly used within previously proposed sequential Monte Carlo algorithms to correct for the myopic behavior of local constraint enforcement. Through extensive empirical evaluation in text-to-SQL, molecular synthesis, goal inference, pattern matching, and JSON domains, we show that our approach is superior to state-of-the-art baselines, supporting a broader class of constraints and improving both runtime and performance. Additional theoretical and empirical analyses show that our method's runtime efficiency is driven by its dynamic use of computation, scaling with the divergence between the unconstrained and constrained LM, and as a consequence, runtime improvements are greater for better models.

Inference with modern Large Language Models (LLMs) is expensive and time-consuming, and speculative sampling has proven to be an effective solution. Most speculative sampling methods such as EAGLE use a static draft tree, implicitly assuming that the acceptance rate of draft tokens depends only on their position. Interestingly, we found that the acceptance rate of draft tokens is also context-dependent. In this paper, building upon EAGLE, we propose EAGLE-2, which introduces a new technique of context-aware dynamic draft tree into drafting modeling. This improvement leverages the fact that the draft model of EAGLE is well-calibrated: the confidence scores from the draft model approximate acceptance rates with small errors. We conducted extensive evaluations on three series of LLMs and six tasks, with EAGLE-2 achieving speedup ratios 3.05x-4.26x, which is 20%-40% faster than EAGLE-1. EAGLE-2 also ensures that the distribution of the generated text remains unchanged, making it a lossless acceleration algorithm.

Many commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) are often closed-source, limiting developers to prompt tuning for aligning content generation with specific applications. While these models currently do not provide access to token logits, we argue that if such access were available, it would enable more powerful adaptation techniques beyond prompt engineering. In this paper, we propose a token-level probability reweighting framework that, given access to logits and a small amount of task-specific data, can effectively steer black-box LLMs toward application-specific content generation. Our approach views next-token prediction through the lens of supervised classification. We show that aligning black-box LLMs with task-specific data can be formulated as a label noise correction problem, leading to Plugin model -- an autoregressive probability reweighting model that operates solely on logits. We provide theoretical justification for why reweighting logits alone is sufficient for task adaptation. Extensive experiments with multiple datasets, LLMs, and reweighting models demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, advocating for broader access to token logits in closed-source models.

The autoregressive nature of large language models (LLMs) limits inference speed. Each forward pass generates only a single token and is often bottlenecked by memory bandwidth. Speculative decoding alleviates this issue using a draft-then-verify approach to accelerate token generation. However, the overhead introduced during the draft phase and the training cost of the draft model limit the efficiency and adaptability of speculative decoding. In this work, we introduce PARallel Draft (PARD), a novel speculative decoding method that enables low-cost adaptation of autoregressive draft models into parallel draft models. PARD enhances inference efficiency by predicting multiple future tokens in a single forward pass of the draft phase, and incorporates a conditional drop token method to accelerate training. Its target-independence property allows a single draft model to be applied to an entire family of different models, minimizing the adaptation cost. Our proposed conditional drop token method can improves draft model training efficiency by 3x. On our optimized inference framework, PARD accelerates LLaMA3.1-8B inference by 4.08x, achieving 311.5 tokens per second.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

We present significant extensions to diffusion-based sequence generation models, blurring the line with autoregressive language models. We introduce hyperschedules, which assign distinct noise schedules to individual token positions, generalizing both autoregressive models (e.g., GPT) and conventional diffusion models (e.g., SEDD, MDLM) as special cases. Second, we propose two hybrid token-wise noising processes that interpolate between absorbing and uniform processes, enabling the model to fix past mistakes, and we introduce a novel inference algorithm that leverages this new feature in a simplified context inspired from MDLM. To support efficient training and inference, we design attention masks compatible with KV-caching. Our methods achieve state-of-the-art perplexity and generate diverse, high-quality sequences across standard benchmarks, suggesting a promising path for autoregressive diffusion-based sequence generation.

Reasoning has become a central paradigm for large language models (LLMs), consistently boosting accuracy across diverse benchmarks. Yet its suitability for precision-sensitive tasks remains unclear. We present the first systematic study of reasoning for classification tasks under strict low false positive rate (FPR) regimes. Our analysis covers two tasks--safety detection and hallucination detection--evaluated in both fine-tuned and zero-shot settings, using standard LLMs and Large Reasoning Models (LRMs). Our results reveal a clear trade-off: Think On (reasoning-augmented) generation improves overall accuracy, but underperforms at the low-FPR thresholds essential for practical use. In contrast, Think Off (no reasoning during inference) dominates in these precision-sensitive regimes, with Think On surpassing only when higher FPRs are acceptable. In addition, we find token-based scoring substantially outperforms self-verbalized confidence for precision-sensitive deployments. Finally, a simple ensemble of the two modes recovers the strengths of each. Taken together, our findings position reasoning as a double-edged tool: beneficial for average accuracy, but often ill-suited for applications requiring strict precision.

A wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word's negative log probability in context. However, it is still unclear how to best estimate these probabilities needed for predicting human processing difficulty -- while a long-standing belief held that models with lower perplexity would provide more accurate estimates of word predictability, and therefore lead to better reading time predictions, recent work has shown that for very large models, psycholinguistic predictive power decreases. One reason could be that language models might be more confident of their predictions than humans, because they have had exposure to several magnitudes more data. In this paper, we test what effect temperature-scaling of large language model (LLM) predictions has on surprisal estimates and their predictive power of reading times of English texts. Firstly, we show that calibration of large language models typically improves with model size, i.e. poorer calibration cannot account for poorer fit to reading times. Secondly, we find that temperature-scaling probabilities lead to a systematically better fit to reading times (up to 89% improvement in delta log likelihood), across several reading time corpora. Finally, we show that this improvement in fit is chiefly driven by words that are composed of multiple subword tokens.

Estimating the difficulty of input questions as perceived by large language models (LLMs) is essential for accurate performance evaluation and adaptive inference. Existing methods typically rely on repeated response sampling, auxiliary models, or fine-tuning the target model itself, which may incur substantial computational costs or compromise generality. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for difficulty estimation that leverages only the hidden representations produced by the target LLM. We model the token-level generation process as a Markov chain and define a value function to estimate the expected output quality given any hidden state. This allows for efficient and accurate difficulty estimation based solely on the initial hidden state, without generating any output tokens. Extensive experiments across both textual and multimodal tasks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing baselines in difficulty estimation. Moreover, we apply our difficulty estimates to guide adaptive reasoning strategies, including Self-Consistency, Best-of-N, and Self-Refine, achieving higher inference efficiency with fewer generated tokens.

Large language models (LLMs) owe much of their stellar performance to expansive input contexts, yet such verbosity inflates monetary costs, carbon footprint, and inference-time latency. Much of this overhead manifests from the redundant low-utility tokens present in typical prompts, as only a fraction of tokens typically carries the majority of the semantic weight. We address this inefficiency by introducing FrugalPrompt, a novel prompt compression framework for LLMs, which retains only the most semantically significant tokens. Leveraging two state-of-the-art token attribution methods, GlobEnc and DecompX, we assign salience scores to every token in an input sequence, rank them to preserve the top-k% tokens in their original order, and obtain a sparse frugalized prompt. We evaluate the approach across four NLP tasks: Sentiment Analysis, Commonsense QA, Summarization, and Mathematical Reasoning, using a suite of frontier LLMs. For the first three tasks, a 20% prompt reduction incurs only a marginal loss in task performance, demonstrating that contemporary LLMs can reconstruct elided context from high-salience cues. In contrast, performance on mathematical reasoning deteriorates sharply, reflecting a stronger dependence on complete token continuity. Further analysis with bottom-k% and random-k% tokens reveals asymmetric performance patterns that may suggest potential task contamination effects, wherein models may resort to shallow memorized patterns from pretraining exposure for conventional NLP tasks. We posit that our work contributes to a more nuanced understanding of LLM behavior in performance-efficiency trade-offs, and delineate the boundary between tasks tolerant to contextual sparsity and those requiring exhaustive context. Our source code and models are available at: https://github.com/Starscream-11813/Frugal-ICL.

As language models grow in popularity, it becomes increasingly important to clearly measure all possible markers of demographic identity in order to avoid perpetuating existing societal harms. Many datasets for measuring bias currently exist, but they are restricted in their coverage of demographic axes and are commonly used with preset bias tests that presuppose which types of biases models can exhibit. In this work, we present a new, more inclusive bias measurement dataset, HolisticBias, which includes nearly 600 descriptor terms across 13 different demographic axes. HolisticBias was assembled in a participatory process including experts and community members with lived experience of these terms. These descriptors combine with a set of bias measurement templates to produce over 450,000 unique sentence prompts, which we use to explore, identify, and reduce novel forms of bias in several generative models. We demonstrate that HolisticBias is effective at measuring previously undetectable biases in token likelihoods from language models, as well as in an offensiveness classifier. We will invite additions and amendments to the dataset, which we hope will serve as a basis for more easy-to-use and standardized methods for evaluating bias in NLP models.

Autoregressive sampling from large language models has led to state-of-the-art results in several natural language tasks. However, autoregressive sampling generates tokens one at a time making it slow, and even prohibitive in certain tasks. One way to speed up sampling is speculative decoding: use a small model to sample a draft (block or sequence of tokens), and then score all tokens in the draft by the large language model in parallel. A subset of the tokens in the draft are accepted (and the rest rejected) based on a statistical method to guarantee that the final output follows the distribution of the large model. In this work, we provide a principled understanding of speculative decoding through the lens of optimal transport (OT) with membership cost. This framework can be viewed as an extension of the well-known maximal-coupling problem. This new formulation enables us to generalize the speculative decoding method to allow for a set of k candidates at the token-level, which leads to an improved optimal membership cost. We show that the optimal draft selection algorithm (transport plan) can be computed via linear programming, whose best-known runtime is exponential in k. We then propose a valid draft selection algorithm whose acceptance probability is (1-1/e)-optimal multiplicatively. Moreover, it can be computed in time almost linear with size of domain of a single token. Using this new draft selection algorithm, we develop a new autoregressive sampling algorithm called SpecTr, which provides speedup in decoding while ensuring that there is no quality degradation in the decoded output. We experimentally demonstrate that for state-of-the-art large language models, the proposed approach achieves a wall clock speedup of 2.13X, a further 1.37X speedup over speculative decoding on standard benchmarks.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

While subword tokenizers such as BPE and WordPiece are typically used to build vocabularies for NLP models, the method of decoding text into a sequence of tokens from these vocabularies is often left unspecified, or ill-suited to the method in which they were constructed. We provide a controlled analysis of seven tokenizer inference methods across four different algorithms and three vocabulary sizes, performed on a novel intrinsic evaluation suite we curated for English, combining measures rooted in morphology, cognition, and information theory. We show that for the most commonly used tokenizers, greedy inference performs surprisingly well; and that SaGe, a recently-introduced contextually-informed tokenizer, outperforms all others on morphological alignment.

Large language models (LLMs) reach high accuracy in mathematical reasoning, but individual traces on the same problem diverge; some arrive at the correct answer while others fail. Prior work analyzes failure at the step, chunk, or sentence level, or at tokens where failure has already occurred. Neither identifies the precise token that triggers the shift toward failure. We introduce the cliff token, a token where the token-wise potential drops significantly under an adaptive threshold that scales with the local token-wise potential, based on a one-sided two-proportion z-test. Across seven models and three mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM1K, MATH500, AIME 2025), cliff tokens act as failure triggers; deleting the first cliff token and resampling recovers pass@64 to 1.0, while keeping it limits recovery to between 0.71 and 1.00. We further introduce a cliff taxonomy of deterministic, uncertain, and sampled-off cliffs, defined by greedy choice and token entropy. Each type has distinct probabilistic characteristics, and the taxonomy generalizes across model scales. Finally, we validate the taxonomy via single-token preference optimization at cliff positions (Cliff-DPO). Trained on GSM8K, Cliff-DPO improves accuracy across benchmarks by up to +6.6. Optimizing at uncertain and sampled-off cliffs improves reasoning, while deterministic cliffs do not.

Large-scale datasets for natural language inference are created by presenting crowd workers with a sentence (premise), and asking them to generate three new sentences (hypotheses) that it entails, contradicts, or is logically neutral with respect to. We show that, in a significant portion of such data, this protocol leaves clues that make it possible to identify the label by looking only at the hypothesis, without observing the premise. Specifically, we show that a simple text categorization model can correctly classify the hypothesis alone in about 67% of SNLI (Bowman et. al, 2015) and 53% of MultiNLI (Williams et. al, 2017). Our analysis reveals that specific linguistic phenomena such as negation and vagueness are highly correlated with certain inference classes. Our findings suggest that the success of natural language inference models to date has been overestimated, and that the task remains a hard open problem.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Reasoning capability has advanced rapidly in large language models (LLMs), leading to an increasing size of key-value (KV) cache in both prefilling and decoding stages. Existing KV cache compression methods mainly rely on attention weights to estimate token importance. While attention effectively captures contextual relevance, it overlooks complementary information-theoretic signals related to predictive uncertainty and token informativeness. In this paper, we revisit token importance from a forward-looking perspective and introduce Forward Influence, a metric that measures how compressed tokens affect future contexts. Our analysis reveals that tokens selected by attention scores mainly influence nearby contexts, whereas tokens associated with high predictive uncertainty exhibit substantially stronger influence on distant future contexts. Based on the observation, we propose InfoKV, an entropy-aware KV cache compression framework that incorporates information-theoretic signals. It combines token-level predictive uncertainty with layer-wise representation evolution and integrates the resulting entropy scores with attention scores during reasoning. Experiments on long-context reasoning benchmarks with Llama-3.1, Llama-3.2, and DeepSeek-R1 demonstrate that InfoKV consistently outperforms existing attention-based KV compression methods in both long prefilling and decoding scenarios.

The disconnect between tokenizer creation and model training in language models has been known to allow for certain inputs, such as the infamous SolidGoldMagikarp token, to induce unwanted behaviour. Although such `glitch tokens' that are present in the tokenizer vocabulary, but are nearly or fully absent in training, have been observed across a variety of different models, a consistent way of identifying them has been missing. We present a comprehensive analysis of Large Language Model (LLM) tokenizers, specifically targeting this issue of detecting untrained and under-trained tokens. Through a combination of tokenizer analysis, model weight-based indicators, and prompting techniques, we develop effective methods for automatically detecting these problematic tokens. Our findings demonstrate the prevalence of such tokens across various models and provide insights into improving the efficiency and safety of language models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive generative capabilities across diverse tasks but remain susceptible to hallucinations, confidently generated yet factually incorrect outputs. We introduce a reference-free, token-level hallucination detection framework that leverages the variance in token log-probabilities across multiple stochastic generations. Unlike prior methods that require ground-truth references or sentence-level verification, our approach is model-agnostic, interpretable, and suited for real-time or post-hoc analysis. We evaluate our method on unanswerable question prompts from the SQuAD v2 dataset and benchmark across three autoregressive models of varying scales: GPT-Neo 125M, Falcon 1B, and Mistral 7B. Through both quantitative metrics and visual diagnostics, we show that token-level variance reliably highlights instability in model outputs and correlates with hallucination patterns. Our framework is lightweight, reproducible, and adaptable to multiple domains, offering a valuable diagnostic tool for analyzing generative reliability in LLMs.

The open-ended nature of language generation makes the evaluation of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) challenging. One common evaluation approach uses multiple-choice questions (MCQ) to limit the response space. The model is then evaluated by ranking the candidate answers by the log probability of the first token prediction. However, first-tokens may not consistently reflect the final response output, due to model's diverse response styles such as starting with "Sure" or refusing to answer. Consequently, MCQ evaluation is not indicative of model behaviour when interacting with users. But by how much? We evaluate how aligned first-token evaluation is with the text output along several dimensions, namely final option choice, refusal rate, choice distribution and robustness under prompt perturbation. Our results show that the two approaches are severely misaligned on all dimensions, reaching mismatch rates over 60%. Models heavily fine-tuned on conversational or safety data are especially impacted. Crucially, models remain misaligned even when we increasingly constrain prompts, i.e., force them to start with an option letter or example template. Our findings i) underscore the importance of inspecting the text output as well and ii) caution against relying solely on first-token evaluation.

Tokenization is associated with many poorly understood shortcomings in language models (LMs), yet remains an important component for long sequence scaling purposes. This work studies how tokenization impacts model performance by analyzing and comparing the stochastic behavior of tokenized models with their byte-level, or token-free, counterparts. We discover that, even when the two models are statistically equivalent, their predictive distributions over the next byte can be substantially different, a phenomenon we term as "tokenization bias''. To fully characterize this phenomenon, we introduce the Byte-Token Representation Lemma, a framework that establishes a mapping between the learned token distribution and its equivalent byte-level distribution. From this result, we develop a next-byte sampling algorithm that eliminates tokenization bias without requiring further training or optimization. In other words, this enables zero-shot conversion of tokenized LMs into statistically equivalent token-free ones. We demonstrate its broad applicability with two use cases: fill-in-the-middle (FIM) tasks and model ensembles. In FIM tasks where input prompts may terminate mid-token, leading to out-of-distribution tokenization, our method mitigates performance degradation and achieves an approximately 18% improvement in FIM coding benchmarks, consistently outperforming the standard token healing fix. For model ensembles where each model employs a distinct vocabulary, our approach enables seamless integration, resulting in improved performance (up to 3.7%) over individual models across various standard baselines in reasoning, knowledge, and coding.

We study the fractal structure of language, aiming to provide a precise formalism for quantifying properties that may have been previously suspected but not formally shown. We establish that language is: (1) self-similar, exhibiting complexities at all levels of granularity, with no particular characteristic context length, and (2) long-range dependent (LRD), with a Hurst parameter of approximately H=0.70. Based on these findings, we argue that short-term patterns/dependencies in language, such as in paragraphs, mirror the patterns/dependencies over larger scopes, like entire documents. This may shed some light on how next-token prediction can lead to a comprehension of the structure of text at multiple levels of granularity, from words and clauses to broader contexts and intents. We also demonstrate that fractal parameters improve upon perplexity-based bits-per-byte (BPB) in predicting downstream performance. We hope these findings offer a fresh perspective on language and the mechanisms underlying the success of LLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often expend significant computational resources generating boilerplate responses, such as refusals, simple acknowledgements and casual greetings, which adds unnecessary cost and latency. To address this inefficiency, we propose a simple yet highly effective method for detecting such responses after only a single generation step. We demonstrate that the log-probability distribution of the first generated token serves as a powerful signal for classifying the nature of the entire subsequent response. Our experiments, conducted across a diverse range of small, large, and reasoning-specialized models, show that the first-token log-probability vectors form distinctly separable clusters for different response types. Using a lightweight k-NN classifier, we achieve high accuracy in predicting whether a response will be a substantive answer or a form of boilerplate response, including user-specified refusals. The primary implication is a practical, computationally trivial technique, optimizing LLM inference by enabling early termination or redirection to a smaller model, thereby yielding significant savings in computational cost. This work presents a direct path toward more efficient and sustainable LLM deployment.

On-policy distillation offers dense, per-token supervision for training reasoning models; however, it remains unclear under which conditions this signal is beneficial and under which it is detrimental. Which teacher model should be used, and in the case of self-distillation, which specific context should serve as the supervisory signal? Does the optimal choice vary from one token to the next? At present, addressing these questions typically requires costly training runs whose aggregate performance metrics obscure the dynamics at the level of individual tokens. We introduce a training-free diagnostic framework that operates at the highest resolution: per token, per question, and per teacher. We derive an ideal per-node gradient defined as the parameter update that maximally increases the student's probability of success. We then develop a scalable targeted-rollout algorithm to estimate this gradient efficiently, even for long chains of intermediate thoughts. The gradient alignment score, defined as the cosine similarity between this ideal gradient and any given distillation gradient, quantifies the extent to which a particular configuration approximates the ideal signal. Across a range of self-distillation settings and external teacher models, we observe that distillation guidance exhibits substantially higher alignment with the ideal on incorrect rollouts than on correct ones, where the student already performs well and the teacher's signal tends to become noisy. Furthermore, we find that the optimal distillation context depends jointly on the student model's capacity and the target task, and that no single universally effective configuration emerges. These findings motivate the use of per-task, per-token diagnostic analyses for distillation.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

When primed with only a handful of training samples, very large, pretrained language models such as GPT-3 have shown competitive results when compared to fully-supervised, fine-tuned, large, pretrained language models. We demonstrate that the order in which the samples are provided can make the difference between near state-of-the-art and random guess performance: essentially some permutations are "fantastic" and some not. We analyse this phenomenon in detail, establishing that: it is present across model sizes (even for the largest current models), it is not related to a specific subset of samples, and that a given good permutation for one model is not transferable to another. While one could use a development set to determine which permutations are performant, this would deviate from the true few-shot setting as it requires additional annotated data. Instead, we use the generative nature of language models to construct an artificial development set and based on entropy statistics of the candidate permutations on this set, we identify performant prompts. Our method yields a 13% relative improvement for GPT-family models across eleven different established text classification tasks.

Abstractive summarization models are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation, which assumes a deterministic (one-point) target distribution in which an ideal model will assign all the probability mass to the reference summary. This assumption may lead to performance degradation during inference, where the model needs to compare several system-generated (candidate) summaries that have deviated from the reference summary. To address this problem, we propose a novel training paradigm which assumes a non-deterministic distribution so that different candidate summaries are assigned probability mass according to their quality. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art result on the CNN/DailyMail (47.78 ROUGE-1) and XSum (49.07 ROUGE-1) datasets. Further analysis also shows that our model can estimate probabilities of candidate summaries that are more correlated with their level of quality.

Deployment of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) is costly, and as these models increase in size, the associated costs will become even more considerable. Consequently, different methods have been proposed to accelerate the token generation process and reduce costs. Speculative decoding (SD) is among the most promising approaches to speed up the LLM decoding process by verifying multiple tokens in parallel and using an auxiliary smaller draft model to generate the possible tokens. In SD, usually, one draft model is used to serve a specific target model; however, in practice, LLMs are diverse, and we might need to deal with many target models or more than one target model simultaneously. In this scenario, it is not clear which draft model should be used for which target model, and searching among different draft models or training customized draft models can further increase deployment costs. In this paper, we first introduce a novel multi-target scenario for the deployment of draft models for faster inference. Then, we present a novel, more efficient sorted speculative decoding mechanism that outperforms regular baselines in multi-target settings. We evaluated our method on Spec-Bench in different settings, including base models such as Vicuna 7B, 13B, and LLama Chat 70B. Our results suggest that our draft models perform better than baselines for multiple target models at the same time.

We present Neural Attention Search (NAtS), a framework that automatically evaluates the importance of each token within a sequence and determines if the corresponding token can be dropped after several steps. This approach can efficiently reduce the KV cache sizes required by transformer-based models during inference and thus reduce inference costs. In this paper, we design a search space that contains three token types: (i) Global Tokens will be preserved and queried by all the following tokens. (ii) Local Tokens survive until the next global token appears. (iii) Sliding Window Tokens have an impact on the inference of a fixed size of the next following tokens. Similar to the One-Shot Neural Architecture Search approach, this token-type information can be learned jointly with the architecture weights via a learnable attention mask. Experiments on both training a new transformer from scratch and fine-tuning existing large language models show that NAtS can efficiently reduce the KV cache size required for the models while maintaining the models' performance.

When using agent-task datasets to enhance agent capabilities for Large Language Models (LLMs), current methodologies often treat all tokens within a sample equally. However, we argue that tokens serving different roles - specifically, reasoning tokens versus boilerplate tokens (e.g., those governing output format) - differ significantly in importance and learning complexity, necessitating their disentanglement and distinct treatment. To address this, we propose a novel Shuffle-Aware Discriminator (SHAD) for adaptive token discrimination. SHAD classifies tokens by exploiting predictability differences observed after shuffling input-output combinations across samples: boilerplate tokens, due to their repetitive nature among samples, maintain predictability, whereas reasoning tokens do not. Using SHAD, we propose the Reasoning-highlighted Fine-Tuning (RFT) method, which adaptively emphasizes reasoning tokens during fine-tuning, yielding notable performance gains over common Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT).

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.

Despite its simplicity and efficacy, the high token expenditure of self-consistency can limit its practical utility. Here we investigate if self-consistency can be made more token-efficient for long chain-of-thought reasoning tasks, while preserving its parallelism, through early hypothesis pruning. Concretely, we generate all solutions in parallel, but periodically prune intermediate hypotheses that are deemed unnecessary based on two lightweight indicators: (a) the model's own confidence in individual hypotheses, and (b) lexical coverage of all current hypotheses by candidate subsets that are under consideration for continued retention. We design a fast weighted set cover algorithm that utilizes the two indicators; our evaluation of five LLMs on three math benchmarks shows that this method can improve token efficiency for all models, by 10-35% in many cases.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, yet they encounter significant computational bottlenecks due to the massive volume of visual tokens. Consequently, visual token pruning, which substantially reduces the token count, has emerged as a critical technique for accelerating MLLM inference. Existing approaches focus on token importance, diversity, or an intuitive combination of both, without a principled framework for their optimal integration. To address this issue, we first conduct a systematic analysis to characterize the trade-off between token importance and semantic diversity. Guided by this analysis, we propose the Importance and Diversity Pruner (IDPruner), which leverages the Maximal Marginal Relevance (MMR) algorithm to achieve a Pareto-optimal balance between these two objectives. Crucially, our method operates without requiring attention maps, ensuring full compatibility with FlashAttention and efficient deployment via one-shot pruning. We conduct extensive experiments across various model architectures and multimodal benchmarks, demonstrating that IDPruner achieves state-of-the-art performance and superior generalization across diverse architectures and tasks. Notably, on Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct, IDPruner retains 95.18\% of baseline performance when pruning 75\% of the tokens, and still maintains 86.40\% even under an extreme 90\% pruning ratio. Our code is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AngelSlim.

We propose an alternate approach to quantifying how well language models learn natural language: we ask how well they match the statistical tendencies of natural language. To answer this question, we analyze whether text generated from language models exhibits the statistical tendencies present in the human-generated text on which they were trained. We provide a framework--paired with significance tests--for evaluating the fit of language models to these trends. We find that neural language models appear to learn only a subset of the tendencies considered, but align much more closely with empirical trends than proposed theoretical distributions (when present). Further, the fit to different distributions is highly-dependent on both model architecture and generation strategy. As concrete examples, text generated under the nucleus sampling scheme adheres more closely to the type--token relationship of natural language than text produced using standard ancestral sampling; text from LSTMs reflects the natural language distributions over length, stopwords, and symbols surprisingly well.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Tasks that require character-level reasoning, such as counting or locating characters within words, remain challenging for contemporary language models. A common conjecture is that language models' reliance on subword units, rather than characters, contributes to their struggles with character-level tasks, yet recent studies offer conflicting conclusions about the role of tokenization, leaving its impact unclear. To address this gap, we introduce CharBench, a comprehensive benchmark of character-level tasks that is two orders of magnitude larger than existing alternatives. We evaluate a diverse range of leading open-weight and proprietary models on CharBench and find that it presents a significant challenge to modern LLMs, with an average accuracy of 43.6% and 32.3% on some tasks. We present an in-depth analysis of how intrinsic properties of words and their segmentations into tokens correspond to model performance. For counting tasks, we find that tokenization properties are weakly correlated with correctness, while the length of the queried word and the actual character count play a more significant part. In contrast, for tasks requiring intra-word positional understanding, performance is negatively correlated with the length of the token containing the queried character, suggesting that longer tokens obscure character position information for LLMs. We encourage future work to build on the benchmark and evaluation methodology introduced here as tools for improving model performance on such tasks.

A key component of in-context reasoning is the ability of language models (LMs) to bind entities for later retrieval. For example, an LM might represent "Ann loves pie" by binding "Ann" to "pie", allowing it to later retrieve "Ann" when asked "Who loves pie?" Prior research on short lists of bound entities found strong evidence that LMs implement such retrieval via a positional mechanism, where "Ann" is retrieved based on its position in context. In this work, we find that this mechanism generalizes poorly to more complex settings; as the number of bound entities in context increases, the positional mechanism becomes noisy and unreliable in middle positions. To compensate for this, we find that LMs supplement the positional mechanism with a lexical mechanism (retrieving "Ann" using its bound counterpart "pie") and a reflexive mechanism (retrieving "Ann" through a direct pointer). Through extensive experiments on nine models and ten binding tasks, we uncover a consistent pattern in how LMs mix these mechanisms to drive model behavior. We leverage these insights to develop a causal model combining all three mechanisms that estimates next token distributions with 95% agreement. Finally, we show that our model generalizes to substantially longer inputs of open-ended text interleaved with entity groups, further demonstrating the robustness of our findings in more natural settings. Overall, our study establishes a more complete picture of how LMs bind and retrieve entities in-context.

Single-prompt accuracy is the dominant way to benchmark language models, but it can miss reliability failures that matter. We evaluate a 15-model open-weight corpus, with the main reliability analyses focused on 10 instruct models across five classification and reasoning benchmarks under five prompt variants each, measuring accuracy, token-probability calibration, verbal-confidence calibration, verbal parse rate, and prompt-perturbation spread for every (model x dataset x variant) cell. We find three broad results. First, evaluation design can materially change the conclusion. Switching Expected Calibration Error (ECE) token from a raw to a label-set-normalised definition changes per-cell calibration by a mean absolute 0.149. More strikingly, pairing a chain-of-thought prompt with a first-character evaluator on ARC-Challenge reduces apparent accuracy by 72-88% across all five primary models; two independent repair procedures recover 93.8% and 102.7% of the lost performance, indicating an evaluator-side rather than model-side failure. Second, confidence signals are fragile. On MMLU-Pro, every primary model verbally reports confidence substantially above both its accuracy and its token-probability confidence on the same rows, and verbal parse rate can collapse for a single model on a single prompt variant. Third, prompt robustness does not track parameter count reliably. Across 10 instruct models, the correlation between model size and prompt-perturbation spread ranges from -0.244 to 0.474 across benchmarks. Taken together, these results show that reliability conclusions for small language models depend not only on the model being evaluated, but also on the evaluation pipeline used to measure it. We argue that calibration definitions, evaluator logic, verbal parseability, and prompt robustness should be reported explicitly when making reliability claims.

LLM inference is still evaluated mainly as a model or software problem: accuracy, latency, throughput, and hardware utilization. This is incomplete. At deployment scale, the relevant output is a quality-conditioned token produced under joint constraints from effective compute, delivered data-center power, cooling capacity, PUE, and utilization. We argue that the ML community should treat inference as energy-to-token production. We formalize this view with a dimensionally consistent Token Production Function in which token rate is bounded by both compute-per-token and energy-per-token ceilings. Listed API prices vary by over an order of magnitude across providers, but we use price dispersion only as directional motivation, not as causal evidence of marginal cost. The core physical question is instead: under fixed quality and service targets, when does the binding constraint move from theoretical peak compute toward delivered power, cooling, and operational efficiency? Under this framing, system optimizations -- latent KV-cache compression, sparse or heavily compressed attention, quantization, routing, and difficulty-adaptive reasoning -- are not merely local engineering tricks. They are energy-to-token levers because they reduce FLOPs/token, joules/token, memory traffic, or utilization losses under fixed (q^{*},s^{*}). We therefore call for inference papers and benchmarks to report Joules/token, active binding constraint, PUE-adjusted delivered power, and utilization-adjusted token output alongside accuracy and latency.

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

The output of Large Language Models (LLMs) are a function of the internal model's parameters and the input provided into the context window. The hypothesis presented here is that under a greedy sampling strategy the variance in the LLM's output is a function of the conceptual certainty embedded in the model's parametric knowledge, as well as the lexical variance in the input. Finetuning the model results in reducing the sensitivity of the model output to the lexical input variations. This is then applied to a classification problem and a probabilistic method is proposed for estimating the certainties of the predicted classes.

We systematically investigate multi-token prediction (MTP) capabilities within LLMs pre-trained for next-token prediction (NTP). We first show that such models inherently possess MTP capabilities via numerical marginalization over intermediate token probabilities, though performance is data-dependent and improves with model scale. Furthermore, we explore the challenges of integrating MTP heads into frozen LLMs and find that their hidden layers are strongly specialized for NTP, making adaptation non-trivial. Finally, we show that while joint training of MTP heads with the backbone improves performance, it cannot fully overcome this barrier, prompting further research in this direction. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of MTP applied to pretrained LLMs, informing strategies for accelerating inference through parallel token prediction.

Masked Language Modeling (MLM) has been one of the most prominent approaches for pretraining bidirectional text encoders due to its simplicity and effectiveness. One notable concern about MLM is that the special [MASK] symbol causes a discrepancy between pretraining data and downstream data as it is present only in pretraining but not in fine-tuning. In this work, we offer a new perspective on the consequence of such a discrepancy: We demonstrate empirically and theoretically that MLM pretraining allocates some model dimensions exclusively for representing [MASK] tokens, resulting in a representation deficiency for real tokens and limiting the pretrained model's expressiveness when it is adapted to downstream data without [MASK] tokens. Motivated by the identified issue, we propose MAE-LM, which pretrains the Masked Autoencoder architecture with MLM where [MASK] tokens are excluded from the encoder. Empirically, we show that MAE-LM improves the utilization of model dimensions for real token representations, and MAE-LM consistently outperforms MLM-pretrained models across different pretraining settings and model sizes when fine-tuned on the GLUE and SQuAD benchmarks.

Machine unlearning has emerged as a critical capability for addressing privacy, safety, and regulatory concerns in large language models (LLMs). Existing methods operate at the sequence level, applying uniform updates across all tokens despite only a subset encoding the knowledge targeted for removal. This introduces gradient noise, degrades utility, and leads to suboptimal forgetting. We propose TokenUnlearn, a token-level attribution framework that identifies and selectively targets critical tokens. Our approach combines knowledge-aware signals via masking, and entropy-aware signals to yield importance scores for precise token selection. We develop two complementary strategies: hard selection, applying unlearning only to high-importance tokens, and soft weighting, modulating gradient contributions based on importance scores. Both extend existing methods to token-level variants. Theoretical analysis shows token-level selection improves gradient signal-to-noise ratio. Experiments on TOFU and WMDP benchmarks across three model architectures demonstrate consistent improvements over sequence-level baselines in both forgetting effectiveness and utility preservation.

Speculative decoding is an inference-acceleration method for large language models (LLMs) where a small language model generates a draft-token sequence which is further verified by the target LLM in parallel. Recent works have advanced this method by establishing a draft-token tree, achieving superior performance over a single-sequence speculative decoding. However, those works independently generate tokens at each level of the tree, not leveraging the tree's entire diversifiability. Besides, their empirical superiority has been shown for fixed length of sequences, implicitly granting more computational resource to LLM for the tree-based methods. None of the existing works has conducted empirical studies with fixed target computational budgets despite its importance to resource-bounded devices. We present Recursive Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel tree-based method that samples draft tokens without replacement and maximizes the diversity of the tree. During RSD's drafting, the tree is built by either Gumbel-Top-k trick that draws tokens without replacement in parallel or Stochastic Beam Search that samples sequences without replacement while early-truncating unlikely draft sequences and reducing the computational cost of LLM. We empirically evaluate RSD with Llama 2 and OPT models, showing that RSD outperforms the baseline methods, consistently for fixed draft sequence length and in most cases for fixed computational budgets at LLM.

Large language models display remarkable capabilities in logical and mathematical reasoning, allowing them to solve complex tasks. Interestingly, these abilities emerge in networks trained on the simple task of next-token prediction. In this work, we present a theoretical framework for studying auto-regressive next-token predictors. We demonstrate that even simple models such as linear next-token predictors, trained on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data, can approximate any function efficiently computed by a Turing machine. We introduce a new complexity measure -- length complexity -- which measures the number of intermediate tokens in a CoT sequence required to approximate some target function, and analyze the interplay between length complexity and other notions of complexity. Finally, we show experimentally that simple next-token predictors, such as linear networks and shallow Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), display non-trivial performance on text generation and arithmetic tasks. Our results demonstrate that the power of language models can be attributed, to a great extent, to the auto-regressive next-token training scheme, and not necessarily to a particular choice of architecture.

Speculative decoding accelerates language model inference by using a fast drafter to propose candidate tokens that are then verified by a larger target model. Existing theory largely studies the stochastic, distribution-preserving setting, where the goal is to exactly sample from the target distribution. In contrast, many practical systems use greedy decoding, relaxed acceptance rules, or tree-based candidate sets, where success is governed by local ranking and threshold events rather than exact distributional equality. We develop a theory for these regimes. We identify that many common acceptance criteria have rejection regions that can be characterized as lower level sets of the target distribution. For these, we characterize the exact KL divergence required for rejection yielding exact certificates and sharp margin-based bounds for strict greedy decoding, additive and multiplicative relaxed acceptance, top-(m) relaxed criteria, and entropy-thresholded acceptance. We then extend the framework to greedy tree decoding, deriving exact and margin-only certificates for when the target greedy token remains covered by the drafter's top-(m) candidates. Finally, we evaluate the resulting certificates on Qwen3 models, showing that relaxed and tree-based criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance, especially on decoding steps with low target model distribution margin. These results complement existing distribution-preserving analyses of speculative decoding by characterizing the deterministic local acceptance events common in practical inference systems.

Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g., multiple-choice), involving intermediate reasoning steps in LLM responses is increasingly important. This added complexity complicates uncertainty quantification (UQ) because the probabilities assigned to answer tokens are conditioned on a vast space of preceding reasoning tokens. Direct marginalization is infeasible, and the dependency inflates probability estimates, causing overconfidence in UQ. To address this, we propose UQAC, an efficient method that narrows the reasoning space to a tractable size for marginalization. UQAC iteratively constructs an "attention chain" of tokens deemed "semantically crucial" to the final answer via a backtracking procedure. Starting from the answer tokens, it uses attention weights to identify the most influential predecessors, then iterates this process until reaching the input tokens. Similarity filtering and probability thresholding further refine the resulting chain, allowing us to approximate the marginal probabilities of the answer tokens, which serve as the LLM's confidence. We validate UQAC on multiple reasoning benchmarks with advanced open-source LLMs, demonstrating that it consistently delivers reliable UQ estimates with high computational efficiency.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.