Daily Papers

Self-sustained neural activity in the absence of ongoing external input is a fundamental feature of nervous system dynamics, yet the conditions under which it can emerge in biophysically grounded network models remain incompletely understood. We studied whether a recurrent network of Hodgkin-Huxley neurons with spike-timing-dependent plasticity and intrinsic stochasticity can maintain autonomous activity after brief transient stimulation. The simulated network comprised 200 neurons (160 excitatory, 40 inhibitory) with 80% connection probability, incorporating excitatory and inhibitory STDP, probabilistic vesicle release, probabilistic synapse formation, receptor variability, and voltage-dependent inhibition. After a brief 200 ms initialization stimulus to 30 excitatory neurons, the network received no further external input. In one 1800 s simulation and two additional 500 s simulations, the network maintained sparse, irregular activity without ongoing drive. In the 1800 s run, 67% of neurons exhibited mean firing rates below 1 Hz, the population mean firing rate was 1.13 +/- 1.34 Hz, participation increased across longer observation windows, and population-mean Fano factors remained near 1-2, consistent with irregular spike timing. Raster activity also showed spontaneous qualitative reorganizations in collective firing patterns over time. These findings suggest that recurrent Hodgkin-Huxley networks with plastic and stochastic synapses can sustain long-duration autonomous activity in a sparse firing regime after brief initialization.

Uncovering the rules governing the nonequilibrium dynamics of the membranes that define biological cells is of central importance to understanding the physics of living systems. We theoretically and computationally investigate the behavior of flexible quasispherical vesicles that exchange membrane constituents, internal volume, and heat with an external reservoir. The excess chemical potential and osmotic pressure difference imposed by the reservoir act as generalized thermodynamic driving forces that modulate vesicle morphology. We show that the renormalization of membrane mechanical properties by nonequilibrium driving gives rise to a morphological transition between a weakly driven regime, in which growing vesicles remain quasispherical, and a strongly driven regime, in which vesicles accommodate rapid membrane uptake by developing surface wrinkles. Additionally, we propose a minimal vesicle growth-shape law, derived using insights from stochastic thermodynamics, that robustly describes vesicle growth dynamics even in strongly driven, far-from-equilibrium regimes.

Biological processes, functions, and properties are intricately linked to the ensemble of protein conformations, rather than being solely determined by a single stable conformation. In this study, we have developed P2DFlow, a generative model based on SE(3) flow matching, to predict the structural ensembles of proteins. We specifically designed a valuable prior for the flow process and enhanced the model's ability to distinguish each intermediate state by incorporating an additional dimension to describe the ensemble data, which can reflect the physical laws governing the distribution of ensembles, so that the prior knowledge can effectively guide the generation process. When trained and evaluated on the MD datasets of ATLAS, P2DFlow outperforms other baseline models on extensive experiments, successfully capturing the observable dynamic fluctuations as evidenced in crystal structure and MD simulations. As a potential proxy agent for protein molecular simulation, the high-quality ensembles generated by P2DFlow could significantly aid in understanding protein functions across various scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/BLEACH366/P2DFlow

Proteolysis-targeting chimeras (PROTACs) represent a promising therapeutic modality that induces targeted protein degradation by hijacking the ubiquitin-proteasome system. However, rational PROTAC design remains challenging due to the complex interplay between molecular structure, target proteins, E3 ligases, and the cellular context. We present TACK, a statistical evaluation of degradation activity on a novel TArgeting Chimeras Knowledge dataset of 3,514 PROTACs and 6,561 degradation endpoints aggregated from three major repositories with standardized molecular representations, protein annotations, and experimental conditions. Using scaffold-based 5times5 cross-validation, we perform a rigorous statistical comparison of three machine learning methods to predict PROTAC degradation activity across three tasks: DC_{50} and Dmax regression, and binary activity classification. Feature ablation demonstrates that cellular context features and simple protein representations rival complex ESM protein embeddings, highlighting the importance of feature engineering over architectural sophistication. Models trained on the best performing features show that potency (pDC_{50}, R^2=0.66) is substantially more predictable than maximum degradation (Dmax, R^2=0.36). In activity prediction, statistical tests support that classical methods (XGBoost and MLP) significantly outperform PROTAC-STAN, a domain-specific graph neural network model (ROC-AUC: 0.85 vs. 0.74, p<0.001). Finally, we propose an ensemble-based uncertainty quantification approach showing that prediction variance correlates with prediction error (pDC_{50}: Spearman ρ=0.36, p<0.001; Dmax: ρ=0.69, p<0.001), enabling confidence-aware experimental prioritization. Our findings challenge assumptions about specialized architectures for degradation prediction and provide evidence-based guidance for ML-driven PROTAC assessment.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Uncovering stochastic reaction networks from data is central to single-cell biology. Simulation-based inference has evolved into a flexible paradigm for this purpose, circumventing the computational intractability of the likelihood. Notably, approximate Bayesian computation performs this inference by carrying out extensive Gillespie simulations, usually at a high computational cost. Here, we propose a simulation-free approximate Bayesian computation (SFABC) framework that avoids both simulation and explicit likelihood solutions of the network dynamics. Instead, SFABC exploits the Chemical Master Equation to formulate a tractable convex optimization with ensuing constraints, which are then used to accept sampled parameters consistent with the observed data. The resulting posterior approximation comes with theoretical guarantees: it can be tightened systematically, and it provably converges to the exact Bayesian posterior distributions. Using synthetic benchmarks, we show that SFABC matches the accuracy of standard simulation-based algorithms at a substantially reduced computational cost. We then showcase the applicability of SFABC to experimental systems biology by analyzing gene transcription bursting kinetics from snapshot, time-resolved, and cell-cycle-resolved single-cell data.

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated once per observation gap, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A 2 times 2 encoder times integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency p < 1/256) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

Generative modeling of peptide sequences requires navigating a discrete and highly constrained space in which many intermediate states are chemically implausible or unstable. Existing discrete diffusion and flow-based methods rely on reversing fixed corruption processes or following prescribed probability paths, which can force generation through low-likelihood regions and require countless sampling steps. We introduce Minimal-action discrete Schrödinger Bridge Matching (MadSBM), a rate-based generative framework for peptide design that formulates generation as a controlled continuous-time Markov process on the amino-acid edit graph. To yield probability trajectories that remain near high-likelihood sequence neighborhoods throughout generation, MadSBM 1) defines generation relative to a biologically informed reference process derived from pre-trained protein language model logits and 2) learns a time-dependent control field that biases transition rates to produce low-action transport paths from a masked prior to the data distribution. We finally introduce guidance to the MadSBM sampling procedure towards a specific functional objective, expanding the design space of therapeutic peptides; to our knowledge, this represents the first-ever application of discrete classifier guidance to Schrödinger bridge-based generative models.

Familial amyloid-β (Aβ) variants alter aggregation kinetics, but their interaction with structural brain connectivity remains incompletely understood. We developed a mutation-aware mechanistic model coupling a coarse-grained monomer--oligomer--fibril aggregation--fragmentation system to graph diffusion on the 540-node Budapest Reference Connectome component. Experimental Aβ_{42} nucleation scores scaled primary nucleation rates for seven variants relative to wild type. Robustness was examined using mutation-score uncertainty, alternative kinetic mappings, global sensitivity analysis, seed and edge-weight perturbations, degree-preserving randomized connectomes, spatial propagation analysis, synthetic ABC-SMC parameter recovery, posterior prediction, and Chemical Langevin simulations. E22G showed the earliest threshold crossing and greatest cumulative oligomer burden, whereas A2V was delayed under the selected mapping. Mutation rankings persisted across tested network perturbations, although regional burden patterns depended on topology. Connectome distance from seed regions was associated with later oligomer arrival (Spearman ρapprox0.92). Under inferred parameter uncertainty, the mean timing-rank correlation was 0.990 and cumulative-burden ordering was preserved in every posterior draw, while exact peak-amplitude ordering was less stable. Stochastic ensemble medians retained the deterministic ordering despite overlap among trajectories. Within this proof-of-concept framework, mutation-dependent kinetics primarily influence aggregation timing and cumulative burden, while connectivity shapes spatial propagation. Nominal background rates, model-time units, and synthetic parameter recovery limit interpretation to mechanistic comparisons rather than clinically calibrated prediction.

Cells that collide with each other repolarize away from contact, in a process called contact inhibition of locomotion (CIL), which is necessary for correct development of the embryo. CIL can occur even when cells make a micron-scale contact with a neighbor - much smaller than their size. How precisely can a cell sense cell-cell contact and repolarize in the correct direction? What factors control whether a cell recognizes it has contacted a neighbor? We propose a theoretical model for the limits of CIL where cells recognize the presence of another cell by binding the protein ephrin with the Eph receptor. This recognition is made difficult by the presence of interfering ligands that bind nonspecifically. Both theoretical predictions and simulation results show that it becomes more difficult to sense cell-cell contact when it is difficult to distinguish ephrin from the interfering ligands, or when there are more interfering ligands, or when the contact width decreases. However, the error of estimating contact position remains almost constant when the contact width changes. This happens because the cell gains spatial information largely from the boundaries of cell-cell contact. We study using statistical decision theory the likelihood of a false positive CIL event in the absence of cell-cell contact, and the likelihood of a false negative where CIL does not occur when another cell is present. Our results suggest that the cell is more likely to make incorrect decisions when the contact width is very small or so large that it nears the cell's perimeter. However, in general, we find that cells have the ability to make reasonably reliable CIL decisions even for very narrow (micron-scale) contacts, even if the concentration of interfering ligands is ten times that of the correct ligands.

The mobility of particles in fluid membranes is a fundamental aspect of many biological processes. In a 1975 paper [1], Saffman and Delbr\"uck demonstrated how the presence of external Stokesian solvents is crucial in regularising the apparently singular flow within an infinite flat membrane. In the present paper, we extend this classical work and compute the rotational mobility of a rigid finite-sized particle located inside a spherical membrane embedded in Stokesian solvents. Treating the particle as a spherical cap, we solve for the flow semi-analytically as a function of the Saffman-Delbr\"uck (SD) length (ratio of membrane to solvent viscosity) and the solid angle formed by the particle. We study the dependence of the mobility and flow on inclusion size and SD length, recovering the flat-space mobility as a special case. Our results will be applicable to a range of biological problems including rotational Brownian motion, the dynamics of lipid rafts, and the motion of aquaporin channels in response to water flow. Our method will provide a novel way of measuring a membrane's viscosity from the rotational diffusion of large inclusions, for which the commonly used planar Saffman-Delbr\"uck theory does not apply.

Genetic engineering of cells has a range of applications in treating incurable diseases. Plasmid DNA is a popular choice of nucleic acid for cell engineering due to its low cost and stability. However, plasmid DNA must survive the protective mechanisms present in the cell's cytoplasm to enter the nucleus for translation. Many of the existing methods for nucleic acid delivery, such as chemical-based and virus-based delivery, suffer from drawbacks induced by the nucleic acid carrier itself. Mechanical methods present an alternative to nucleic acid carriers by physically producing openings in the cell to deliver cargos. However, in most systems, the cell membrane openings are too small to deliver large cargos, or the poration process leads to low cell viability. In this study, we present a microfluidic device with integrated high aspect ratio nanostructures that repeatably rupture the cell membrane and nuclear envelope. These sharp-tipped nanolancets penetrate the cell deep enough to allow direct delivery of cargos into the nucleus, but still allow for cell recovery after treatment. We show the device's ability to deliver cargo to a variety of cell types while maintaining high viability. Then, we demonstrate the rapid onset of plasmid DNA expression that results from direct nuclear delivery of naked DNA, showing expression speeds comparable to microinjection, but with significantly greater throughput. We envision the use of this device as a tool to quickly produce high quantities of genetically engineered cells to treat a myriad of diseases.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

Multiple epidemic waves are often taken as evidence that simple compartmental models are structurally inadequate. Yet the key question is not whether a simple model can reproduce multiple peaks, but how much time-varying structure is minimally required to preserve observed epidemic-wave patterns and what can legitimately be inferred from such a representation. Using the susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model, we develop a framework for peak-preserving dynamic parsimony linking dynamical systems, inverse problems, statistical inference, and infectious-disease modeling. We establish exact multi-wave representability under time-varying transmission, characterize conditions for epidemic peaks and resurgence, and show the incidence-only non-identifiability of time-varying transmission and removal rates. Our main methodological contribution is minimal peak-preserving complexity (MPPC): the smallest dimension of a positive time-varying transmission function whose posterior-predictive trajectories preserve salient features, including peak count, timing, height, trough depth, and whole-curve agreement. We estimate MPPC using peak-aware approximate Bayesian computation and evaluate it through six reproducible stress tests, a Philippine COVID-19 reported-case proof of concept, and short-term future-knot projection. Across diverse data-generating mechanisms, low-dimensional time-varying SIR models can preserve aggregate epidemic-wave topology with modest dynamic complexity. However, accurate trajectory compression does not imply recovery of the underlying mechanism or reliable long-term counterfactual prediction. The framework therefore separates four often-conflated questions: representability, minimal dynamic complexity, mechanistic identifiability, and projection validity, providing a basis for parsimonious modeling of complex epidemic trajectories.

This monograph attempts a theory of every 'thing' that can be distinguished from other things in a statistical sense. The ensuing statistical independencies, mediated by Markov blankets, speak to a recursive composition of ensembles (of things) at increasingly higher spatiotemporal scales. This decomposition provides a description of small things; e.g., quantum mechanics - via the Schrodinger equation, ensembles of small things - via statistical mechanics and related fluctuation theorems, through to big things - via classical mechanics. These descriptions are complemented with a Bayesian mechanics for autonomous or active things. Although this work provides a formulation of every thing, its main contribution is to examine the implications of Markov blankets for self-organisation to nonequilibrium steady-state. In brief, we recover an information geometry and accompanying free energy principle that allows one to interpret the internal states of something as representing or making inferences about its external states. The ensuing Bayesian mechanics is compatible with quantum, statistical and classical mechanics and may offer a formal description of lifelike particles.

Retrosynthesis planning is a fundamental challenge in chemistry which aims at designing reaction pathways from commercially available starting materials to a target molecule. Each step in multi-step retrosynthesis planning requires accurate prediction of possible precursor molecules given the target molecule and confidence estimates to guide heuristic search algorithms. We model single-step retrosynthesis planning as a distribution learning problem in a discrete state space. First, we introduce the Markov Bridge Model, a generative framework aimed to approximate the dependency between two intractable discrete distributions accessible via a finite sample of coupled data points. Our framework is based on the concept of a Markov bridge, a Markov process pinned at its endpoints. Unlike diffusion-based methods, our Markov Bridge Model does not need a tractable noise distribution as a sampling proxy and directly operates on the input product molecules as samples from the intractable prior distribution. We then address the retrosynthesis planning problem with our novel framework and introduce RetroBridge, a template-free retrosynthesis modeling approach that achieves state-of-the-art results on standard evaluation benchmarks.

Cell tracking is a subject of active research gathering great interest in medicine and biology. Positron emission tomography (PET) is well suited for tracking radio-labeled cells in vivo due to its exceptional sensitivity and whole-body capability. For validation, ground-truth data are desirable that realistically mimic the flow of cells in a clinical situation. This study develops a workflow (CeFloPS) for simulating moving radio-labeled cells in a human phantom. From the XCAT phantom, the blood vessels are reduced to nodal networks along which cells can move and distribute to organs and tissues. The movement is directed by the blood flow, which is calculated in each node using the Hagen-Pooiseuille equation and Kirchhoff's laws assuming laminar flow. Organs are voxelized and movement of cells from artery entry to vein exit is generated via a biased 3D random walk. The probabilities of cells moving or remaining in tissues are derived from rate constants of tracer kinetic-based compartment modeling. PET listmode data is generated using the Monte-Carlo simulation framework GATE based on the definition of a large-body PET scanner with cell paths as moving radioactive sources and the XCAT phantom providing attenuation data. From the flow simulation of 100,000 cells, 100 sample cells were further processed by GATE and listmode data was reconstructed into images for comparison. As demonstrated by comparisons of simulated and reconstructed cell distributions, CeFloPS is capable of simulating cell behavior in whole-body PET. It achieves this simulation in a way that is anatomically and physiologically reasonable, thereby providing valuable data for the development and validation of cell tracking algorithms.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Destructive single-cell measurements provide unpaired population snapshots rather than observations of the same cells across conditions. Local cell states and transition requests may also be insufficient to distinguish responses across source populations. We introduce TempoBridge, a common source-conditioned transport formulation for temporal, genetic, and chemical population transitions. Source cells initialize latent transport and provide a fixed empirical population summary. The velocity field receives this summary alongside the evolving cell state, flow time, and a structured transition descriptor. Minibatch optimal transport (OT) supplies couplings only for conditional flow-matching training paths; inference requires neither target expression nor OT computation. On held-out donors, TempoBridge achieves an Energy distance of 0.129 versus 0.144 for scGen. Genetic mean-expression L_2 error is 2.261 versus 3.156 for scGPT-scratch under Seen 2/2. On held-out compounds, condition-averaged drug-effect correlation is 0.598 versus 0.561 for the CellFlow adapter. Temporal ablations show higher mean distributional error after removing source context, replacing optimal transport with random pairing, or replacing flow matching with static residual regression. Together, these results demonstrate the predictive utility of a common source-conditioned transport formulation across held-out donors, gene combinations, and compounds.

Predicting cellular responses to perturbations is a central problem in cellular biology, with broad applications in systems biology and drug discovery. This task is challenging because cellular responses can be complex and cell-state dependent, intrinsic cell-to-cell variability can be confounded with perturbation effects, and destructive single-cell RNA sequencing precludes paired measurements of the same cell before and after treatment. Flow matching transports control cells to perturbed states flexibly, but acting on the full cell state can confound perturbation effects with pre-existing cell-to-cell variability. Disentangled approaches separate responsive from invariant components, but model perturbations through prescribed mechanisms, such as latent shifts or graph edits, limiting their flexibility. We address both limitations in a unified framework. A variational encoder disentangles each cell into an invariant block, capturing state unaffected by the perturbation, and a responsive block, capturing state it changes, through conditional priors and an information-theoretic invariance constraint. Conditional flow matching transports only the responsive block, conditioned on the perturbation and invariant state, yielding a flexible, data-driven model of perturbation effects without confounding pre-existing variability. Across several benchmarks, our method outperforms the strongest published method in settings involving combinatorial and unseen perturbation prediction.

Applying the method of moments to the chemical master equation (CME) appearing in stochastic chemical kinetics often leads to the so-called closure problem. Recently, several authors showed that this problem can be partially overcome using moment-based semidefinite programs (SDPs). In particular, they showed that moment-based SDPs can be used to calculate rigorous bounds on various descriptions of the stochastic chemical kinetic system's stationary distribution(s) -- for example, mean molecular counts, variances in these counts, and so on. In this paper, we show that these ideas can be extended to the corresponding dynamic problem, calculating time-varying bounds on the same descriptions.

A new type of cooperativity termed temporal cooperativity [Biophys. Chem. 105 585-593 (2003), Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem. 58 113-142 (2007)], emerges in the signal transduction module of phosphorylation-dephosphorylation cycle (PdPC). It utilizes multiple kinetic cycles in time, in contrast to allosteric cooperativity that utilizes multiple subunits in a protein. In the present paper, we thoroughly investigate both the deterministic (microscopic) and stochastic (mesoscopic) models, and focus on the identification of the source of temporal cooperativity via comparing with allosteric cooperativity. A thermodynamic analysis confirms again the claim that the chemical equilibrium state exists if and only if the phosphorylation potential triangle G=0, in which case the amplification of sensitivity is completely abolished. Then we provide comprehensive theoretical and numerical analysis with the first-order and zero-order assumptions in phosphorylation-dephosphorylation cycle respectively. Furthermore, it is interestingly found that the underlying mathematics of temporal cooperativity and allosteric cooperativity are equivalent, and both of them can be expressed by "dissociation constants", which also characterizes the essential differences between the simple and ultrasensitive PdPC switches. Nevertheless, the degree of allosteric cooperativity is restricted by the total number of sites in a single enzyme molecule which can not be freely regulated, while temporal cooperativity is only restricted by the total number of molecules of the target protein which can be regulated in a wide range and gives rise to the ultrasensitivity phenomenon.

Monodisperse, purely repulsive, hard spheres (MPRHS) are an important model system for mechanistically exploring phase behavior in atomic systems and colloids. Since the 1940s, phase transitions in these systems have been obtained via simulation, theory, and experiments. But there is a gap in this literature: despite decades of reports of phase transition from one pure state to another, no computational studies report spontaneous phase separation into coexisting domains of liquid and crystal regions. This gap owes its origin to the underlying mechanism of entropically-driven phase separation in MPRHS - the competition between short-range entropy and long-range entropy. Frenkel proposed that spontaneous phase separation in simulations of up to 1,000,000 particles would require more than 317,000,000 years to sample enough microstates to converge to phase separated macrostate. Some brute-force simulations do show brief spontaneous coexistence but a metastable crystal or fluid subsequently overtakes the system. To bypass these difficulties, many studies use seeding, gravity, or direct construction of liquid and solid phases to study interfacial energy and nucleation rates of MPRHS systems. WCA potentials have also been used to bypass metastability, where softness provides free volume, lowers osmotic pressure and the energy barrier. It is argued that the transition path taken in bypassing metastability is mechanistically the same as without triggers. But as acknowledged by Alder & Wainwright, explicit observation of spontaneous coexistence is central to computational prediction of first-order transition. Such observation would provide satisfying demonstration of Frenkel's entropy exchange mechanism. We explore literature revealing these interesting behaviors and conclude that computational demonstration of Frenkel's mechanism for MPRHS awaits large systems with careful hardness perturbations.

Learning the underlying dynamics of single cells from snapshot data has gained increasing attention in scientific and machine learning research. The destructive measurement technique and cell proliferation/death result in unpaired and unbalanced data between snapshots, making the learning of the underlying dynamics challenging. In this paper, we propose joint Velocity-Growth Flow Matching (VGFM), a novel paradigm that jointly learns state transition and mass growth of single-cell populations via flow matching. VGFM builds an ideal single-cell dynamics containing velocity of state and growth of mass, driven by a presented two-period dynamic understanding of the static semi-relaxed optimal transport, a mathematical tool that seeks the coupling between unpaired and unbalanced data. To enable practical usage, we approximate the ideal dynamics using neural networks, forming our joint velocity and growth matching framework. A distribution fitting loss is also employed in VGFM to further improve the fitting performance for snapshot data. Extensive experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that VGFM can capture the underlying biological dynamics accounting for mass and state variations over time, outperforming existing approaches for single-cell dynamics modeling.

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

The prospect of imaging single biomolecules, viruses and cells with intense, ultrashort X-ray pulses has driven the development of X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs). However, the weak scattering from small particles is easily swamped by background from residual gas, which has so far limited applications to strongly scattering targets such as viruses, cell organelles and cells. Here we report a three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of an isolated 1-MDa membrane-protein complex, photosystem I (PS I), from single-particle diffraction data. PS I trimers were aerosolised by charge-reduction electrospray ionisation and injected into the European XFEL beam, with partial helium gas exchange reducing background scattering by 80%. From 32 788 diffraction patterns of single trimers in random orientations, we reconstructed the 3D electron density to a resolution of 3.8 nm, limited by the detector geometry. The disc-shaped density, about 22 nm across and 10 nm thick, matches the size of a PS I trimer in a detergent micelle and is consistent with the compaction predicted by molecular dynamics simulations of the complex in vacuo and observed in native mass spectrometry. These results show that membrane-protein complexes can be imaged in vacuo with X-ray lasers, an important step towards ultrafast diffractive imaging of single macromolecules.

Building Virtual Cells that can accurately simulate cellular responses to perturbations is a long-standing goal in systems biology. A fundamental challenge is that high-throughput single-cell sequencing is destructive: the same cell cannot be observed both before and after a perturbation. Thus, perturbation prediction requires mapping unpaired control and perturbed populations. Existing models address this by learning maps between distributions, but typically assume a single fixed response distribution when conditioned on observed cellular context (e.g., cell type) and the perturbation type. In reality, responses vary systematically due to unobservable latent factors such as microenvironmental fluctuations and complex batch effects, forming a manifold of possible distributions for the same observed conditions. To account for this variability, we introduce PerturbDiff, which shifts modeling from individual cells to entire distributions. By embedding distributions as points in a Hilbert space, we define a diffusion-based generative process operating directly over probability distributions. This allows PerturbDiff to capture population-level response shifts across hidden factors. Benchmarks on established datasets show that PerturbDiff achieves state-of-the-art performance in single-cell response prediction and generalizes substantially better to unseen perturbations. See our project page (https://katarinayuan.github.io/PerturbDiff-ProjectPage/), where code and data will be made publicly available (https://github.com/DeepGraphLearning/PerturbDiff).

We formalize a transfinite Phi process that treats all possibility embeddings as operators on structured state spaces including complete lattices, Banach and Hilbert spaces, and orthomodular lattices. We prove a determinization lemma showing that lifting to sets or distributions yields a deterministic global dynamic, an ordinal stabilization theorem sending operator transforms to the fixed subspace by stage omega under normal spectral contraction, and a product of Riesz projections theorem for commuting layers. We establish a compositionality law for lifted maps, show closure of Phi packings, and present a quantitative application to sensory depletion that models tissue removal as a projection and derives strict decreases in the attainable fixed point under minimal monotonicity and positivity assumptions. We also state measurable conditions for probabilistic lifts, give explicit non normal and non commuting counterexamples, and provide finite dimensional and stochastic witnesses together with per theorem scope tables and a small reproducible code appendix.

Simulating trajectories of multi-particle systems on complex energy landscapes is a central task in molecular dynamics (MD) and drug discovery, but remains challenging at scale due to computationally expensive and long simulations. Previous approaches leverage techniques such as flow or Schrödinger bridge matching to implicitly learn joint trajectories through data snapshots. However, many systems, including biomolecular systems and heterogeneous cell populations, undergo dynamic interactions that evolve over their trajectory and cannot be captured through static snapshots. To close this gap, we introduce Entangled Schrödinger Bridge Matching (EntangledSBM), a framework that learns the first- and second-order stochastic dynamics of interacting, multi-particle systems where the direction and magnitude of each particle's path depend dynamically on the paths of the other particles. We define the Entangled Schrödinger Bridge (EntangledSB) problem as solving a coupled system of bias forces that entangle particle velocities. We show that our framework accurately simulates heterogeneous cell populations under perturbations and rare transitions in high-dimensional biomolecular systems.

Peptide therapeutics, a major class of medicines, have achieved remarkable success across diseases such as diabetes and cancer, with landmark examples such as GLP-1 receptor agonists revolutionizing the treatment of type-2 diabetes and obesity. Despite their success, designing peptides that satisfy multiple conflicting objectives, such as target binding affinity, solubility, and membrane permeability, remains a major challenge. Classical drug development and structure-based design are ineffective for such tasks, as they fail to optimize global functional properties critical for therapeutic efficacy. Existing generative frameworks are largely limited to continuous spaces, unconditioned outputs, or single-objective guidance, making them unsuitable for discrete sequence optimization across multiple properties. To address this, we present PepTune, a multi-objective discrete diffusion model for the simultaneous generation and optimization of therapeutic peptide SMILES. Built on the Masked Discrete Language Model (MDLM) framework, PepTune ensures valid peptide structures with state-dependent masking schedules and penalty-based objectives. To guide the diffusion process, we propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-based strategy that balances exploration and exploitation to iteratively refine Pareto-optimal sequences. MCTS integrates classifier-based rewards with search-tree expansion, overcoming gradient estimation challenges and data sparsity inherent to discrete spaces. Using PepTune, we generate diverse, chemically-modified peptides optimized for multiple therapeutic properties, including target binding affinity, membrane permeability, solubility, hemolysis, and non-fouling characteristics on various disease-relevant targets. In total, our results demonstrate that MCTS-guided discrete diffusion is a powerful and modular approach for multi-objective sequence design in discrete state spaces.

Scientific discovery often involves optimising expensive-to-evaluate objectives over vast, structured, and open-ended hypothesis spaces, such as molecules, protein sequences, and computer programs. Generative models such as large language models (LLMs) provide expressive priors over such spaces, but their likelihoods and self-assessments are unreliable proxies for the objectives and calibrated epistemic uncertainty, especially for novel candidates outside the observed data distribution. We introduce the Large Discovery Model (LDM), an empirically grounded recurrent architecture that couples a generative model with a Bayesian non-parametric reward surrogate model. The generative model proposes and refines candidate designs, while the surrogate predicts their performance and quantifies uncertainty, yielding an uncertainty-aware value that guides candidate generation, refinement, and selection. The discovery memory and the surrogate model are continually updated as each new experimental observation arrives. We evaluate LDM on three scenarios spanning different design modalities and objectives, including neural-network training, antibody design, and molecular optimisation. Compared to LLM-only reflection or traditional statistical search across these domains, LDM achieves a 2.4times greater reduction in validation BPB, an 18.2% relative decrease in binding energy, and more than 60% relative gains in molecular multi-objective performance. These results suggests that LDM could serve as a general-purpose discovery engine for effective search over open-ended hypothesis spaces.

Biological tissues exhibit complex behaviors with their dynamics often resembling inert soft matter such as liquids, polymers, colloids, and liquid crystals. These analogies enable physics-based approaches for investigations of emergent behaviors in biological processes. A well-studied case is the spreading of cellular aggregates on solid surfaces, where they display dynamics similar to viscous droplets. In vivo, however, cells and tissues are in a confined environment with varying geometries and mechanical properties to which they need to adapt. In this work, we compressed cellular aggregates between two solid surfaces and studied their dynamics using microscopy, and computer simulations. The confined cellular aggregates transitioned from compressed spheres into dynamic living capillary bridges exhibiting bridge thinning and a convex-to-concave meniscus curvature transition. We found that the stability of the bridge is determined by the interplay between cell growth and cell spreading on the confining surfaces. This interaction leads to bridge rupture at a critical length scale determined by the distance between the plates. The force distributions, formation and stability regimes of the living capillary bridges were characterized with full 3D computer simulations that included cell division, migration and growth dynamics, directly showing how mechanical principles govern the behavior of the living bridges; cellular aggregates display jamming and stiffening analogously to granular matter, and cell division along the long axis enhances thinning. Based on our results, we propose a new class of active soft matter behavior, where cellular aggregates exhibit liquid-like adaptation to confinement, but with self-organized rupturing driven by biological activity.

Cellular form and function emerge from complex mechanochemical systems within the cytoplasm. No systematic strategy currently exists to infer large-scale physical properties of a cell from its many molecular components. This is a significant obstacle to understanding biophysical processes such as cell adhesion and migration. Here, we develop a data-driven biophysical modeling approach to learn the mechanical behavior of adherent cells. We first train neural networks to predict forces generated by adherent cells from images of cytoskeletal proteins. Strikingly, experimental images of a single focal adhesion protein, such as zyxin, are sufficient to predict forces and generalize to unseen biological regimes. This protein field alone contains enough information to yield accurate predictions even if forces themselves are generated by many interacting proteins. We next develop two approaches - one explicitly constrained by physics, the other more agnostic - that help construct data-driven continuum models of cellular forces using this single focal adhesion field. Both strategies consistently reveal that cellular forces are encoded by two different length scales in adhesion protein distributions. Beyond adherent cell mechanics, our work serves as a case study for how to integrate neural networks in the construction of predictive phenomenological models in cell biology, even when little knowledge of the underlying microscopic mechanisms exist.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Growing biochemical systems are intrinsically noisy, with one important source of stochasticity arising from the discrete reaction events of the underlying biochemical network. Because growing systems do not generally admit stationary abundance distributions, it is unclear how to separate this intrinsic chemical noise from other sources of variability in population and single-cell data. Here we develop a large-deviation theory for exponentially growing stochastic chemical reaction networks by decomposing abundance into volume and composition. In these coordinates, balanced growth corresponds to a stable composition together with exponentially increasing volume. We show that composition fluctuations satisfy a large-deviation principle with speed equal to the volume of the growing system, and the corresponding quasipotential is selected by a solution of the contact Hamilton--Jacobi equation. We also derive a fluctuation theory for accumulated observables and show that their covariances decay with accumulated-volume, rather than with physical time. Applications to a minimal autocatalytic network and a coarse-grained cellular growth model demonstrate how the theory predicts composition quasipotentials, growth-rate fluctuations, and correlations between observables. The framework therefore provides a stochastic null model for single-cell heterogeneity generated by the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying chemical reaction network.

The challenge of translating vast, multimodal biological data into predictive and mechanistic understanding of cellular function is a central theme in modern biology. Virtual cells, or digital cellular twins, have emerged as a critical paradigm to meet this challenge by creating integrative computational models of cellular processes. This review synthesizes the evolution and current state of the virtual cell, from foundational mechanistic frameworks like the Virtual Cell that employ deterministic and stochastic simulations to the recent transformative impact of artificial intelligence and foundation models. We examine the core technological pillars required to build these models, including the integration of various data types, such as single-cell and spatial omics, the spectrum of modeling approaches, and the bioengineering principles that connect simulation to application. We further discuss key applications, frameworks for model benchmarking and validation, and the significant hurdles that remain, including computational scalability, parameter inference, and ethical considerations, which provides a roadmap for development of predictive virtual cells that promise to revolutionize biomedical research and clinical practice.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

We analyze a class of cell-bulk coupled PDE-ODE models, motivated by quorum and diffusion sensing phenomena in microbial systems, that characterize communication between localized spatially segregated dynamically active signaling compartments that have a permeable boundary. Each cell secretes a signaling chemical into the bulk region at a constant rate and receives a feedback of the bulk chemical from the entire collection of cells. This global feedback, which activates signaling pathways within the cells, modifies the intracellular dynamics according to the external environment. The cell secretion and global feedback are regulated by permeability parameters across the cell membrane. For arbitrary reaction-kinetics within each cell, the method of matched asymptotic expansions is used in the limit of small cell radius to construct steady-state solutions of the PDE-ODE model, and to derive a globally coupled nonlinear matrix eigenvalue problem (GCEP) that characterizes the linear stability properties of the steady-states. In the limit of large bulk diffusivity an asymptotic analysis of the PDE-ODE model leads to a limiting ODE system for the spatial average of the concentration in the bulk region that is coupled to the intracellular dynamics within the cells. Results from the linear stability theory and ODE dynamics are illustrated for Sel'kov reaction-kinetics, where the kinetic parameters are chosen so that each cell is quiescent when uncoupled from the bulk medium. For various specific spatial configurations of cells, the linear stability theory is used to construct phase diagrams in parameter space characterizing where a switch-like emergence of intracellular oscillations can occur through a Hopf bifurcation.

Anterior-posterior polarization in the Drosophila oocyte requires posterior localization of oskar mRNA. oskar mRNA is produced in the anteriorly situated nurse cells, moved into the oocyte, and assembled into oskar-Staufen ribonucleoprotein particles (RNPs). These RNPs then move through the oocyte and interact with the cortex, where myosin-V binds them to the actin network and kinesin-1 removes them along cortically anchored microtubules. This cortical tug-of-war takes place against an anterior-to-posterior decrease in microtubule density. How the interplay between cytoplasmic transport and cortical binding and unbinding produces a stable posterior cap is unclear. Here, we combine quantitative microscopy, photoconversion experiments, experimental perturbations, and biophysical modeling to show that posterior localization emerges from position-dependent cortical exchange coupled to cytoplasmic diffusion. Our model, which accounts for the tendency of RNPs to demix, suggests that two key parameters that determine the observed localization pattern are the total amount of oskar and the ratio of cortical unbinding to binding rates (the exchange equilibrium constant). Given oskar volume fractions in wild-type, the measured exchange constant is such that oskar localizes to the posterior cortex without demixing. If the balance is broken, say by increasing unbinding rates, oskar irreversibly demixes into cytoplasmic droplets. This is consistent with observations from our experimental perturbations. Our results show how bulk diffusion and cortical exchange, in the face of oskar RNPs' self-attraction, convert a cytoskeletal asymmetry into robust developmental polarity.

This paper presents a mathematical framework for optimizing drug delivery in cancer treatment using a nonlocal model of solid tumor growth. We present a coupled system of partial differential equations that incorporate long-range cellular interactions through integral terms and drug-induced cell death. The model accounts for spatial heterogeneity in both tumor cell density and drug concentration while capturing the complex dynamics of drug resistance development. We first establish the well-posedness of the coupled system by proving the existence and uniqueness of a solution under appropriate regularity conditions. The optimal control problem is then formulated to minimize tumor size while accounting for drug toxicity constraints. Using variational methods, we derive the necessary optimality conditions and characterize the optimal control through an adjoint system. Theoretical results can help to design effective chemotherapy schedules that balance treatment efficacy with adverse effects.

Drug discovery is fundamentally a process of inferring the effects of treatments on patients, and would therefore benefit immensely from computational models that can reliably simulate patient responses, enabling researchers to generate and test large numbers of therapeutic hypotheses safely and economically before initiating costly clinical trials. Even a more specific model that predicts the functional response of cells to a wide range of perturbations would be tremendously valuable for discovering safe and effective treatments that successfully translate to the clinic. Creating such virtual cells has long been a goal of the computational research community that unfortunately remains unachieved given the daunting complexity and scale of cellular biology. Nevertheless, recent advances in AI, computing power, lab automation, and high-throughput cellular profiling provide new opportunities for reaching this goal. In this perspective, we present a vision for developing and evaluating virtual cells that builds on our experience at Recursion. We argue that in order to be a useful tool to discover novel biology, virtual cells must accurately predict the functional response of a cell to perturbations and explain how the predicted response is a consequence of modifications to key biomolecular interactions. We then introduce key principles for designing therapeutically-relevant virtual cells, describe a lab-in-the-loop approach for generating novel insights with them, and advocate for biologically-grounded benchmarks to guide virtual cell development. Finally, we make the case that our approach to virtual cells provides a useful framework for building other models at higher levels of organization, including virtual patients. We hope that these directions prove useful to the research community in developing virtual models optimized for positive impact on drug discovery outcomes.

The statistical mechanics of Gibbs is a juxtaposition of subjective, probabilistic ideas on the one hand and objective, mechanical ideas on the other. In this paper, we follow the path set out by Jaynes, including elements added subsequently to that original work, to explore the consequences of the purely statistical point of view. We show how standard methods in the equilibrium theory could have been derived simply from a description of the available problem information. In addition, our presentation leads to novel insights into questions associated with symmetry and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. Two surprising consequences to be explored in further work are that (in)distinguishability factors are automatically predicted from the problem formulation and that a quantity related to the thermodynamic entropy production is found by considering information loss in non-equilibrium processes. Using the problem of ion channel thermodynamics as an example, we illustrate the idea of building up complexity by successively adding information to create progressively more complex descriptions of a physical system. Our result is that such statistical mechanical descriptions can be used to create transparent, computable, experimentally-relevant models that may be informed by more detailed atomistic simulations. We also derive a theory for the kinetic behavior of this system, identifying the nonequilibrium `process' free energy functional. The Gibbs relation for this functional is a fluctuation-dissipation theorem applicable arbitrarily far from equilibrium, that captures the effect of non-local and time-dependent behavior from transient driving forces. Based on this work, it is clear that statistical mechanics is a general tool for constructing the relationships between constraints on system information.

Single-cell snapshot data can resolve a continuum of cellular states but do not uniquely determine the dynamics governing transitions between them. However, additional dynamical information can often be encoded in a cell-cell Markov transition kernel. Existing generative approaches for single cell trajectory inference either infer transport only from population marginals, impose a symmetric geometry on the state space, or incorporate directionality through a single velocity vector at each observed state. We introduce Finsler Flow Matching (FFM), a framework for learning continuous stochastic dynamics from discrete Markov transition graphs. We use the first and second local moments to construct a Finsler structure motivated by the Freidlin--Wentzell action, where the second moment determines anisotropic accessibility and the first moment introduces a preferred direction of motion. We learn neural approximations of the resulting directed geodesics, use their Finsler cost to construct source-target couplings, and define geometry-aware stochastic conditional paths that can be distilled into a continuous generative process through simulation-free score and flow matching. Across synthetic and single-cell trajectory inference benchmarks, FFM improves recovery of withheld intermediate populations, particularly when the transition dynamics are strongly directional or anisotropic. Our results provide a principled route from discrete transition probabilities to continuous generative dynamics while retaining both directional and diffusive structure.

Predicting cellular responses to genetic perturbations is a central capability for virtual cells and a key step toward computational modeling of biological interventions. Most existing models directly map an unperturbed molecular profile and perturba- tion to the resulting observation without explicitly representing the latent cellular transition induced by the intervention. We introduce a mechanism-centric virtual cell world model that represents cellular state as a set of Latent Mechanism Units (LMUs) and treats genetic perturbations as actions on these latent states. Each LMU combines a reusable identity grounded in multimodal biological evidence with an observation-specific state, allowing a perturbation to induce mechanism- specific stochastic transitions before decoding the resulting transcriptional response. We train VCLMU through two-stage pretraining, first on around 200K pseudo-bulk perturbation profiles and then on gene-aligned single-cell perturbation data. Across six perturbation-disjoint benchmarks, VCLMU consistently improves perturbation- specific response recovery over strong baselines while maintaining competitive global response accuracy. We further analyze learned LMUs through enrichment between perturbation responses and LMU gene sets and show that they capture structured biological response programs. These results support mechanism-level latent state transition as a useful formulation for virtual cell models that aim to predict and interpret cellular responses to biological interventions.

Cellular intelligence enables cells to process environmental signals and make context-dependent decisions, as exemplified by chemotaxis, where cells navigate chemical gradients despite noisy signaling pathways. To investigate how cells deal with uncertainty, we apply an information-theoretic framework based on rate distortion theory (RDT). The Blahut-Arimoto algorithm (BAA) computes optimal decision strategies that minimize mutual information while satisfying distortion constraints, balancing sensing accuracy with distortion constraint equivalent to resource cost. We propose the inverse Blahut-Arimoto algorithm (IBAA) to compute the distortion function, which quantifies the system's decision-making criteria for realizing a decision strategy to map input signals to outputs. This general framework extends beyond chemotaxis to biological and engineered systems requiring efficient information processing under uncertainty. We validate the proposed IBAA by accurately estimating theoretical distortion functions in a cellular apoptosis scenario. Additionally, using the local excitation global inhibition (LEGI) model to simulate chemotactic responses, we compute the distortion functions from the cell's perspective. Our finding reveals a state-dependent decision criteria by the cell.

The integration of histology images and gene profiles has shown great promise for improving survival prediction in cancer. However, current approaches often struggle to model intra- and inter-modal interactions efficiently and effectively due to the high dimensionality and complexity of the inputs. A major challenge is capturing critical prognostic events that, though few, underlie the complexity of the observed inputs and largely determine patient outcomes. These events, manifested as high-level structural signals such as spatial histologic patterns or pathway co-activations, are typically sparse, patient-specific, and unannotated, making them inherently difficult to uncover. To address this, we propose SlotSPE, a slot-based framework for structural prognostic event modeling. Specifically, inspired by the principle of factorial coding, we compress each patient's multimodal inputs into compact, modality-specific sets of mutually distinctive slots using slot attention. By leveraging these slot representations as encodings for prognostic events, our framework enables both efficient and effective modeling of complex intra- and inter-modal interactions, while also facilitating seamless incorporation of biological priors that enhance prognostic relevance. Extensive experiments on ten cancer benchmarks show that SlotSPE outperforms existing methods in 8 out of 10 cohorts, achieving an overall improvement of 2.9%. It remains robust under missing genomic data and delivers markedly improved interpretability through structured event decomposition.

Accurate free-energy estimation is essential in molecular simulation, yet the periodic boundary conditions (PBC) commonly used in computer simulations have rarely been explicitly exploited. Equilibrium methods such as umbrella sampling, metadynamics, and adaptive biasing force require extensive sampling, while non-equilibrium pulling with Jarzynski's equality suffers from poor convergence due to exponential averaging. Here, we introduce a physics-informed, score-based diffusion framework: by mapping PBC simulations onto a Brownian particle in a periodic potential, we derive the Fokker-Planck steady-state score that directly encodes free-energy gradients. A neural network is trained on non-equilibrium trajectories to learn this score, providing a principled scheme to efficiently reconstruct the potential of mean force (PMF). On benchmark periodic potentials and small-molecule membrane permeation, our method is up to one order of magnitude more efficient than umbrella sampling.

Inferring cellular dynamics from unpaired single-cell snapshots requires modeling both state transitions and population growth or death. Unbalanced dynamic optimal transport (UDOT) addresses this by penalizing growth along transport paths, making the choice of growth penalty a key way to encode biological priors on proliferation and apoptosis. However, existing UDOT solvers either rely on computationally expensive NeuralODE simulations or depend on analytical solutions of conditional paths, restricting their efficiency solely to quadratic penalties, i.e. Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao (WFR) geodesics. To enable an efficient UDOT solver for general growth penalties, we first show that concave growth penalties lead to degenerate solutions where growth and transport are separated. We then introduce Simulation-free Unbalanced Dynamic Optimal transport (SUDO), a simulation-free framework for UDOT with general non-quadratic convex growth penalties. SUDO learns the conditional paths and transport costs, solves the induced semi-coupling problem, and subsequently leverages unbalanced flow matching to achieve a simulation-free solution. On WFR benchmarks, SUDO matches the accuracy of efficient, analytical solution-driven algorithms while outperforming simulation-based methods in computational speed. Beyond WFR, SUDO supports asymmetric penalties that encode proliferation-dominant priors and produce more plausible trajectories and growth estimates on synthetic and single-cell datasets.

Virtual-cell models aim to predict how cell populations respond to perturbations, but control and treated cells are measured as unpaired populations, complicating the learning of perturbation-specific effects. We present SCALE, a conditional transport model that represents cells as unordered sets and predicts treated populations without cell-level matching. A shared set-aware encoder and conditional DiT backbone learn latent transport, making endpoint supervision directly delta-aligned without an auxiliary delta objective. Across genetic, chemical, developmental and immune perturbations, SCALE recovered gene-expression changes, response directions and population structure. In CRISPR data with dominant cell-line effects, SCALE outperformed competing methods across seven metrics and maintained separation among gene-target representations rather than collapsing them into a shared region. SCALE further prioritized cytokines predicted to produce distinct immune activation and inflammatory responses. Experiments using matched PBMC samples from three donors confirmed these predicted differences. Together, SCALE enables perturbation-specific prediction from unpaired populations and supports experimental prioritization.

Learning a transport model that maps a source distribution to a target distribution is a canonical problem in machine learning, but scientific applications increasingly require models that can generalize to source and target distributions unseen during training. We introduce distribution-conditioned transport (DCT), a framework that conditions transport maps on learned embeddings of source and target distributions, enabling generalization to unseen distribution pairs. DCT also allows semi-supervised learning for distributional forecasting problems: because it learns from arbitrary distribution pairs, it can leverage distributions observed at only one condition to improve transport prediction. DCT is agnostic to the underlying transport mechanism, supporting models ranging from flow matching to distributional divergence-based models (e.g. Wasserstein, MMD). We demonstrate the practical performance benefits of DCT on synthetic benchmarks and four applications in biology: batch effect transfer in single-cell genomics, perturbation prediction from mass cytometry data, learning clonal transcriptional dynamics in hematopoiesis, and modeling T-cell receptor sequence evolution.

The simulation of the metabolism in mammalian cells becomes a severe problem if spatial distributions must be taken into account. Especially the cytoplasm has a very complex geometric structure which cannot be handled by standard discretization techniques. In the present paper we propose a homogenization technique for computing effective diffusion constants. This is accomplished by using a two-step strategy. The first step consists of an analytic homogenization from the smallest to an intermediate scale. The homogenization error is estimated by comparing the analytic diffusion constant with a numerical estimate obtained by using real cell geometries. The second step consists of a random homogenization. Since no analytical solution is known to this homogenization problem, a numerical approximation algorithm is proposed. Although rather expensive this algorithm provides a reasonable estimate of the homogenized diffusion constant.

By reducing resolution, coarse-grained models greatly accelerate molecular simulations, unlocking access to long-timescale phenomena, though at the expense of microscopic information. Recovering this fine-grained detail is essential for tasks that depend on atomistic accuracy, making backmapping a central challenge in molecular modeling. We introduce split-flows, a novel flow-based approach that reinterprets backmapping as a continuous-time measure transport across resolutions. Unlike existing generative strategies, split-flows establish a direct probabilistic link between resolutions, enabling expressive conditional sampling of atomistic structures and -- for the first time -- a tractable route to computing mapping entropies, an information-theoretic measure of the irreducible detail lost in coarse-graining. We demonstrate these capabilities on diverse molecular systems, including chignolin, a lipid bilayer, and alanine dipeptide, highlighting split-flows as a principled framework for accurate backmapping and systematic evaluation of coarse-grained models.

Virtual cells are evolving from single-task predictive models toward programmable biological simulation systems, yet heterogeneous data, models, and validation evidence still lack a unified organizational framework. Here, we present PRAXIS-VirtualCell, a modular framework that organizes biological data, predictive models, perturbations, adapters, execution environments, and validation evidence to enable reproducible and auditable virtual experiments. The system supports cross-species tasks spanning Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and human K562 cells, while using biological contracts and evidence-aware execution to distinguish supported predictions from extrapolation and abstention. By further integrating agentic orchestration, PRAXIS-VirtualCell automatically translates natural-language questions into traceable virtual experiments, providing a unified runtime foundation for trustworthy and scalable Virtual Cell systems.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Traditional scientific discovery relies on an iterative hypothesise-experiment-refine cycle that has driven progress for centuries, but its intuitive, ad-hoc implementation often wastes resources, yields inefficient designs, and misses critical insights. This tutorial presents Bayesian Optimisation (BO), a principled probability-driven framework that formalises and automates this core scientific cycle. BO uses surrogate models (e.g., Gaussian processes) to model empirical observations as evolving hypotheses, and acquisition functions to guide experiment selection, balancing exploitation of known knowledge and exploration of uncharted domains to eliminate guesswork and manual trial-and-error. We first frame scientific discovery as an optimisation problem, then unpack BO's core components, end-to-end workflows, and real-world efficacy via case studies in catalysis, materials science, organic synthesis, and molecule discovery. We also cover critical technical extensions for scientific applications, including batched experimentation, heteroscedasticity, contextual optimisation, and human-in-the-loop integration. Tailored for a broad audience, this tutorial bridges AI advances in BO with practical natural science applications, offering tiered content to empower cross-disciplinary researchers to design more efficient experiments and accelerate principled scientific discovery.

Learning the response of single-cells to various treatments offers great potential to enable targeted therapies. In this context, neural optimal transport (OT) has emerged as a principled methodological framework because it inherently accommodates the challenges of unpaired data induced by cell destruction during data acquisition. However, most existing OT approaches are incapable of conditioning on different treatment contexts (e.g., time, drug treatment, drug dosage, or cell type) and we still lack methods that unanimously show promising generalization performance to unseen treatments. Here, we propose the Conditional Monge Gap which learns OT maps conditionally on arbitrary covariates. We demonstrate its value in predicting single-cell perturbation responses conditional to one or multiple drugs, a drug dosage, or combinations thereof. We find that our conditional models achieve results comparable and sometimes even superior to the condition-specific state-of-the-art on scRNA-seq as well as multiplexed protein imaging data. Notably, by aggregating data across conditions we perform cross-task learning which unlocks remarkable generalization abilities to unseen drugs or drug dosages, widely outperforming other conditional models in capturing heterogeneity (i.e., higher moments) in the perturbed population. Finally, by scaling to hundreds of conditions and testing on unseen drugs, we narrow the gap between structure-based and effect-based drug representations, suggesting a promising path to the successful prediction of perturbation effects for unseen treatments.

Astrocytes are increasingly recognized as active regulators of neural dynamics, yet their role in large-scale synchronization remains incompletely understood. Building on the discovery of breathing cluster synchronization in neuron-astrocyte networks, we investigate whether this phenomenon persists under more biologically realistic conditions by incorporating thermosensitive neuronal dynamics, intrinsic electric-field interactions, stochastic perturbations, and delayed astrocytic feedback. Through systematic numerical simulations of a network containing structurally symmetric neuronal subsets, we show that breathing clusters characterized by intermittent alternations between synchronized and desynchronized states, remain robust across a broad range of biophysical conditions. The results reveal a non-monotonic dependence on astrocytic attenuation and feedback parameters, with intermediate values maximizing rhythmic switching through a slow push-pull regulatory mechanism. Temperature and electric-field effects primarily modulate neuronal excitability and the tolerance of the breathing state to noise, while elevated stochastic perturbations progressively destabilize cluster coherence. In contrast, the phenomenon exhibits remarkable robustness to biologically realistic astrocytic delays. Importantly, our findings indicate that the emergence of breathing synchronization remains fundamentally governed by the interplay between network symmetry and astrocyte-mediated feedback, whereas temperature, electric fields, and noise act as modulators of its stability and temporal organization. These results establish breathing cluster synchronization as a robust organizing principle of astrocyte-regulated networks and provide a quantitative framework for understanding how glial regulation shapes cortical state-switching under realistic physiological conditions.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

Virtual cell modeling represents an emerging frontier at the intersection of artificial intelligence and biology, aiming to predict quantities such as responses to diverse perturbations quantitatively. However, autonomously building computational models for virtual cells is challenging due to the complexity of biological systems, the heterogeneity of data modalities, and the need for domain-specific expertise across multiple disciplines. Here, we introduce CellForge, an agentic system that leverages a multi-agent framework that transforms presented biological datasets and research objectives directly into optimized computational models for virtual cells. More specifically, given only raw single-cell multi-omics data and task descriptions as input, CellForge outputs both an optimized model architecture and executable code for training virtual cell models and inference. The framework integrates three core modules: Task Analysis for presented dataset characterization and relevant literature retrieval, Method Design, where specialized agents collaboratively develop optimized modeling strategies, and Experiment Execution for automated generation of code. The agents in the Design module are separated into experts with differing perspectives and a central moderator, and have to collaboratively exchange solutions until they achieve a reasonable consensus. We demonstrate CellForge's capabilities in single-cell perturbation prediction, using six diverse datasets that encompass gene knockouts, drug treatments, and cytokine stimulations across multiple modalities. CellForge consistently outperforms task-specific state-of-the-art methods. Overall, CellForge demonstrates how iterative interaction between LLM agents with differing perspectives provides better solutions than directly addressing a modeling challenge. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/gersteinlab/CellForge.

Computational pathology models infer biologically and clinically meaningful outcomes from histology, but their predictions are shaped by complex, intertwined tissue signals whose roles are important to understand. Common pixel- and feature-space perturbations can produce implausible tissue, making model responses difficult to interpret. We introduce CPathOGen, a conditional latent-diffusion framework for generating paired H\&E counterfactuals with explicit controls over cellular spatial organization, nuclear morphology, and stain appearance. Cellular maps condition spatial structure through a spatial encoder, while a morphology/appearance vector modulates denoising through blockwise feature-wise linear modulation (FiLM). On held-out H\&E tiles, CPathOGen generates visually plausible tissue with improved distributional agreement after spatially guided selection, as reflected by lower Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) and Kernel Inception Distance (KID); generated cells track requested abundance and position, and measured morphology and color vary monotonically with their controls. We use these verified interventions to probe pathology encoders with endpoint heads, task-specific classifiers, and survival models. Responses are quantified using total variation distance and prediction-flip rate. We further introduce the Biology-Nuisance Sensitivity Ratio, a metric that contrasts model sensitivity to biologically motivated morphology and spatial factors with sensitivity to non-biological, stain-related nuisance variation. CPathOGen provides a practical, fidelity-audited framework for evaluating robustness and controlled feature sensitivity in computational pathology model. https://github.com/a12dongithub/PathOGen{GitHub} and https://huggingface.co/a12donhf/CPathOGen{Hugging~Face}.

Proteins perform nearly all cellular functions and constitute most drug targets, making their analysis fundamental to understanding human biology in health and disease. Tandem mass spectrometry (MS^2) is the major analytical technique in proteomics that identifies peptides by ionizing them, fragmenting them, and using the resulting mass spectra to identify and quantify proteins in biological samples. In MS^2 analysis, peptide fragment ion probability prediction plays a critical role, enhancing the accuracy of peptide identification from mass spectra as a complement to the intensity information. Current approaches rely on global statistics of fragmentation, which assumes that a fragment's probability is uniform across all peptides. Nevertheless, this assumption is oversimplified from a biochemical principle point of view and limits accurate prediction. To address this gap, we present Pep2Prob, the first comprehensive dataset and benchmark designed for peptide-specific fragment ion probability prediction. The proposed dataset contains fragment ion probability statistics for 608,780 unique precursors (each precursor is a pair of peptide sequence and charge state), summarized from more than 183 million high-quality, high-resolution, HCD MS^2 spectra with validated peptide assignments and fragmentation annotations. We establish baseline performance using simple statistical rules and learning-based methods, and find that models leveraging peptide-specific information significantly outperform previous methods using only global fragmentation statistics. Furthermore, performance across benchmark models with increasing capacities suggests that the peptide-fragmentation relationship exhibits complex nonlinearities requiring sophisticated machine learning approaches.

Machine learning models of cellular interaction dynamics hold promise for understanding cell behavior. Natural killer (NK) cell cytotoxicity is a prominent example of such interaction dynamics and is commonly studied using time-resolved multi-channel fluorescence microscopy. Although tumor cell death events can be annotated at single frames, NK cytotoxic outcome emerges over time from cellular interactions and cannot be reliably inferred from frame-wise classification alone. We introduce BLINK, a trajectory-based recurrent state-space model that serves as a cell world model for NK-tumor interactions. BLINK learns latent interaction dynamics from partially observed NK-tumor interaction sequences and predicts apoptosis increments that accumulate into cytotoxic outcomes. Experiments on long-term time-lapse NK-tumor recordings show improved cytotoxic outcome detection and enable forecasting of future outcomes, together with an interpretable latent representation that organizes NK trajectories into coherent behavioral modes and temporally structured interaction phases. BLINK provides a unified framework for quantitative evaluation and structured modeling of NK cytotoxic behavior at the single-cell level.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

Scientific measurements such as single-cell RNA (scRNA) sequencing often take the form of nonnegative integer counts, whereas continuous-state diffusion models approximate this discrete structure using continuous coordinates. Building on stochastic chemical reaction networks (CRNs), a class of count-native Markov jump processes, we introduce CRNDiff, a structured framework that combines count-space diffusion with inference-time conditioning on rare subpopulations. An independent birth--death instantiation yields a closed-form transition kernel for forward noising. This kernel enables reverse sampling via forward-filtering backward-sampling (FFBS) and supports data-driven selection of the terminal noising time, eliminating the need for a validation sweep. This tractability also lets us introduce tilted Feynman--Kac (FK) steering, a method for sampling target subpopulations from a frozen generator without retraining. By tilting posterior marginals before FK particle correction, steering mitigates importance-weight concentration when the target population is rare. Using scRNA-seq data from the human heart cell atlas, we test the ability of CRNDiff to generate cell-type-specific distributions. Across the three evaluated target populations, CRNDiff achieves the highest conditional fidelity among the evaluated generative models, with larger mean purity margins for rarer target populations. Generated cells preserve marker-level differential-expression structure. Replacing real training cells for the target classes with generated cells yields downstream classification performance approaching that of the real-data reference.

Generating novel molecules with higher properties than the training space, namely the out-of-distribution generation, is important for {de~novo} drug design. However, it is not easy for distribution learning-based models, for example diffusion models, to solve this challenge as these methods are designed to fit the distribution of training data as close as possible. In this paper, we show that Bayesian flow network is capable of effortlessly generating high quality out-of-distribution samples that meet several scenarios. We introduce a semi-autoregressive training/sampling method that helps to enhance the model performance and surpass the state-of-the-art models.

This paper introduces a novel framework for DNA sequence generation, comprising two key components: DiscDiff, a Latent Diffusion Model (LDM) tailored for generating discrete DNA sequences, and Absorb-Escape, a post-training algorithm designed to refine these sequences. Absorb-Escape enhances the realism of the generated sequences by correcting `round errors' inherent in the conversion process between latent and input spaces. Our approach not only sets new standards in DNA sequence generation but also demonstrates superior performance over existing diffusion models, in generating both short and long DNA sequences. Additionally, we introduce EPD-GenDNA, the first comprehensive, multi-species dataset for DNA generation, encompassing 160,000 unique sequences from 15 species. We hope this study will advance the generative modelling of DNA, with potential implications for gene therapy and protein production.

Causal discovery aims to uncover the underlying causal relationships given data generated from a system. The goal, however, is not merely to predict causal edges given data, but also to be able to interpret and explain either observed or hypothesized phenomena, such as a particularly large causal effect. We consider this task of conditional causal discovery and cast it as a Bayesian inference problem, in which we target the posterior over causal graphs and parameters conditional on an event such as a causal-effect constraint. Unfortunately, this poses a computational challenge: existing approaches to Bayesian causal discovery struggle when the event has small posterior mass. To address this, we adapt rare-event estimation techniques to perform inference the joint graph-parameter space. Our method gradually drives a particle population toward the constrained region while maintaining samples that approximate the conditional posterior. Empirical evaluation on synthetic graphs validates the accuracy of our approach at small and large scales, and we show in a case study on the Sachs protein dataset how our method can be used to aid scientific exploration by providing pathway-level summaries.

In this paper we consider a particular class of solutions of the Rayleigh-Boltzmann equation, known in the nonlinear setting as homoenergetic solutions, which have the form gleft( x,v,t right) =fleft( v-Lleft( tright)x,tright) where the matrix L(t) describes a shear flow deformation. We began this analysis in [22] where we rigorously proved the existence of a stationary non-equilibrium solution and established the different behaviour of the solutions for small and large values of the shear parameter, for cut-off collision kernels with homogeneity parameter 0leq gamma <1, including Maxwell molecules and hard potentials. In this paper, we concentrate in the case where the deformation term dominates the collision term for large times (hyperbolic-dominated regime). This occurs for collision kernels with gamma < 0 and in particular we focus on gamma in (-1,0). In such a hyperbolic-dominated regime, it appears challenging to provide a clear description of the long-term asymptotics of the solutions. Here we present a formal analysis of the long-time asymptotics for the distribution of velocities and provide the explicit form for the asymptotic profile. Additionally, we discuss the different asymptotic behaviour expected in the case of homogeneity gamma < -1. Furthermore, we provide a probabilistic interpretation describing a stochastic process consisting in a combination of collisions and shear flows. The tagged particle velocity {v(t)}_{tgeq 0} is a Markov process that arises from the combination of free flights in a shear flow along with random jumps caused by collisions.

Self-propelled particles that only repel one another can still separate into a dense and a dilute phase, a process known as motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). In a clean system the domains coarsen like any conserved mixture: domains grow as ell(t)sim t^{1/3}. Living and synthetic swimmers, however, move through rough, porous, or patterned surroundings. Using large-scale simulations of active Brownian particles, we ask how frozen heterogeneity changes MIPS coarsening. We introduce disorder in two ways, as a quenched random force field acting on particle positions and as a quenched random torque field acting on their orientations. Both destroy Lifshitz-Slyozov growth. A transient power law with a disorder-dependent exponent gives way to activated dynamics in which the effective dynamic exponent grows without bound and domains grow at most logarithmically. The crossover obeys the scaling form known from the random-field Ising model, and the domain morphology depends on disorder strength, so superuniversality fails. The two kinds of disorder act through different mechanisms. Random forces trap particles in the sinks of a random drift field once the drift beats self-propulsion. Random torques act as a sign-random, quenched chirality that erodes persistence and lowers the local Péclet number toward its critical value. Our results show that quenched disorder is a relevant perturbation for the kinetics of active phase separation and connect MIPS coarsening to the physics of pinned interfaces in disordered magnets.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a strategy for accelerating saddle point searches on high-dimensional energy surfaces by reducing the number of times the energy and its derivatives with respect to atomic coordinates need to be evaluated. The computational overhead in the hyperparameter optimization can, however, be large and make the approach inefficient. Failures can also occur if the search ventures too far into regions that are not represented well enough by the GP model. Here, these challenges are resolved by using geometry-aware optimal transport measures and an active pruning strategy using a summation over Wasserstein-1 distances for each atom-type in farthest-point sampling, selecting a fixed-size subset of geometrically diverse configurations to avoid rapidly increasing cost of GP updates as more observations are made. Stability is enhanced by permutation-invariant metric that provides a reliable trust radius for early-stopping and a logarithmic barrier penalty for the growth of the signal variance. These physically motivated algorithmic changes prove their efficacy by reducing to less than a half the mean computational time on a set of 238 challenging configurations from a previously published data set of chemical reactions. With these improvements, the GP approach is established as, a robust and scalable algorithm for accelerating saddle point searches when the evaluation of the energy and atomic forces requires significant computational effort.

Can a micron sized sack of interacting molecules understand, and adapt to a constantly-fluctuating environment? Cellular life provides an existence proof in the affirmative, but the principles that allow for life's existence are far from being proven. One challenge in engineering and understanding biochemical computation is the intrinsic noise due to chemical fluctuations. In this paper, we draw insights from machine learning theory, chemical reaction network theory, and statistical physics to show that the broad and biologically relevant class of detailed balanced chemical reaction networks is capable of representing and conditioning complex distributions. These results illustrate how a biochemical computer can use intrinsic chemical noise to perform complex computations. Furthermore, we use our explicit physical model to derive thermodynamic costs of inference.

Recent work in scientific machine learning (SciML) has focused on incorporating partial differential equation (PDE) information into the learning process. Much of this work has focused on relatively ``easy'' PDE operators (e.g., elliptic and parabolic), with less emphasis on relatively ``hard'' PDE operators (e.g., hyperbolic). Within numerical PDEs, the latter problem class requires control of a type of volume element or conservation constraint, which is known to be challenging. Delivering on the promise of SciML requires seamlessly incorporating both types of problems into the learning process. To address this issue, we propose ProbConserv, a framework for incorporating conservation constraints into a generic SciML architecture. To do so, ProbConserv combines the integral form of a conservation law with a Bayesian update. We provide a detailed analysis of ProbConserv on learning with the Generalized Porous Medium Equation (GPME), a widely-applicable parameterized family of PDEs that illustrates the qualitative properties of both easier and harder PDEs. ProbConserv is effective for easy GPME variants, performing well with state-of-the-art competitors; and for harder GPME variants it outperforms other approaches that do not guarantee volume conservation. ProbConserv seamlessly enforces physical conservation constraints, maintains probabilistic uncertainty quantification (UQ), and deals well with shocks and heteroscedasticities. In each case, it achieves superior predictive performance on downstream tasks.

Neural network (NN) potentials promise highly accurate molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within the computational complexity of classical MD force fields. However, when applied outside their training domain, NN potential predictions can be inaccurate, increasing the need for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). Bayesian modeling provides the mathematical framework for UQ, but classical Bayesian methods based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are computationally intractable for NN potentials. By training graph NN potentials for coarse-grained systems of liquid water and alanine dipeptide, we demonstrate here that scalable Bayesian UQ via stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) yields reliable uncertainty estimates for MD observables. We show that cold posteriors can reduce the required training data size and that for reliable UQ, multiple Markov chains are needed. Additionally, we find that SG-MCMC and the Deep Ensemble method achieve comparable results, despite shorter training and less hyperparameter tuning of the latter. We show that both methods can capture aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty reliably, but not systematic uncertainty, which needs to be minimized by adequate modeling to obtain accurate credible intervals for MD observables. Our results represent a step towards accurate UQ that is of vital importance for trustworthy NN potential-based MD simulations required for decision-making in practice.

Denoising diffusion models, a class of generative models, have garnered immense interest lately in various deep-learning problems. A diffusion probabilistic model defines a forward diffusion stage where the input data is gradually perturbed over several steps by adding Gaussian noise and then learns to reverse the diffusion process to retrieve the desired noise-free data from noisy data samples. Diffusion models are widely appreciated for their strong mode coverage and quality of the generated samples despite their known computational burdens. Capitalizing on the advances in computer vision, the field of medical imaging has also observed a growing interest in diffusion models. To help the researcher navigate this profusion, this survey intends to provide a comprehensive overview of diffusion models in the discipline of medical image analysis. Specifically, we introduce the solid theoretical foundation and fundamental concepts behind diffusion models and the three generic diffusion modelling frameworks: diffusion probabilistic models, noise-conditioned score networks, and stochastic differential equations. Then, we provide a systematic taxonomy of diffusion models in the medical domain and propose a multi-perspective categorization based on their application, imaging modality, organ of interest, and algorithms. To this end, we cover extensive applications of diffusion models in the medical domain. Furthermore, we emphasize the practical use case of some selected approaches, and then we discuss the limitations of the diffusion models in the medical domain and propose several directions to fulfill the demands of this field. Finally, we gather the overviewed studies with their available open-source implementations at https://github.com/amirhossein-kz/Awesome-Diffusion-Models-in-Medical-Imaging.

Interrogating the evolution of biological changes at early stages of life requires longitudinal profiling of molecules, such as DNA methylation, which can be challenging with children. We introduce a probabilistic and longitudinal machine learning framework based on multi-mean Gaussian processes (GPs), accounting for individual and gene correlations across time. This method provides future predictions of DNA methylation status at different individual ages while accounting for uncertainty. Our model is trained on a birth cohort of children with methylation profiled at ages 0-4, and we demonstrated that the status of methylation sites for each child can be accurately predicted at ages 5-7. We show that methylation profiles predicted by multi-mean GPs can be used to estimate other phenotypes, such as epigenetic age, and enable comparison to other health measures of interest. This approach encourages epigenetic studies to move towards longitudinal design for investigating epigenetic changes during development, ageing and disease progression.

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

Modeling cellular states and predicting their responses to perturbations are central challenges in computational biology and the development of virtual cells. Existing foundation models for single-cell transcriptomics provide powerful static representations, but they do not explicitly model the distribution of cellular states for generative simulation. Here, we introduce Lingshu-Cell, a masked discrete diffusion model that learns transcriptomic state distributions and supports conditional simulation under perturbation. By operating directly in a discrete token space that is compatible with the sparse, non-sequential nature of single-cell transcriptomic data, Lingshu-Cell captures complex transcriptome-wide expression dependencies across approximately 18,000 genes without relying on prior gene selection, such as filtering by high variability or ranking by expression level. Across diverse tissues and species, Lingshu-Cell accurately reproduces transcriptomic distributions, marker-gene expression patterns and cell-subtype proportions, demonstrating its ability to capture complex cellular heterogeneity. Moreover, by jointly embedding cell type or donor identity with perturbation, Lingshu-Cell can predict whole-transcriptome expression changes for novel combinations of identity and perturbation. It achieves leading performance on the Virtual Cell Challenge H1 genetic perturbation benchmark and in predicting cytokine-induced responses in human PBMCs. Together, these results establish Lingshu-Cell as a flexible cellular world model for in silico simulation of cell states and perturbation responses, laying the foundation for a new paradigm in biological discovery and perturbation screening.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Understanding cellular trajectories via time-resolved single-cell transcriptomics is vital for studying development, regeneration, and disease. A key challenge is inferring continuous trajectories from discrete snapshots. Biological complexity stems from stochastic cell fate decisions, temporal proliferation changes, and spatial environmental influences. Current methods often use deterministic interpolations treating cells in isolation, failing to capture the probabilistic branching, population shifts, and niche-dependent signaling driving real biological processes. We introduce Manifold Interpolating Optimal-Transport Flow (MIOFlow) 2.0. This framework learns biologically informed cellular trajectories by integrating manifold learning, optimal transport, and neural differential equations. It models three core processes: (1) stochasticity and branching via Neural Stochastic Differential Equations; (2) non-conservative population changes using a learned growth-rate model initialized with unbalanced optimal transport; and (3) environmental influence through a joint latent space unifying gene expression with spatial features like local cell type composition and signaling. By operating in a PHATE-distance matching autoencoder latent space, MIOFlow 2.0 ensures trajectories respect the data's intrinsic geometry. Empirical comparisons show expressive trajectory learning via neural differential equations outperforms existing generative models, including simulation-free flow matching. Validated on synthetic datasets, embryoid body differentiation, and spatially resolved axolotl brain regeneration, MIOFlow 2.0 improves trajectory accuracy and reveals hidden drivers of cellular transitions, like specific signaling niches. MIOFlow 2.0 thus bridges single-cell and spatial transcriptomics to uncover tissue-scale trajectories.

Many scientific datasets, such as molecular conformational ensembles or single-cell tissue measurements, are naturally modeled as meta-distributions: distributions over probability measures on non-Euclidean domains. Existing generative methods largely assume Euclidean geometry and fail to capture this structure. We introduce Riemannian Wasserstein Entropic Flow Matching (RWEFM), a generative framework on the Wasserstein space P_2(M) of a Riemannian manifold (M,g). RWEFM is trained by regressing a neural vector field onto Riemannian optimal transport velocities, using McCann displacement interpolations as conditional paths. We confirm theoretically that this construction leads to a valid flow matching approach on P_2(M) and introduce the Riemannian Entropic Map, a GPU-efficient approximation of the optimal transport map on manifolds. Our experiments show that by respecting the intrinsic geometry of the data, RWEFM can generate whole single-cell samples in hyperspherical latent spaces and protein conformational ensembles on the torus. As RWEFM requires only a geodesic distance and a projection operator, it is not restricted to manifolds with closed-form geometry, which we demonstrate by generating distributions on a general triangulated mesh.

In recent years, diffusion models trained on equilibrium molecular distributions have proven effective for sampling biomolecules. Beyond direct sampling, the score of such a model can also be used to derive the forces that act on molecular systems. However, while classical diffusion sampling usually recovers the training distribution, the corresponding energy-based interpretation of the learned score is often inconsistent with this distribution, even for low-dimensional toy systems. We trace this inconsistency to inaccuracies of the learned score at very small diffusion timesteps, where the model must capture the correct evolution of the data distribution. In this regime, diffusion models fail to satisfy the Fokker--Planck equation, which governs the evolution of the score. We interpret this deviation as one source of the observed inconsistencies and propose an energy-based diffusion model with a Fokker--Planck-derived regularization term to enforce consistency. We demonstrate our approach by sampling and simulating multiple biomolecular systems, including fast-folding proteins, and by introducing a state-of-the-art transferable Boltzmann emulator for dipeptides that supports simulation and achieves improved consistency and efficient sampling. Our code, model weights, and self-contained JAX and PyTorch notebooks are available at https://github.com/noegroup/ScoreMD.

Forensic histopathology, essential for determining cause of death and disease diagnosis, is severely impeded by postmortem autolysis, i.e., an irreversible, stochastic degradation process that distorts tissue morphology and introduces diagnostic subjectivity, thereby underscoring the value of restoring autolyzed images to a diagnostically plausible, pre-autolysis state for improving objectivity in forensic practice. This restoration task is fundamentally challenging due to the large, non-deterministic morphological changes caused by autolysis and the infeasibility of pixel-wise paired data, which invalidates assumptions underlying supervised and cycle/structure-consistent unpaired translation methods. To address this, we formalize forensic histopathology autolysis restoration as a new task: under unpaired supervision, transform postmortem images with severe autolysis into diagnostically meaningful ``antemortem'' representations. We contribute AutoPath, the first homologous yet unpaired dataset for this problem, constructed by splitting specimens into adjacent tissue blocks---one processed immediately, the other exposed to induce autolysis---yielding nearly ten thousand 10times patches from 69 cases with varying liver conditions. We further frame the problem as a Schrödinger Bridge between the autolyzed and non-autolyzed distributions, offering a principled approach to modeling stochastic, severe morphological degradation. Critically, we demonstrate the misalignment of generic image-level generative metrics (e.g., FID) with diagnostic utility and propose a forensically grounded, slide-level diagnostic distribution consistency evaluation. Overall, this work establishes a reproducible benchmark (encompassing task definition, a real-world dataset, and an evaluation methodology) toward rigorous and practically meaningful progress in autolysis restoration for forensic pathology.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

The advent of Scientific Machine Learning has heralded a transformative era in scientific discovery, driving progress across diverse domains. Central to this progress is uncovering scientific laws from experimental data through symbolic regression. However, existing approaches are dominated by heuristic algorithms or data-hungry black-box methods, which often demand low-noise settings and lack principled uncertainty quantification. Motivated by interpretable Statistical Artificial Intelligence, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian framework for symbolic regression that represents scientific laws as ensembles of tree-structured symbolic expressions endowed with a regularized tree prior. This coherent probabilistic formulation enables full posterior inference via an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, yielding a balance between predictive accuracy and structural parsimony. To guide symbolic model selection, we develop a marginal posterior-based criterion adhering to the Occam's window principle and further quantify structural fidelity to ground truth through a tailored expression-distance metric. On the theoretical front, we establish near-minimax rate of Bayesian posterior concentration, providing the first rigorous guarantee in context of symbolic regression. Empirical evaluation demonstrates robust performance of our proposed methodology against state-of-the-art competing modules on a simulated example, a suite of canonical Feynman equations, and single-atom catalysis dataset.

Inference-time steering enables pretrained diffusion/flow models to be adapted to new tasks without retraining. A widely used approach is the ratio-of-densities method, which defines a time-indexed target path by reweighting probability-density trajectories from multiple models with positive, or in some cases, negative exponents. This construction, however, harbors a critical and previously unformalized failure mode: Marginal Path Collapse, where intermediate densities become non-normalizable even though endpoints remain valid. Collapse arises systematically when composing heterogeneous models trained on different noise schedules or datasets, including a common setting in molecular design where de-novo, conformer, and pocket-conditioned models must be combined for tasks such as flexible-pose scaffold decoration. We provide a novel and complete solution for the problem. First, we derive a simple path existence criterion that predicts exactly when collapse occurs from noise schedules and exponents alone. Second, we introduce Adaptive path Correction with Exponents (ACE), which extends Feynman-Kac steering to time-varying exponents and guarantees a valid probability path. On a synthetic 2D benchmark and on flexible-pose scaffold decoration, ACE eliminates collapse and enables high-guidance compositional generation, improving distributional and docking metrics over constant-exponent baselines and even specialized task-specific scaffold decoration models. Our work turns ratio-of-densities steering with heterogeneous experts from an unstable heuristic into a reliable tool for controllable generation.

Virtual cell modeling predicts molecular state changes under genetic perturbations in silico, which is essential for biological mechanism studies. However, existing approaches suffer from unconstrained reasoning, uninterpretable predictions, and retrieval signals that are weakly aligned with regulatory topology. To address these limitations, we propose AROMA, an Augmented Reasoning Over a Multimodal Architecture for virtual cell genetic perturbation modeling. AROMA integrates textual evidence, graph-topology information, and protein sequence features to model perturbation-target dependencies, and is trained with a two-stage optimization strategy to yield predictions that are both accurate and interpretable. We also construct two knowledge graphs and a perturbation reasoning dataset, PerturbReason, containing more than 498k samples, as reusable resources for the virtual cell domain. Experiments show that AROMA outperforms existing methods across multiple cell lines, and remains robust under zero-shot evaluation on an unseen cell line, as well as in knowledge-sparse, long-tail scenarios. Overall, AROMA demonstrates that combining knowledge-driven multimodal modeling with evidence retrieval provides a promising pathway toward more reliable and interpretable virtual cell perturbation prediction. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/blazerye/AROMA. Code is available at https://github.com/blazerye/AROMA.

Approximations based on moment-closure (MA) are commonly used to obtain estimates of the mean molecule numbers and of the variance of fluctuations in the number of molecules of chemical systems. The advantage of this approach is that it can be far less computationally expensive than exact stochastic simulations of the chemical master equation. Here we numerically study the conditions under which the MA equations yield results reflecting the true stochastic dynamics of the system. We show that for bistable and oscillatory chemical systems with deterministic initial conditions, the solution of the MA equations can be interpreted as a valid approximation to the true moments of the CME, only when the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation fall within a certain finite range. The same validity criterion for monostable systems implies that the steady-state mean molecule numbers obtained from the chemical master equation must be above a certain threshold. For mean molecule numbers outside of this range of validity, the MA equations lead to either qualitatively wrong oscillatory dynamics or to unphysical predictions such as negative variances in the molecule numbers or multiple steady-state moments of the stationary distribution as the initial conditions are varied. Our results clarify the range of validity of the MA approach and show that pitfalls in the interpretation of the results can only be overcome through the systematic comparison of the solutions of the MA equations of a certain order with those of higher orders.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

Quorum sensing (QS) is classically understood as a mechanism by which bacterial cells sense their own density, but environmental fluctuations make any single cell's estimate unreliable. An alternative view holds that populations pool individual estimates to reach reliable collective decisions. We investigate how a two-autoinducer toggle switch network enables this collective adaptation in fluctuating environments. At the single-cell level, the toggle switch is bistable. Membrane permeability controls autoinducer secretion and is the evolving trait. Using an individual-based model of a spatially structured population, we show that permeability evolves through a collective mechanism. Environmental frequency is the primary determinant of evolutionary outcome. Under strong asymmetry, the dominant trait reaches a high plateau. The trait linked to the rare environment stays low. It rises smoothly as its environment becomes more frequent. Total permeability stays close to a fixed budget; environmental frequency mainly sets how it is split between the two traits. When the two environments are equally frequent, no single trait wins. Both traits coexist, and noise asymmetry between the two sensing channels biases the levels at which they coexist rather than selecting a winner. Coexistence is also the slowest outcome to reach. Higher noise speeds adaptation, but the evolved permeability is non-monotonic in noise, peaking at an intermediate value. Earlier work found that more noise favors collective sensing as long as cells are correct on average. We develop a two-trait adaptive-dynamics model that unifies these regimes. Away from symmetry, it reduces to a closed one-dimensional equation that captures the individual-based results. At symmetry, weak cross-repression gives a single coexistence attractor, consistent with replicate populations maintaining both traits.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

We introduce DrugFlow, a generative model for structure-based drug design that integrates continuous flow matching with discrete Markov bridges, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in learning chemical, geometric, and physical aspects of three-dimensional protein-ligand data. We endow DrugFlow with an uncertainty estimate that is able to detect out-of-distribution samples. To further enhance the sampling process towards distribution regions with desirable metric values, we propose a joint preference alignment scheme applicable to both flow matching and Markov bridge frameworks. Furthermore, we extend our model to also explore the conformational landscape of the protein by jointly sampling side chain angles and molecules.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Recent advances in synthetic methods enable designing subunits that self-assemble into structures with well-defined sizes and architectures, but yields are frequently suppressed by the formation of off-target metastable structures. Increasing the complexity (number of distinct inter-subunit interaction types) can inhibit off-target structures, but leads to slower kinetics and higher synthesis costs. Here, we use icosahedral shells formed of programmable triangular subunits as a model system, and identify design principles that produce the highest target yield at the lowest complexity. We use a symmetry-based construction to create a range of design complexities, starting from the maximal symmetry Caspar-Klug assembly up to the fully addressable, zero-symmetry assembly. Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the most prominent defects leading to off-target assemblies are a class of disclinations. We derive symmetry-based rules for identifying the optimal (lowest-complexity, highest-symmetry) design that inhibits these disclinations, leading to robust, high-fidelity assembly of targets with arbitrarily large sizes. Optimal complexity varies non-monotonically with target size, with `magic' sizes appearing for high-symmetry designs in which symmetry axes do not intersect vertices of the triangular net. The optimal designs at magic sizes require 12 times fewer inequivalent interaction-types than the (minimal symmetry) fully addressable construction.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) which employ explicit likelihood characterization and a gradual sampling process to synthesize data, have gained increasing research interest. Despite their huge computational burdens due to the large number of steps involved during sampling, DPMs are widely appreciated in various medical imaging tasks for their high-quality and diversity of generation. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an important medical imaging modality with excellent soft tissue contrast and superb spatial resolution, which possesses unique opportunities for DPMs. Although there is a recent surge of studies exploring DPMs in MRI, a survey paper of DPMs specifically designed for MRI applications is still lacking. This review article aims to help researchers in the MRI community to grasp the advances of DPMs in different applications. We first introduce the theory of two dominant kinds of DPMs, categorized according to whether the diffusion time step is discrete or continuous, and then provide a comprehensive review of emerging DPMs in MRI, including reconstruction, image generation, image translation, segmentation, anomaly detection, and further research topics. Finally, we discuss the general limitations as well as limitations specific to the MRI tasks of DPMs and point out potential areas that are worth further exploration.

We consider Walsh's process on a star graph perturbed by the fact that its paths need to additionally pass through semi-permeable soft membranes, each located on a different edge at a small distance from the center, and each having its own permeability coefficient. We describe the limit processes as the distances converge to 0, in terms of the characteristics of the approximating ones. The main finding is that the limit process is still of Walsh type, but its parameters need to be appropriately modified. The paper is a close companion to A. Bobrowski and A. Pilipenko ``On Portenko's approximation of skew Brownian motion'' (arXiv:2601.20440), and to A. Pilipenko and G. Vilmart, ``Limit theorems for one-dimensional diffusions: reflected, skew, sticky, skew-sticky, and snapping-out limits.''

Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such as Allee population sizes. Before a collapse, we do not know where the tipping points lie, if they exist at all. Hence, we know neither a complete model of the system dynamics nor do we have access to data in some large region of state-space where such a tipping point might exist. We illustrate how a Bayesian Non-Parametric (BNP) approach using a Gaussian Process (GP) prior provides a flexible representation of this inherent uncertainty. We embed GPs in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework in order to make robust management predictions with both model uncertainty and limited data. We use simulations to evaluate this approach as compared with the standard approach of using model selection to choose from a set of candidate models. We find that model selection erroneously favors models without tipping points -- leading to harvest policies that guarantee extinction. The GPDP performs nearly as well as the true model and significantly outperforms standard approaches. We illustrate this using examples of simulated single-species dynamics, where the standard model selection approach should be most effective, and find that it still fails to account for uncertainty appropriately and leads to population crashes, while management based on the GPDP does not, since it does not underestimate the uncertainty outside of the observed data.

Recent advancements in the ability to construct three-dimensional (3D) tissues and organoids from stem cells and biomaterials have not only opened abundant new research avenues in disease modeling and regenerative medicine but also have ignited investigation into important aspects of molecular diffusion in 3D cellular architectures. This paper describes fundamental mechanics of diffusion with equations for modeling these dynamic processes under a variety of scenarios in 3D cellular tissue constructs. The effects of these diffusion processes and resultant concentration gradients are described in the context of the major molecular signaling pathways in stem cells that both mediate and are influenced by gas and nutrient concentrations, including how diffusion phenomena can affect stem cell state, cell differentiation, and metabolic states of the cell. The application of these diffusion models and pathways is of vital importance for future studies of developmental processes, disease modeling, and tissue regeneration.

Entropically driven fluid-solid transitions in monodisperse, purely repulsive hard spheres (MPRHS) are well established in theory, simulation, and experiment for atomic and colloidal systems. For MPRHS, however, coexistence is usually located via bulk free-energy calculations; the underlying microscopic balance between configurational and vibrational entropy is left implicit. Frenkel clarified this mechanism explicitly as an exchange of long-range configurational entropy for short-range vibrational entropy, but in the pristine MPRHS limit the nucleation barrier near coexistence is so high that phase separation is predicted only on astronomical time scales. Consistent with this, even unbiased simulations do not show spontaneous, equilibrium fluid-crystal coexistence; transient mixtures are mostly overtaken by a single phase; observed coexistence is still algorithmically-driven. Nearly hard-sphere colloid experiments do observe fluid-crystal coexistence, but always in the presence of unavoidable triggers such as gravity, walls, and polydispersity. We treat the hard-sphere phase diagram as settled and ask how the entropic exchange mechanism can be revealed in nearly hard-sphere colloidal simulations. We probe the mechanism on finite time scales by introducing minimal perturbations that trigger phase separation: small reductions in hardness that increase locally accessible free volume (and thus gently increase vibrational entropy), and 2-4% distributed crystal seeds. These perturbations produce coexisting fluid and crystal domains with crystal fraction, phase envelope and osmotic pressure that, with systematically increasing particle hardness, approach the hard-sphere limit. These results demonstrate that slight enhancements to vibrational entropy provide a dynamically accessible route to realizing the long-range/short-range entropy exchange required for phase separation.

Artificially synthesized Janus particles have tremendous prospective as in-vivo drug-delivery agents due to the possibility of self-propulsion by external stimuli. Here we report the first ever computational study of translational and rotational motion of self-propelled Janus tracers in a het- erogeneous polymeric environment. The presence of polymers makes the translational mean square displacement (MSD) of the Janus tracer to grow very slowly as compared to that of a free Janus tracer, but surprisingly the mean square angular displacement (MSAD) is significantly increased as observed in a recent experiment. Moreover, with the increasing propulsion velocity, MSAD grows even faster. However, when the repulsive polymers are replaced with polymers with sticky zones, MSD and MSAD both show sharp decline.

Survival analysis, or time-to-event modelling, is a classical statistical problem that has garnered a lot of interest for its practical use in epidemiology, demographics or actuarial sciences. Recent advances on the subject from the point of view of machine learning have been concerned with precise per-individual predictions instead of population studies, driven by the rise of individualized medicine. We introduce here a conditional normalizing flow based estimate of the time-to-event density as a way to model highly flexible and individualized conditional survival distributions. We use a novel hierarchical formulation of normalizing flows to enable efficient fitting of flexible conditional distributions without overfitting and show how the normalizing flow formulation can be efficiently adapted to the censored setting. We experimentally validate the proposed approach on a synthetic dataset as well as four open medical datasets and an example of a common financial problem.

Diffusion and flow-matching schedules control the signal and noise coefficients that mix data and noise along affine probability paths. Minimizing a kinetic action defined on coefficient paths, motivated by optimal transport, helps explain strong baselines but remains model-agnostic and ignores prediction error. Here we introduce a model-aware schedule construction based on fiberwise optimal transport. At a fixed time and state on the probability path, compatible signal/noise decompositions form an affine fiber. We define a fiberwise prediction risk by averaging optimal-transport costs between the true and predictor-induced decompositions within these fibers. On a fixed coefficient curve, combining this risk with coefficient-path kinetic action yields a closed-form optimal time allocation. This construction extends to general linear prediction targets, and the risk profile can be estimated from an early baseline checkpoint. We evaluate DDPMs and flow matching across prediction targets, training configurations, risk-estimation checkpoints, datasets, and architectures. Our model-aware schedules consistently outperform strong baselines, including a 38.6% relative FID reduction for flow matching on CIFAR-10 at 16 function evaluations. Each model-agnostic kinetic baseline determines its own kinetic reference coordinate. In these coordinates, fiberwise-risk profiles from independently trained models in different settings align closely after normalization to unit area. The resulting schedule deformations used in training also align, suggesting empirical universality across the evaluated models and settings. Pretrained-checkpoint diagnostics extend this normalized-risk agreement to larger conditional latent diffusion and 2-RF models. A frozen analytic allocation template retains most of the model-aware improvement without further risk estimation or model-specific fitting.

This paper presents a novel end-to-end framework for closed-form computation and visualization of critical point uncertainty in 2D uncertain scalar fields. Critical points are fundamental topological descriptors used in the visualization and analysis of scalar fields. The uncertainty inherent in data (e.g., observational and experimental data, approximations in simulations, and compression), however, creates uncertainty regarding critical point positions. Uncertainty in critical point positions, therefore, cannot be ignored, given their impact on downstream data analysis tasks. In this work, we study uncertainty in critical points as a function of uncertainty in data modeled with probability distributions. Although Monte Carlo (MC) sampling techniques have been used in prior studies to quantify critical point uncertainty, they are often expensive and are infrequently used in production-quality visualization software. We, therefore, propose a new end-to-end framework to address these challenges that comprises a threefold contribution. First, we derive the critical point uncertainty in closed form, which is more accurate and efficient than the conventional MC sampling methods. Specifically, we provide the closed-form and semianalytical (a mix of closed-form and MC methods) solutions for parametric (e.g., uniform, Epanechnikov) and nonparametric models (e.g., histograms) with finite support. Second, we accelerate critical point probability computations using a parallel implementation with the VTK-m library, which is platform portable. Finally, we demonstrate the integration of our implementation with the ParaView software system to demonstrate near-real-time results for real datasets.

In many areas of the brain, neural spiking activity covaries with features of the external world, such as sensory stimuli or an animal's movement. Experimental findings suggest that the variability of neural activity changes over time and may provide information about the external world beyond the information provided by the average neural activity. To flexibly track time-varying neural response properties, here we developed a dynamic model with Conway-Maxwell Poisson (CMP) observations. The CMP distribution can flexibly describe firing patterns that are both under- and over-dispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. Here we track parameters of the CMP distribution as they vary over time. Using simulations, we show that a normal approximation can accurately track dynamics in state vectors for both the centering and shape parameters (λ and ν). We then fit our model to neural data from neurons in primary visual cortex and "place cells" in the hippocampus. We find that this method out-performs previous dynamic models based on the Poisson distribution. The dynamic CMP model provides a flexible framework for tracking time-varying non-Poisson count data and may also have applications beyond neuroscience.

Many natural dynamic processes -- such as in vivo cellular differentiation or disease progression -- can only be observed through the lens of static sample snapshots. While challenging, reconstructing their temporal evolution to decipher underlying dynamic properties is of major interest to scientific research. Existing approaches enable data transport along a temporal axis but are poorly scalable in high dimension and require restrictive assumptions to be met. To address these issues, we propose \textbf{Multi-Marginal temporal Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching} (MMtSBM) for video generation from unpaired data, extending the theoretical guarantees and empirical efficiency of Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (arXiv:archive/2303.16852) by deriving the Iterative Markovian Fitting algorithm to multiple marginals in a novel factorized fashion. Experiments show that MMtSBM retains theoretical properties on toy examples, achieves state-of-the-art performance on real world datasets such as transcriptomic trajectory inference in 100 dimensions, and for the first time recovers couplings and dynamics in very high dimensional image settings. Our work establishes multi-marginal Schr\"odinger bridges as a practical and principled approach for recovering hidden dynamics from static data.

The purpose of this study is to present and compare three denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) that generate 3D T_1-weighted MRI human brain images. Three DDPMs were trained using 80,675 image volumes from 42,406 subjects spanning 38 publicly available brain MRI datasets. These images had approximately 1 mm isotropic resolution and were manually inspected by three human experts to exclude those with poor quality, field-of-view issues, and excessive pathology. The images were minimally preprocessed to preserve the visual variability of the data. Furthermore, to enable the DDPMs to produce images with natural orientation variations and inhomogeneity, the images were neither registered to a common coordinate system nor bias field corrected. Evaluations included segmentation, Frechet Inception Distance (FID), and qualitative inspection. Regarding results, all three DDPMs generated coherent MR brain volumes. The velocity and flow prediction models achieved lower FIDs than the sample prediction model. However, all three models had higher FIDs compared to real images across multiple cohorts. In a permutation experiment, the generated brain regional volume distributions differed statistically from real data. However, the velocity and flow prediction models had fewer statistically different volume distributions in the thalamus and putamen. In conclusion this work presents and releases the first 3D non-latent diffusion model for brain data without skullstripping or registration. Despite the negative results in statistical testing, the presented DDPMs are capable of generating high-resolution 3D T_1-weighted brain images. All model weights and corresponding inference code are publicly available at https://github.com/piksl-research/medforj .

The notions of disintegration and Bayesian inversion are fundamental in conditional probability theory. They produce channels, as conditional probabilities, from a joint state, or from an already given channel (in opposite direction). These notions exist in the literature, in concrete situations, but are presented here in abstract graphical formulations. The resulting abstract descriptions are used for proving basic results in conditional probability theory. The existence of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is discussed for discrete probability, and also for measure-theoretic probability --- via standard Borel spaces and via likelihoods. Finally, the usefulness of disintegration and Bayesian inversion is illustrated in several examples.

Causal inference is often focused on average effects, which can hide important aspects of the effect distributions. Here we consider the entire posterior effects distribution by estimating full counterfactual outcome distributions. We propose a methodology for inference on counterfactual distributions which builds upon the martingale posterior framework of Fong et al. (2023). This provides a highly flexible approach to estimating densities, distribution functions, and derived quantities such as quantiles, which coherently quantifies the epistemic uncertainty on any target estimand of interest. As the predictive recursions are based on an underlying nonparametric model (a Dirichlet process mixture model), our method naturally inherits robustness with respect to restrictive parametric assumptions. In addition, implementation of our method is typically very fast. This approach can be applied to marginal or conditional counterfactual distributions and is easily extended to an instrumental variables setup. Using the concept of almost conditionally identically distributed random variables, we prove convergence of the martingale posterior inference on the counterfactual outcome distributions for the causal models considered in the paper. We illustrate our approach on both simulated and real data. Using the latter, we investigate the effect of zinc lozenges on common cold duration, the impact of vitamin A supplementation on children's survival rates with one-sided non-compliance (analysed in Imbens and Rubin, 1997a) and the effect of job training (LaLonde, 1986).

Gene perturbation analysis plays a critical role in drug discovery by enabling researchers to investigate how interventions on specific genes influence global gene expression patterns within cells. Recent advances in artificial intelligence-driven virtual cell models have made it possible to predict gene expression outcomes for a wide range of perturbation strategies in silico, substantially reducing reliance on costly and time-consuming biological experiments. However, effectively exploring and interpreting the high-dimensional perturbation spaces produced by these models remains challenging because of the combinatorial nature of perturbations and the complex cell-specific gene expression responses they generate. In this work, we present CellPrism, a visual analytics system designed to support the systematic exploration of gene perturbation strategies for drug discovery. Specifically, CellPrism integrates clustering-based overviews to summarize perturbation outcomes, a glyph-based representation to compactly encode gene expression patterns across cell types, and coordinated views that enable fine-grained comparison and interpretation of perturbation effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CellPrism through a real-world case study and expert interviews. This work highlights the value of visual analytics in bridging virtual cell modeling with expert-driven decision making in drug discovery.

High-resolution brain imaging can now capture not just synapse locations but their molecular composition, with the cost of such mapping falling exponentially. Yet such ultrastructural data has so far told us little about local neuronal physiology - specifically, the parameters (e.g., synaptic efficacies, local conductances) that govern neural dynamics. We propose to translate molecularly annotated ultrastructure into physiology, introducing the concept of an ultrastructure-to-dynamics compiler: a learned mapping from molecularly annotated ultrastructure to simulator-ready, uncertainty-aware physiological parameters. The requirement is paired training data, with jointly acquired ultrastructure from imaging, and dynamical responses to perturbations from physiological experiments. With this data we can train models that predict local physiology directly from structure. Such a compiler would support biophysical simulations by turning anatomical maps into models of circuit dynamics, shifting structure-to-function from a descriptive program to a predictive one and opening routes to understanding neural computation and forecasting intervention effects.

Polymeric nano- and micro-scale particles have critical roles in tackling critical healthcare and energy challenges with their miniature characteristics. However, tailoring their synthesis process to meet specific design targets has traditionally depended on domain expertise and costly trial-and-errors. Recently, modeling strategies, particularly Bayesian optimization (BO), have been proposed to aid materials discovery for maximized/minimized properties. Coming from practical demands, this study for the first time integrates constrained and composite Bayesian optimization (CCBO) to perform efficient target value optimization under black-box feasibility constraints and limited data for laboratory experimentation. Using a synthetic problem that simulates electrospraying, a model nanomanufacturing process, CCBO strategically avoided infeasible conditions and efficiently optimized particle production towards predefined size targets, surpassing standard BO pipelines and providing decisions comparable to human experts. Further laboratory experiments validated CCBO capability to guide the rational synthesis of poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) particles with diameters of 300 nm and 3.0 mum via electrospraying. With minimal initial data and unknown experiment constraints, CCBO reached the design targets within 4 iterations. Overall, the CCBO approach presents a versatile and holistic optimization paradigm for next-generation target-driven particle synthesis empowered by artificial intelligence (AI).

Virtual cell modeling aims to predict cellular responses to perturbations. Existing virtual cell models rely heavily on large-scale single-cell datasets, learning explicit mappings between gene expression and perturbations. Although recent models attempt to incorporate multi-source biological information, their generalization remains constrained by data quality, coverage, and batch effects. More critically, these models often function as black boxes, offering predictions without interpretability or consistency with biological principles, which undermines their credibility in scientific research. To address these challenges, we present VCWorld, a cell-level white-box simulator that integrates structured biological knowledge with the iterative reasoning capabilities of large language models to instantiate a biological world model. VCWorld operates in a data-efficient manner to reproduce perturbation-induced signaling cascades and generates interpretable, stepwise predictions alongside explicit mechanistic hypotheses. In drug perturbation benchmarks, VCWorld achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance, and the inferred mechanistic pathways are consistent with publicly available biological evidence.

Generative modeling of crystal data distribution is an important yet challenging task due to the unique periodic physical symmetry of crystals. Diffusion-based methods have shown early promise in modeling crystal distribution. More recently, Bayesian Flow Networks were introduced to aggregate noisy latent variables, resulting in a variance-reduced parameter space that has been shown to be advantageous for modeling Euclidean data distributions with structural constraints (Song et al., 2023). Inspired by this, we seek to unlock its potential for modeling variables located in non-Euclidean manifolds e.g. those within crystal structures, by overcoming challenging theoretical issues. We introduce CrysBFN, a novel crystal generation method by proposing a periodic Bayesian flow, which essentially differs from the original Gaussian-based BFN by exhibiting non-monotonic entropy dynamics. To successfully realize the concept of periodic Bayesian flow, CrysBFN integrates a new entropy conditioning mechanism and empirically demonstrates its significance compared to time-conditioning. Extensive experiments over both crystal ab initio generation and crystal structure prediction tasks demonstrate the superiority of CrysBFN, which consistently achieves new state-of-the-art on all benchmarks. Surprisingly, we found that CrysBFN enjoys a significant improvement in sampling efficiency, e.g., ~100x speedup 10 v.s. 2000 steps network forwards) compared with previous diffusion-based methods on MP-20 dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/wu-han-lin/CrysBFN.

Accurate histopathologic interpretation is key for clinical decision-making; however, current deep learning models for digital pathology are often overconfident and poorly calibrated in out-of-distribution (OOD) settings, which limit trust and clinical adoption. Safety-critical medical imaging workflows benefit from intrinsic uncertainty-aware properties that can accurately reject OOD input. We implement the Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a set of lightweight modifications that apply spectral normalization and replace the final dense layer with a Gaussian process layer to improve single-model uncertainty estimation and OOD detection. We evaluate SNGP vs. deterministic and MonteCarlo dropout on six datasets across three biomedical classification tasks: white blood cells, amyloid plaques, and colorectal histopathology. SNGP has comparable in-distribution performance while significantly improving uncertainty estimation and OOD detection. Thus, SNGP or related models offer a useful framework for uncertainty-aware classification in digital pathology, supporting safe deployment and building trust with pathologists.

Predicting the effects of perturbations in-silico on cell state can identify drivers of cell behavior at scale and accelerate drug discovery. However, modeling challenges remain due to the inherent heterogeneity of single cell gene expression and the complex, latent gene dependencies. Here, we present PRiMeFlow, an end-to-end flow matching based approach to directly model the effects of genetic and small molecule perturbations in the gene expression space. The distribution-fitting approach taken by PRiMeFlow enables it to accurately approximate the empirical distribution of single-cell gene expression, which we demonstrate through extensive benchmarking inside PerturBench. Through ablation studies, we also validate important model design choices such as operating in gene expression space and parameterizing the velocity field with a U-Net architecture. Finally, by scaling PRiMeFlow to a broad perturbation data atlas spanning multiple datasets and employing a carefully designed pretraining-finetuning strategy, we demonstrate its outstanding performance on the H1 human embryonic stem cells from the ARC Virtual Cell Challenge benchmark.

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have achieved state-of-the-art synthesis results on diverse tasks. However, the current design space of the forward diffusion process is largely unexplored and often relies on physical intuition or simplifying assumptions. Leveraging results from the design of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for constructing forward processes in SGMs, all of which are guaranteed to converge to the target distribution of interest. We show that several existing SGMs can be cast as specific instantiations of this parameterization. Furthermore, building on this recipe, we construct a novel SGM: Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which performs score-based modeling in a space augmented with auxiliary variables akin to a physical phase space. We show that PSLD outperforms competing baselines in terms of sample quality and the speed-vs-quality tradeoff across different samplers on various standard image synthesis benchmarks. Moreover, we show that PSLD achieves sample quality comparable to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 on unconditional CIFAR-10 generation), providing an attractive alternative as an SGM backbone for further development. We will publish our code and model checkpoints for reproducibility at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

Protein design with desirable properties has been a significant challenge for many decades. Generative artificial intelligence is a promising approach and has achieved great success in various protein generation tasks. Notably, diffusion models stand out for their robust mathematical foundations and impressive generative capabilities, offering unique advantages in certain applications such as protein design. In this review, we first give the definition and characteristics of diffusion models and then focus on two strategies: Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models and Score-based Generative Models, where DDPM is the discrete form of SGM. Furthermore, we discuss their applications in protein design, peptide generation, drug discovery, and protein-ligand interaction. Finally, we outline the future perspectives of diffusion models to advance autonomous protein design and engineering. The E(3) group consists of all rotations, reflections, and translations in three-dimensions. The equivariance on the E(3) group can keep the physical stability of the frame of each amino acid as much as possible, and we reflect on how to keep the diffusion model E(3) equivariant for protein generation.

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations model the motion of proteins between conformational states, but crossing free energy barriers and sampling multiple thermodynamic conditions remain computationally costly. We recently introduced MD-LLM-1, which showed that language models can generate conformational trajectories at lower cost, but required a separate model for each protein and did not explicitly model thermodynamics or kinetics. Here we introduce MD-LLM-2, a transferable language model that generates trajectories conditioned on sequence, temperature and molecular history. Because each step defines a normalized distribution over structural tokens, the model assigns an explicit likelihood to every generated or simulated trajectory. Trained across mdCATH domains, MD-LLM-2 reproduces the median radius of gyration of MD within 1 Angstrom in 10 of 12 unseen domains, predicts reduced Trp-cage compaction at higher temperature, and generates L99A T4 lysozyme trajectories that reach published transition-region backbone structures. In alanine dipeptide simulations, conditioning on a torsional scaling parameter λ predicts basin populations at unseen couplings with a mean absolute error of 0.09 versus 0.35 for MBAR, and first-passage probabilities with an error of 0.08 versus 0.16 for a reversible Markov state model. Frame-isoentropic sampling further limits the accumulation of errors during autoregressive trajectory generation. Together, these results extend MD-LLM from protein-specific trajectory generation to transferable, physically conditioned modelling with explicit path likelihoods, and show that the framework can predict equilibrium populations for force-field parameters not seen during training, with an initial indication that first-passage kinetics can also be captured.